Member Info for Sotolo

Also thanks as ever for me Siko, you are an invaluable source of information rather than innuendo, and it is so appreciated, as are so many contributors to this wonderful board who bring different knowledge.. The big question remains for me, and it will take a while to find out, how much capital will it take to explore, how much gold will they find in their concession, and how much will it cost per ounce to get it out, presumably cheaper than Barrick etc who have no infrastructure in Egypt, especially if by Sukari? Hopefully the answers will be positive and help counterbalance the more spread out and expensive mining in Sukari.

My fear is growing that gold is poised for a big tumble just now, wish I was brave enough to sell some of my far too heavy Hoc holding.

Prof. Kitco do a weekly gold survey which I recommend taking part in, of both professionals and amateurs. Last week had a record of over 90% of the professionals voting that gold would rise. I went for fall, but didn’t expect so much. This week I also voted down against most of them, hope I am wrong. I usually think when so many are positive the all the buyers have bought. Have a good weekend all

easyp, I think that Mr Tibbs has it absolutely right, forward predictions are v hard just now, especially for this, till we have more info both from the company.....and the world

Yes Tibbs has always pointed out Kees Decker and thanks Tibbs, do ask him what he thinks now. Pardy was made aware by Kees Decker in 2016 and 2018 when Kees concluded “I take pride in forecasting in 2016 that the best was past for Centamin,” and “There are serious concerns about the validity of the open pit reserves based on a resource model using MIK as estimation technique. When amending the reserves based on actual versus planned 2018 open pit performance, the average grade drops 21% to 0.76 g/t Au and strip ratio 29% to 3.94. The two reserve cases can be seen as two extremes with the actual performance possibly in between should the resource model for mining Pit phases 5, 6 and 7 prove to be valid. The NPV5’s for the two reserve scenarios are at US$508 million and US$830 million well below the current Enterprise Value of US$1,140 million.
It is safe to conclude, despite all uncertainties associated with the cash flow forecasts, that Centamin is currently severely overvalued.”
However the likes of Tibbs and I stayed in after 2016 and 2018 for me on the basis that rising gold would help out and a whopping dividend support the price. Parley’s fault was maybe trying to give us more gold than was possible, with a higher share price than it should be, and he got caught out a couple of. times with production warnings and a tumbling share price. Hogan can’t solve the problem, just be more honest on 2nd Dec about the lower output, profits and dividends we can truthfully expect, which we hope should be enough to sustain the current share price, which I reckon needs a profit of £100m after profit share royalty and Capex, which a rising gold price would make possible, and enable a halved dividend to continue. The biggest worry to my mind is not the reduced ounces mined but the increased costs which make us a high cost mine, very highly geared to the gold price which with a fall could lead us to losses, so my eye will be on aisc projection on 2nd Dec. All only my view, and can’t wait to see what Decker and Hogan say

First Hoc is very flighty, and very risky, politically more so I think than the Centamin court case, so Argentinian and Peruvian news have an effect. However at the moment Cey could make no money this quarter, and pay a much lower divi next Easter unless paid out of reserves, (amazed when people on Cey board value Cey on past divi and profit) while Hoc has more probability of finding more PMs, exploring heavily now, while currently producing as much as Cey at a lower cost and yet valued less I think because of the risk and mine life. Yesterday’s move said to me that Hoc was itching to rise, while Cey is trying to decide if this is a base and to stay here for a while with a little uptick or carry on down. Both are very dependent on PM prices, perhaps Hoc even more so, and theses could as easily fall back to 1500 as rise to 2200, and feeling weak now. I asked last week if this would be reminiscent of straight after Trumps election in 2016, so far it has been a rerun with a short rise the a fall. Let’s hope PMs don’t carry on down like last time. I still believe real interest rates hold the answer. One feels inflation must trounces economic recovery and its concomitant interest rate rises, meaning real rates should be unlikely to rise. But maybe the recovery will be much stronger than Inthink, money printing not matter, and modern monetary theory is true. I have most of my money in miners as I really don’t think so and double in Hoc to Cey for reasons above.

Yes Noel many investors don’t seem to realise silver demand is mainly industrial while gold is for investment, hence silver’s bigger collapse with other commodities in March; so ultimately, as you say, even if gold falls we could be saved by our one third in silver (? gold). The other thing many miss is that costs per ounce are even more important than ounces mined. Prof posted on the Centamin board today that the share collapsed because of a collapse in ounces mined but actually it is because it has become a very high cost producer so if gold falls as some predict it could shortly even be making a loss on every ounce mined. It is why the thing I shall watch with both Cey and Hoc is how much they bring costs back down as ounces return. It is costs not ounces that kill miners and always has been as their costs inflate faster than the gold price.

