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Edouardo must be feeling leased that he sold so many unsurprisingly wisely, or he’d be £10m worse off, presumably he thought a tumble was coming, with his broad gold and mining knowledge and experience of decades, if he’d thought it was going to 300 quickly, as some here, he presumably would not have sold just now....or that is what the market seems to think.

Quite so. They say the challenge is to have the discipline to sell when it falls but with these goldies I keep building on the falls which is good next rise but leaves me heavily overweight. Same with gold, 1500, and 2200 seem more or less equally likely to me.. Gold minnow Omi , that I had held since 2005 steadily fell 100 fold, so bought more, till I had 1% of almost nothing, suddenly exploded 30 fold in September. As you say we all choose losers as well as winners, the tricky thing is on the way down when to sell, when to double, and on the way up when to sell and when to halve .

Agree bitcoin nothing to do with Ed sale, but taking a mid/long term view Ed thought better places for his money, but even when looking long term always nice to be proved instantly right. And Eva although 10 yr treasury have risen to .92 10 year tips (inflation protected)have fallen to -.97, max was -1.01 in Aug, so we are nearly back there, good for gold or put me right thanks

As said I have held since 2005 so seen it all. However as also said I sold half on the first Newmont announcement when soars from a penny or two to twelve and then all the way back down again, so did the same this time when a second company came in and soared, I sold a quarter of my remaining around 43 and another quarter at 35, boug a few back and will now just sit with it having taken another £40k off the table as it drifts back down, as I said a moth ago looks so like a repeat, but then hope there will be another surprise to give it a boost in a year or two, and at least got some cash and my remaining cost lower

Investors Chronicle conclusion: “The march of the precious metals prices slowed in the past two months. Gold dipped below $1,800/oz and silver came back from almost $30/oz. The continued equity boom, at least in the US, and the upcoming distribution of Covid-19 vaccines could see investors moving away from precious metals. This could be Mr Hochschild’s approach – although Fresnillo investors would be in a far better place to take profits. We maintain our buy rating on Hochschild at 192p.” So still a buy and as said sold £70k of Fres
last week to buy here at ave 196, the good thing is the Hoc prive fall already, on Ed’s sale, insulates us from perhaps the first 5% of golds renewed fall, as is shown today.

Yield? This is low, around 1.5%, mostly a third or a quarter of Centamin’s, that are carrying on paying out at around 6% and the share price adjusts to give this; so we buy Hoc for future rising yield and capital value, which depends on successful exploration and rising PM prices

Maybe Edouardo is feeling smug as gold and silver turn back down, I do hope that we haven’t just seen a dead cat bounce in a bear. It has been a hard few months and looks likely to continue so, unless Eva’s Crystal ball is right. However seems too hard fighting the pull of the rising stock market just now.....

That is right and very good news. Horgan also mentioned that there will be $90m non aisc Capex on top for the next three years, which is like an extra $200 on aisc, so I reckon it will be 2024 before costs are back again, and who knows what will happen by then. However I am thrilled that the board is concentrating on costs and getting $100m out, as these are a most important part of making profit. Of course most bosses start saying they will reduce costs and increase shareholder value. I am interested in the numbers and impressed about the increased clarity. Glad that was helpful Sirius, appreciate it. Sleep tight all..

It was the key question I emailed to the presentation, as there is a total Capex figure of which a large part should be included in the All in Sustaining Cost, but some is beyond. The answer he gave seems to be an average $90m Capex a year over and above aisc over the next 3 years which in simple terms means adding $200 an ounce to the Aisc cost. Then it is supposed to come down, but the key metric for miners is these costs which are alway supposed to come down again but end up going up more. It is why at the same gold prices most miners steadily fall in value, the big question is whether gold will rise faster than costs. I always hope so. At least Centamin is now clear about how much of the Capex they include in aisc so can work out true costs, defeats me with Hoc etc

you did just what I did, just slightly better, I bought from 200 down to 189 ave 196, and £69000 rather than your £100k, fingers crossed, I imagine we will need to see some good news to show Ed's sale wasn't because things going badly, plus will need PM's to continue up and not turn down.

Thanks, yes they issued an RNS a week ago that San Jose would be back up this week and hit revised guidance, so today’s RNS is confirmation. You are quite tight that the devil in detail, would be nice to get more in general. Remember reduced staff is producing reduced gold hitting reduced target, so bit like your sheep. All best

Last week member called Bocase recommended a great book over on the Hoc advfn chat, that turned out to be very timely. The gist is that when a share tumbles you must not be a rabbit but make up your mind and either sell or buy more. So as a result of the book I bought another £70 k over Friday and this am, at 200, 198, 194 (this at 815 this morning surprisingly hard to get a quote in £25k) and 189, sadly the last was the smallest as had sold enough Fres to pay for them. But thanks Bocuse. The book also says how being exposed to many different views on a share is important for making good decisions so thanks to all the posters here for their very different views and mostly for their tolerance as this helps all imho. Please do post other ideas articles and books, now will this be an end 2013 repeat or are we back intend of 2015 and 16 when we got lift off?

