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Is it a bounce in the bear since August or the real thing. Also will tomorrow's news give us a lift or be the third whammy in a row as the expected news on next year means we are unfairly marked down for what is known, of will new concessions, west Africa and a good plan win through? Thoughts?

I am never thinking of selling as a long term holder, only worrying if I am mad not to as it falls and falls, but instead hang on yet again. However I have no idea if this is the real thing (your unlikely melt up) or gold/silver will fall further which seems more likely and and this is just a bounce, Apllreciate your thoughts as ever

Indeed Noel, many on these boards don’t appreciate reasons a share may fall, but I find it as useful as reasons it should ris, and appreciate your insight. I too have been topping up but a little early, maybe far too early. However appreciate how Hoc rode yesterday’s Sun Jose news, and even with a fall there ounces would remain the same overall.

I think the lancing price is people looking to next years profits that will be quartered at this gold price, lower oz and higher aisc, and not beyond to 2022 and beyond which will become cleare (hopefully) on news tomorrow

Eva thanks. I notice you post a lot on, and hold, IMM and SNG both of which have fallen a lot in the last three months. Also since you have been posting on Hoc, writing that the share and PM’s are always about to shoot up, they continue to drift. I agree with what you say about real interest rates but actually they have begun falling again, and hugely dependent on inflationary expectation. But unlike you I see no reason for gold to turn now. The trend is your friend as with the other continually tumbling shares if you chose them. Hope you are right and I am wrong but I have been gloomy while you elated for the last three months and v sadly remain so. Horrid watching, trying to decide when to get out, another few weeks like this and Hoc will be into losses.

Eva it is a bit grim isn't it

did you mean with real dollar rate tumbling a wild ride?

Eva thanks, I quite agree that the biggest influencer of the gold price is real interest rates and the two move inversely. However in my chart the real interest rate has risen a little but is still -.86%, it looks far less sharp than your chart but maybe that is the axes, we are only back to the same rate as at the end of July though of course it is the direction and outlook that count. What is your prognosis and timing.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10

Tibbs, as said you are most heartening, thanks. I hope you are right about Martin Horgan, you know more about him than I, but wholeheartedly agree on W.Africa

Eva, real yields keep rising; I thought they were lowest for many years apart from 4 days in August. Am I reading them quite wrong as that might account for tumbling gold, enlighten me please.
Also the di I is only small so won’t affect buying much before divi date, nor should proce fall be big after it.

I don’t wish to be a doom monger, just realistic: after the wall news we were headed lower. Gold is well into a 3 month falling trend that is speeding up and our share price can’t fight that. Along with POG what matters now for us is Dec 2nd: first what Cey say about aisc, second about capex spending on new exploration, and W Africa, and third and least how many ounces will be mined going forward. Gold will go down and then up, no one has any idea when it will turn. I have been saying, for these reasons, our price will fall for the last two or three months and others think I short. I never have and have rebuilt the few I sold so have 600,000 of the things so I must ultimately believe in the company. Just need to look beyond next year when could make a loss if gold falls further and there is no good news on Dec 2nd. Let’s hope I am very wrong, gold has bottomed today, our aisc is back $400 lower on Dec 2nd, there is a plan to be back over 500k oz soon, we have fab new exploration prospects adjacent to Sukarno and someone pays us a lot for some of our W Africa prospects. Tubs your optimistic post yesterday gave me hope

Sorry, now at a high cost miner, at current aisc the multiplier is now up to roughly 4 times, so a 10% drop in gold should lead to 25% fall in profits and 25% drop in gold 100% fall in profits. So more than an increase in ounces mined we need a reduction in aisc, which is partly a result of the former, but why management say they will concentrate on costs, that is what really matters on Dec 2nd.

Gold will probably fall until everyone says it is done for and going to fall for ever, never turn back up, and that could be at any price as, unlike other metals that can’t fall below cost of mining for long, most gold is not mined in the future but already exists, so it can fall below the cost of mining for a while driving miners out of business starting with higher cost miners.. The worry with Cey is it has become a very high cost mine, but hopefully after next year (when could easily be loss making) costs will fall. Of course gold could turn at any moment. It is worth remembering that what is important to profits is price of gold, cost of getting it out, and ounces mined, in that order. Everyone seems fixated by ounces mined but that matters least as has just a direct affect on profits, aisc and gold price change are geared about 3 times for Cey and rising.