Tiger, you say here that gold will go lower but on the Cey board I think you say you have bought as the share can’t go lower? I have followed you in buying back more Cey today as you were so prescient at the top when I followed you, tho selling a bit later so just over £2. However do you now think that gold will fall and Cey rise. I see Cey profit of under £100m next year, the big question is will they keep the full divi and pay it out of reserves, or halve it? And if gold falls further don’t we expect Cey and Hoc to continue down, if anything Hoc feels more resilient, and keener to rise on any gold bounce?

First wonderful to have another old timer Siko return, and probably the most admired person here for what he does in Egypt and what he tells us locally like no other, so a huge welcome back. Also thanks Prof and Tibbs, yes I do have peculiar thought processes (school and early jobs hated it later I was employed just for them) a mix of optimistic hope and reasons the price will rise, fighting realistic fear and reasons it will fall. I too appreciate hearing how others think the share will go and am only sorry when my pessimism is born out, I do occasionally post on ADVFN, seems to be about 3 times a month while about 30 times here, as the people on the ADVFN aren't as civilised like this wonderful board so mostly to correct them, my posts since Sept say:
9th Nov "Reminiscent of day after Trump won 4 years ago, when gold shot up to 1370 then quickly reversed and took a couple of years to get back, Let’s hope this time it is different".
1st Nov "If gold pulls back there will no profit next year and probably a much lower divi using reserves, the share price is falling because of this expectation that profits and dividends will fall. Of course we all hope that gold will soar making up for the falling output, and worse much higher costs. However gold is as likely to fall as rise so sadly Cey direction just now is a total gamble rather than investment. I remain a holder as I don’t like to trade but have sold 100k"
28th Oct "Didn’t it already bounce from under 130 to upper 130’s?"
21oct "Production not down 10% next year, but 25% on what was expected this year and costs up 25% so profits down over 50% next year on what they should have been before wall collapse. Bad imho"
1st Oct "Gold price is down not up over last couple of weeks, £40 (in the currency that matters to us); since its high in August gold is down about 6% which equates to around 15% fall in our profits and hence share price, I think our share price is currently spot on."
Tibbs I have always been a long term holder, sometimes trading a few percent of my holding when it seems very obvious, I envy others like Tiger who trade more and so cleverly sells at the top. I just plod along with the core holding and add to it. I did post on this board that I unusually sold 10% of my Centamin as Hoc, my other large long term holding, seemed to have been very unfairly sold down far too much after its Aug results, and another 10% when our wall news came out as seemed bad to me, just wish I had sold more both times. So my strategy is very simple, sit on most of it, keep building, and sell a few when seems obvious, and 20% once, this summer/autumn, when seemed blinding; I will continue to worry myself sick over reasons gold and cey might fall further, and hope against hope that gold and cey will soar, but will try to be more circumspect in sharing what I think gold and cey will do with you; very sad to put the golden flip flops away and I seem to have been too early buying back last wee

Sorry again on quite another note, I wonder if we weren't helped by Barrick saying their Argentine mine is selling only enough bullion to keep the mine running, due to the ongoing financial crisis in Argentina, in which the government has maintained currency restrictions and the forced repatriation of export sales into pesos. Hoc's San Jose is always a worry although Hoc have traditionally done stuff like buying bonds locally and selling them abroad but wonder if they still can if even Bristow can't get his money out? Gosh the stress of gold miners, and waiting to see if Centamin announce any clear plan on Dec 2nd and how bad it will be.

White Night, wish it was but pre Covid gold wasn't much higher, in fact as this year began gold was around $400 lower than this evening and $500 lower than this morning. Which of course means that those many miners that are still producing as many ounces, at the same cost, are still worth 50% more than last Christmas on average, despite today's falls. BeerStalker good luck, me too, maybe we are mad as gold could go either way

Last week I said the big answer would come today when we would see whether buy the rumour sell the fact repeated like the 2016 election when gold shot up the day we knew the result to $1370, and then fell taking 3 years to get back through $1370. However in those 3 years real interest rates rose by 75% from 2% to 3.5% driving gold down. Now in Trump's final year rates have now come down to an unprecedented -1.2%, no wonder gold soared. If we think, even with a vaccine that may be fighting a mutating virus, the economy is going to have a very tough time, so rates will remain negative, fed continue printing, and times are so dour that Biden will get a big stimulus past the Senate, then gold is good. If on the other hand you discount this and see a boom like after Spanish flu then gold is bad. To me the big difference from 100 years, as per motorbikez is that during Spanish flu governments didn't increase the huge debts from WW1 by far bigger debts to pay for furlough etc though credit did grow leading to 1929. What a wild ride for Hoc Friday and today