This is of course good news though sadly San Jose has only “reatrted limited operations. A reduced level of staff are now on-site to oversee the final production of the unit's revised 2020 output target”. This is much lower with a resulting v high aisc around $1340, plus the company has over $100m Capex spend, but I can’t find in the accounts how much of this is include in aisc, and how much has to be subtracted from the profit. In fact I often wonder if it is the opaque accounts that put off investors, compared to Centamin whose accounts are very clear. I have succeeded in getting two friends, one a super sharp accountant, the other a great analyst (not necessarily an oxymoron) to buy Centamin, but both refused to buy Hoc because of these accounts. I asked a question about how Cey Capex was split at the Cey presentation and Martin Horgan was very clear that $90k a year is not included in aisc over the next 3 difficult years. If it was the same for Hoc they would make almost no profit. Can anyone else find it anywhere and also a clearer 2021/22/23 prediction as Cey gave?
The other things about San Jose is Hoc only half owner so not their most significant mine, and the challenge of getting profits out of Argentina without clever ‘wheezes’. But still of course good that it is producing a big even if we’ll have to probably wait for much profit till production eventually ramps up that could be a while, it’s already been 8months

TradingPlaces just so, love your post. Some of us are so loaded on this now. My view is swap between London goldies buying after their bad news, but sometimes takes quite a nerve to keep going

Thanks, especially info about his construction company. Do you (or anyone else) have an idea of how long it takes to put a sale like this together, ie when might he have decided to sell? Thanks

Me too at 194 and 189 but am probably totally mad, selling some Fres to raise funds, Really depends on how exploration goes, the politics in Argentina and Peru (which may also have been getting Ed down) and above all PM prices, currently treble whammy

Sorry Phat, my reply went before I read yours. I think the cash this quarter may not be as good as you think as still problems ramping up and super high costs as a result. Much more important is how much replacement ore we find when exploration figures come. Edouardo must have a very good overall idea how this is going and expectation for the coming year and I presume this, combined with his expectation of precious metal prices, meant like so many investors he is seeking better returns elsewhere. I wonder how right he is and thus how far share price will fall. Of course I do hope Eva’s prediction is better than the chairman’s, and we have soared by end Jan. What another depressing morning. Anyone catching knives?

Phat, as the expected the market continues to be very concerned. Although it is true institutions have paid 200 for Edouardoks shares, weighing heavy on the price is why Edouardo should sell now, when he would have made 50% more 3 months ago, and if Eva and others are right, 50% more in 3 months time. He obviously doesn’t think worth waiting so a bit worrying if the chairman, thinks that but it is spooking the market just now

Yes indeed, and as Eva says let us indeed hop gold breaks 1850, real crunch time if it carries on up and we get an end of 2015 and 17 rally, or turns back down. Also didn’t mean at all that Edouardo was insider trading but that he has a more than usually informed view of both Hoc and gold so I understand the pullback on his selling. My big question remains why now, when the share was 50% higher in Aug, but if initiated in Aug, and takes a time to pull off then it would all make sense

Thanks, my take FYI
1. The placing isn’t a usual type of placing where the shares have been diluted, it is just a transfer of shares from one shareholder to another but at a discounted price.YOU ARE RIGHT ON THIIS BUT WHY DOES A FAMILY, WHICH HAS HELD THE MAJORITY OF THE SHARES FOR AEONS, DECIDE NOW THAT THERE ARE BETTER PLACES FOR £130m OF THEIR MONEY, AND EVEN GIVE UP THE MAJORITY SHARHOLDING. SAME REASON OTHERS ARE SELLING GOLDIES AND BUYING GENERAL SHARES THAT THEY SEE SHOOTING UP?

2. Gold and silver prices are set to rise substantially into 2021. MAYBE AND MAYBE NOT, NO-ONE KNOWS, DEPENDS ON RISING INFLATION, FALLING REAL INTEREST RATES, AND COMPETING HOMES FOR INVESTORS’ MONEY. PRESUMABLY THE HOCHSCHILDS CAN’T THINK SO, OR THEY WOULD HAVE SOLD FOR DOUBLE IN A FEW MONTHS

3. H2 exploration from Hochschild should be released before the end of December.YES THIS IS ALL IMPORTANT, WILL THEY FIND NEW RESOURCES THAT ARE CHEAP ENOUGH TO MINE, NOT TO DENT PROFITS FURTHER...OR. NOT. DOES EDOUARDO HAVE AN INTIMATION OF THIS?

4. Imminent news on the reopening of their San Jose mine, which could come Monday and would give us a nice boost IMO. BIGGER PROBLEM TO MY MIND WITH SAN JOSE IS THE GOVERNMENT, TAXES AND GETTING PROFITS OUT, CHALLENGING WITH CURRENT ARGENTINIAN REGIME

5. Meeting in Feb 2021 on whether to continue to pay dividends which I think they will do. I PRESUME THEY WILL THO DIVI IS VERY LOW COMPARED TO THE LIKES OF CEY, AS BEING A HIGH COST MINE NOW WITH THE HEAVY EXPENSE OF REPLACING TIRED RESOURCES, THEY DONT THROW OFF ENOUGH CASH AT CURRENT PM PRICES TO JUSTIFY PAYING OUT MORE

6. They have cash of 196m and a tiny bit of debt which I think will be paid off in Jan. ACTUALLY I THINK THEY HAVE NET DEBT - $21m - THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN PAYING THIS DOWN

DESPITE ALL THIS I REMAIN HEAVILY INVESTED IN HOC AS A PLAY ON SILVER (EVEN IF HOC IS NOW MAJORITY GOLD). HOWEVER IF EDOUARDO IS RIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH HIS KNOWLEDGE, COULD BE A BIT OF A WAIT. SAME FOR INFLATION, AND THE REAL INTEREST RATE TO FALL EVEN FURTHER, IF THAT IS POSSIBLE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SE EHOW NEXT YEAR PANS OUT AND WHAT EDOUARDO MIGHT HAVE KNOWN. I VERY MUCH HOPE EVA IS RIGHT AND THE PRICE IS ABOUT TO SOAR, SO IF EDOUARDO, WITH ALL HIS INSIDER KNOWLEDGE, HAD WAITED 6 WEEKS, HE WOULD MAKE 50% MORE,