Prof you forgot the 5% royalty, also to come off, and I presume Capex beyond aisc, as in W Africa, or new exploration areas, which will eat a fair bit out of your $93m, and then gold may fall, so not much profit compared to before and to current valuation, however I would expect them to pay out far more than 30% as a divi, and maybe more than 100% if profit really low or negative.

Sadly next years profits are forecast to be way down as, although POG is higher this is outweighed by the reduced ounces mined, at much higher cost, hence the share drop, hopefully however next year will not be as bad as expected, and POG will rise not fall, in which case shares should recover a bit, or the opposite, we have to wait till 2nd Dec and hope

Market, it is not time for you to say cheerio, do I understand you are suffering from ill health and old age? Well please if you are remotely up to it please still drop all of us a line, on this board; anything you contribute will be worthwhile, and although a few can be unpleasant here, like any village, most are lovely and the camaraderie and shared experience can help keep one going through difficult times. Very very good luck to you

Mark, this share is far too big for a few posters here to move, there are some like Prof, Tiger and DJ who sell when they think it has risen too much and buy back when it has fallen, others like me who keep most of them and bite our nails a lot on bad news, seeing the fall coming but unwilling to sell many as too emotionally attached, and others who never sell any. Respect to them all and all their many and to me helpful views. I would say no one has a clue where gold or Cey wil be in 3 months let alone 3 years. Only problem is if like me you want to start building a house, all arranged, but can’t bear to sell at this price even though next week it is always lower.

DJ once everyone says gold will fall, it will rise, all the exuberance is disipatingwhich is only good longer term, short term the allure of all the Miss Cyclicals is too great for all the boys at the party, until they undress them

Endeavour had big Egyptian connections. It may be rather off putting for any other potential buyer to own half a mine with the Egyptian government, so seems unlikely to me? As pointed out, the current price seems about fair based on the halved future profits, depending on Dec 2nd so, if banged down by a potential buyer shorting or selling, imho our share price would be be lower. Incidentally the Endeavour off would be worth 144p today so our share prices has sadly dramatically underperformed Endeavour, maybe that’s why after due diligence (failed) they walked away. The only intriguing thing is why a couple of our directors bought a few shares at 50% above here, maybe it had not become apparent how bad the wall is, or maybe the news will be better on Dec 2nd, tho normally Cey gives 3 bits of bad news in a row so expecting the worst ....

White Knight, gold down 10% knocks 30% off the share price. However on top and greater, I am afraid, is that that production fall which is equivalent to around another $200 off the price of gold, and the soaring aisc another $200 so Cey should be back next year to profits when gold was $1400 a year ago, not $1800, hence price has halved and around the same as a year ago. It is thus now I believe fair value value till gold falls further, and depending how bad the news on Dec 2nd to ongoing profits and dividends. Let us all hope that this is not a repeat of the 2016 election, as I worried here on this election night, when gold soared for a few hours (to 1370) then steadily fell, taking years to get back there, and instead this time my worries are unfounded and gold turns back up very soon! Otherwise we shall see lower prices, and the charts don’t look good.

We had a good discussion with Prof not long ago, about the gold price, saying that it was likely to break down, sadly it has and is continuing to fall with nothing much to stop it . The economic news coming out of the USA is better than expected, the stock market is booming as cyclical shares soar, so more money to be made there. In the long term the jury is out on what the all-important real interest rate, that is the main driver of the gold price as it affects the opportunity cost of holding gold, will do. Currently you can make more in shares.. Now the question is whether the economic recovery will lead to inflation rising faster or interest rates. If inflation gold should rise with the real interest rate fall, if the interest rate rises faster gold should fall with the real interest rate rise. That is the market’s current worry. I guess gold will be out of fashion for a while, as said over the last couple of months, the charts look dreadful. This is particularly significant Hochschild which is more geared to the gold price as such a high cost producer now, and with a third in silver even more geared to falling PM prices, boohoo!