Prof and Tiger. we just don't know which way gold will go, but one way seems likelier. My view is the biggest driver of the gold price is always real interest rates. Gold itself is a currency that pays no interest so is worth holding/rises when other currencies are eroding, other investments like shares are falling, and interest rates fall, and worth selling/falls as economies, real rates and shares rise. So have we seen multi year double top, real interest rates having bottomed, and will gold continues down from here, with investors moving to shares, so we remain in a gold correction or even a bear market? Tiger is often right. So for me your question, rephrased, is quite simply will interest rates fall/inflation rise, ie do governments need real interest rates to continue to fall, because of the enormous financial stimulus, or are we soon returning to higher real interest rates to slow a booming economy, as activity and shares take off? I think all our real knowledge, rather than emotion, would suggest that the financial system is going to be very tough with or without a vaccine, that the huge money printing we have seen will require low interest rates and inflation, that with or without a vaccine economies are going to get worse before better, that the QE from 2009 hasn't yet been paid back...so Prof I am marginally in the second camp, however if shares are soaring then why buy gold and Tiger will be right. We all think a stockmarket crash will come, but when?

MKS next dividend shouldn’t be tillnext April, Centamin policy is to lay a min 30% of free cash flow after profit share royalty and capex, around Apr and Sept, so currently I guess a minimum of around £30m next year which would be around 2% yield, let’s hope it is considerably more as gold soars or mining recovers, but why shares aren’t soaring till we get Dec 2nd news of gold picks up. I have topped up, rebuking some of my earlier top slicing, in hope of one or other or both but bit of a gamble just now, however I am sentimental about the share not relying on the divi just now. Good luck

Big week for us, are gold and silver finally back in a bull with Biden stimulus on the cards, despite Senate, and have we just seen off a 3 month correction, or is it buy the rumour sell the fact again?

Tiger, a thrilling rollercoaster political weekend but especially for us as I think that, on a similar note, Biden should be good for gold as even without the Senate he will try for some kind of greater stimulus (the key word for us at the moment) leading to a falling dollar and rising gold. It will be nteresting to see if that gold rise starts tomorrow or it is a matter of buy on the rumour and sell on the fact. Are you back in? At the end of last week I bought back half the 20% of my Cey that I moved over to Hoc; Hoc has roared ahead as they were unfairly undervalued, 25% just last week, but are now getting to a fairer price, and Cey seem priced fairly with their fall, and lack of much gain with rising gold, the gap has risen from Cey share price being higher than Hoc, to Hoc now 140 ahead, that was lucky, now if gold rises Cey should come good as long as Dec 2nd isn't a third piece of bad news. Many of us longterm holders have been here before, and Tibbs reports very well on our new CEO

Well I didn’t do as well as you on the Cey front as I bought back 65k at average 129. Hoc’s market cap has almost caught up with Cey, which is unusual but about right as their profits should be about the same next year. It means the Hoc share price that was trailing Cey, in much of the earlier part of the year, is now an amazing 140 ahead. My Hoc are now worth nearly double my Cey, I have also bought some Wheaton now it is quoted in London, though the spread is wide..So like you I nearly sold some Hoc too yesterday at around 260 but have decided to hang on to see what happens if and when Biden wins, and if fickle PM’s are really off to the races again, or catching us out once more. Finally the truth is you can almost always buy back cheaper if you hold your nerve, with a share as volatile as Hoc, so well done.

Thanks Eva, I totally agree on the dollar, but also think that if Biden wins the $ will fall further hence gold rising, and this is quite likely as if Biden does win the vote, he won’t be as open to challenge as Super thinks, this is probably the most scrutinised vote in history, so IF Biden wins there should be a big stimulus, bad for dollar good for us. We are both saying much the same. Great to see Hoc’s undervaluation, and unfair battering at last and expected Corona hit figures, (unlike Cey’s fair battering) coming right. Have a gt weekend all.

Gold is rocketing on the belief that this is a fair election, more scrutinised than any in history, and that legal challenges by whoever loses will be like a child’s game, but many leading republicans and democrats are saying any challenge won’t work as no justification. Gold price rise is also suggesting a Biden win, expecting a resulting big stimulus, stimulus being the key word PM’s are looking for. I am relieved my Cey to Hoc move worked tho I am now crazily into them with 440k, also bought some Wheaton. So now nail biting as wait to see if Biden wins, and then if the Biden gold rally has already happened and buy the rumour sell the fact plays out, or the thought of the coming stimulus leads to PM’s taking off. Tiger have you bought back into PM’s, Prof did you get some here, still undervalued as production will now come back v fast, if prices stay or rise.....fingers crossed

Incidentally Yamaha and Wheaton are now both quoted in London too, Wheaton used to be called Silver Wheaton, the key is in the name, although now diversified to gold and rare earths so a bit like Hoc. It is huge worth over $20billion. I used to have some when quoted in Canada but gave up when stuck around $3o for years, I have been buying more since the London quote, I am incorrigable!