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I know you didn’t ask me but I do, a reason I like Hoc even if only 40% in silver

Tiger what are you expecting from Hoc tomorrow? The market has lowered price near 190? It is the opposite of Cey which a terrible 2020 better 2021?

Why no divi info that I can see, normally announced 4th quarter

Steve just answering Somnamna’s question about 2021, it takes me a long time to write these posts as I try to correct the figures and grammar, with my husband nagging me to come for our morning swim in the sea (North not Med!) . The figures are the ones I calculated after the autumn presentation, and nothing has changed other than gold up a little, as said earlier this week 2021 is very poor, with only around £30m on my matchbox, however recalculating with gold a bit higher than at presentation profit should be a bit more. For info this year, despite dreadful final quarter because of the wall, we made $730 profit an ounce on 451k ounces, and aisc $1036, next year ounces down to 415k Oz and cost upto around $1400 an ounce after the extra $90k Capex, so profit more than halved. However this quarter is the nadir, we should now steadily claw our way up, relief the market for once is looking forward, beyond this horrid quarter and even 2021 (tho share price has halved to take account and of course lower gold) as do us long term holders.

I reckon overall we should make around £30m at current gold price but rises to £60m in 2022, and if gold rises....

Because as said the halving share price has taken care of the short term, then it will move up, get a massive 6% in th emra time, and believe gold will save the day. I love Centamin and the last quarter should be the very lowest point, we didn’t quite hit a loss, so let’s look forward now

I don’t see why market should be positive on this, $1613 aisc so only $3m free cash flow, lucky not a loss
4th quarter 2019 148,000 Oz aisc 792
4th quarter 2020 68000 Oz at aisc $1613
We knew there would be no profit this quarter and next year still looking grim, but disappointing no news on W Africa concessions or anything cheerful
Hopefully share price has done its falling as this is as expected but market can be harsh
And before you blame me these are Centamin’s figures not mine, uphill now from here and after 2021 should be improving to a great 2024
Also no news on divi I saw?

If we had repeated 2019 we would have made 1100$ an ounce profit, $200m not $3

Sorry for any ambiguity, I meant the shares are highly geared to the price of gold, rather than the company has too much borrowing which is low, it means we have a volatile share which many of us love. I am certainly not sniping at the company which I respect and invest in, just lamenting how they and their workforce have suffered from the Covid lockdowns in Peru and Argentina, and relaying the management’s desire to find more gold. They said in the autumn that they would report on this in December, it would be lovely to get that report tomorrow and for it to be good. The management have made clear they need to find more to make profits for years ahead. I fully support them in their endeavour, but in mining you are up against a lot, so I am glad when management and fellow posters tell me of potential risk as well as reward.

Either google Centamin investors or even easier click the Cey live RNS button (next to share chat and share trades just under the red Centamin, it will pop up sometime between 7am and 730am usually around 720

Tibbs bought land with the house already burned down (so could build in AONB) and just the garage with tiny flat above standing. Every time shares rise and we get going again as Aug the naughty shares halve again, they are the most fickle of mistresses.

Dark_Knight, I hope you are right, of course at a big premium, what a buyer would be paying for is gold and silver in the ground so let's hope we get the promised news on Wed and have found some. Without a takeover this is a highly geared company so a recovery in production/reduction in costs/ finding more ore/ rising gold and silver could all see it shoot up, as PE tumbes to 5, however more Covid and bad production news, and even heftier Capex, could wipe out profits and see PE soar to 50. Hoc is always a flighty partner, sometimes charming sometimes just tantrums, what is it to be next, fingers crossed for some sensible and informative news on Weds that makes up for what will be some nasty production figures and aisc

Tibbs thanks for some great posts recently, even Miz seems pleased, a happy board, other posters have also been spot on and really useful in the last week, let's hope we are all happier tomorrow

Thanks Lynn! Yes I worry about both my two biggest shareholdings medium term, but I don't feel negative about the share price medium term, that is why I hold them, I just try to correct false figures and expectations only quoting what the board have told us. I feel that Cey production fall and higher costs may be, as management suggest, a short term blip, they should recover well in a couple of years and then be on a better course, I am hoping their figures for the last quarter tomorrow will be as expected, in which case still a decent profit as despite lower production gold price has been $400 higher than last year. Next year will be tougher a=so what I really want is to hear more about that, but good news on Africa or new concession might obviate this, and they have plenty of cash to get through. As I have said before fair value and a hefty dividend
I am more worried about the Hocschild figures on the last quarter, which come a day later on Weds, the joint owner of their Argentian mine, MacEwan, has already reported and they did only a quarter of the production because of Covid. Edouardo Hochschild has sold 12 % of the company, Covid on S America is getting worse again, and unlike Centamin their mine is running out, they are spending a ton on exploration and promised news in Dec which didn't come. However they are relatively cheap.
Finally the all important gold price is worrying for these shares, however I continue to hold both as I believe the gold price should rise with inflation especially if it leads to falling real interest rates, , most of all I can't see anywhere else that might make me enough to build, I am stalling the architects now....thanks again, always love views on how others see these shares mid term, as the Art of Execution says the share price is a mix of numbers and story, I report a lot on what the numbers mean but am intrigued by how others tell the story of this share

Well that’s true, though the Sukari wall collapse was a bit sudden and unexpected, but thanks Auson! I am just worrying as ever about why he sold till we get the next results, and hopefully the delayed (why?) exploration news promised for last year.

There is a reason why the shares have halved. Yes We have lots of cash because we have done well. LAst full year, 2019, ounces mined 480k at an aisc of $943, and profit $173m but next year, 2021, they predict 415k Oz aisc 1200 plus Capex of $225m, so gold has to be quite a bit higher to make the same profit. However we know this is in the share price, which is fair value. Now we have to hope fore some good news tOmorrow plus rising gold to lift us

PS this is the Last Q4 (2019) 148k Oz. Aisc 792. Sold at$1490
Tomorrow profit from this quarter should be nearly halved as extra $400 on gold price but more lost on aisc+Capex. Next year worse, as above then begins to slowly improve 2024 should be great all things being equal. Here for the long ride
Tomorrow

I don’t for a moment think Mr H was insider trading, more he has a good and very informed view of how it will do over next few years like any director with shares. That is what is worrying investors which is why some good news is needed, but I fear the market isn’t ready for Weds figures unless some good news looking forward.

I think it suggeste that many are worried that if the news is as expected the market may give the share a knock as not very good, especially on next year’s profit. However hope it will flatline.

The divi can be near halved like the share price and still yield 6%. They have the cash to cover it for the next 3 years and predict profits will be back in 2024, so we should still be getting that fab 6% which ultimately supports the share price - as long as gold keeps up at these levels or higher

I keep posting that I have no idea if it will fall further and am certainly not convinced of such. “ at the moment I am neither a seller nor a buyer, the price mainly depends on which way gold goes,” and I don’t have a clue, probably short term down, mid up, but I am certainly not going to sell Cey, a long term holding, when it could as easily rise or fall. So why sell??? Stocks could well tumble, money lose value...plus borrowing is still a real -1%. Repeat I remain very long, I am not a trader and this has a great divi plus 2024 recovery prospects plus play on gold, but many are posting wrong figures, and forgetting non aisc Capex, that I just point out to be helpful

Sorry Steve. Sadly I have not ignored Cost savings which are already included by management in the Aisc which is still heftily raised despite the savings because spread across reduced output and hefty wall expenditure. And $90m Capex is on top.