Member Info for Sotolo

It entirely depends on the ratio of gold price to costs. If aisc is 99% of gold price, then a 50% rise in gold is 4900% rise in profit, if aisc is 1% then 50% rise in gold is 51% rise in profits. Assuming aisc half gold price, then multiplier is 2. However this is an extremely long way off for Orosur

Starbright is correct, with an aisc of $900 or $1000 or so an ounce a 50% rise in gold equates to a doubling of profits. If costs are higher then the multiple on profits rises, but of course profits overall would be lower.

Sorry, results Thursday

I look forward to final year results on Weds. These should be roughly:
Gold: 175k Oz, aisc $1225, price sold $1814 =$103m.
Silver 9.8m Oz , aisc $14.25, price sold $22 = $76m
So $180m = £128m less tax and non aisc Capex, so maybe £60m??? For PE of 20 in a very bad year
However I am not interested in the past but the future the management predict for this year.
A. Production will be up a bit but still hit by declining resources, so how much will it recover?
B. Even more important how are they capping or reducing their soaring costs, partly as a result of mor expensive mining as seams run out, partly reduced ounces to spread it across, and partly search for expensive replacement resources?
C. How is this search for new metal going, and how economic will it be to mine, or increase costs further?
D. How much on top are capital costs not included in the hefty aisc, ie for the rare metal mine etc, if they tell us, how have they got their meagre San Jose profits out of Argentina, and how much tax to pay?
E. Can we ever get back to 2019 production or are we destined to ever shrink?
Hoc PLEASE tell us long suffering holder.
To then work out if Gold price is much the same but silver 50% more profitable, with all above will profits double this year, reducing PE to 10???
Finally we all hope silver price will save us from what has been a somewhat lacklustre management with falling output and rising costs,(before Covid) as with so many miners. Can rising rising PM prices Trump these, not unless they soar and/or we discover some great new resources that can actually be mined at a reasonable cost.
You did ask, that is my view, I remain a holder of just over £1m hoping for soaring silver and finally some good news!!!

one day by the law of averages McGuire will be right…

I read today in the excellent book, Money the True story of a Made-up Thing, that the first book on a stockmarket was published in 1688, and called….. “ Confusion of Confusions “. Plus ca change…

I am with Barclays Smart Investor, I discover that you can no longer transfer between spouses without a huge multi month palaver of moving shares from nominee to certificate, with registrars, then recertification in spouses name then sending back to Barclays, rather than rivals who need just a couple of clicks online, and worse they charge £1440+vat annually just for having the account, they obviously only want very small accounts. So high time to move!
My share centre shares have just been taken over by iii, should I move more to them
I am thinking of moving my SIPP to AJ Bell
Does anyone else feel safer having more than one account rather than all with one stockbroker, I know the client money is segregated but any fraud is possible, or am I iover-worrying and should I save fees on a second and even third account?
Thanks

…and of course if Arcata hadn’t been mothballed just before silver began its ascent, we would be mining more silver and making more money, I wonder if silver carries on up it will reopen - the challenge is it takes time, and in the meantime silver can fall again. I just hope we get some good exploration news on weds, as they are prospecting at Arcata too.

, the 4th quarter report 3 weeks ago, the expectation for the whole of 2020 is Gold produced 175k Oz, aisc $1225, achieved gold price $1814 =$103m. Silver produced 9.8m Oz , aisc $14.25, silver price achieved $22 per Oz = $76m. So 42% silver
However you are of course completely right, since the prices achieved in 2020 the gold silver ratio has fallen so 2020 results redone to reflect current PM prices rather than what they achieved in 2020 reverses the percentages of silver and gold. I get 2020 production (reduced by Covid) at current PM prices. Gold produced 175k Oz, aisc $1225, current gold price $1840 =$107m. Silver 9.8m Oz, $14.25 aisc, price $27.25=$127m So thrilling that the gold silver ratio having fallen from near 110 to below 70 has returned us to being a primary silver producer, though let’s see predictions on weds, and thanks as ever

Extraordinary how informed some of these articles are but then they spend much less time looking at Hoc than we do. Hoc is currently primarily a gold producer, especially since Arcata shut over a year ago, and will be unless or until silver rises and gold doesn’t, yet the article says “ Most of the group’s revenue comes from silver. But it also mines and sells some gold,”. Hoc does provide silver exposure but sadly only v roughly about 40% of profit now

Phew what a relief to read some intelligent sense about a market we all choose to take part in, that it rises when more buyers than sellers on expected future success and vice versa, rather than usual late cycle conspiracy theories

You haven’t taken account of production fall (exc Covid shutdowns) and costs up so profits barely up despite PM rise and share price around right till either production rises back up, aisc falls to where it was, non aisc Capex costs fall, or PM’s rise or ideally all 4. All eyes on 18th

Thank you Tornadotony, on both counts, the sums that again show the share price is about right with fallen production higher costs and chiselled profits, and second the reason we hold - not Cey getting it right but just not getting it wrong yet again and then what a great debt free geared play on gold if we believe it will rise and your article’s reasons for that. Thanks

Yes bullsafore this thread is for silver and in particular Hochschild that mine it. The person you quote saying masks are dangerous is actually an opthamologist, I am not sure how they affect eyes, but all the research shows they reduce Covid transmission, the surgeon general even recommends two, and they have been worn daily in the Far East reducing numbers and with no ill affects. More relevant to this board,it is now just a week tomorrow till Hoc annual results, which we know will have some lousy figures from the reduced production at the start of the year, then the Covid shutdowns, but hopefully gold and silver prices have helped, and we will get some good news on next year expectations

Production is only picking up to the reduced output originally cut just over a year ago. Sadly the company predicts, after Covid recovery, production will still be way below a couple of years’ ago, why the shares are on hold and we very keenly await some much needed good exploration news, hopefully with the forthcoming annual results.

Sadly Kingworld and others spend their lives writing mostly about how gold and silver will rise and trying to enliven the market to improve their profits. Gold and silver sometimes go up sometimes down, so KW and contributor are perforce sometimes right, but in this market less than a dart throwing monkey. To suggest gold should be $250 because it rose to $50, when the Hunt brothers’ manipulation tried to corner the market, doesn’t hold as the rules were changed, the Hunts went bankrupt. Gold and silver may go up may go down, the best time to buy is when they are out of fashion imho, so I don’t like this froth which just attracts the shorters .imho. Clever EVA overcoming greed and hype to sell yesterday. I just go on holding through the vicissudes

Overall with the fall in the silver ratio Hoc is just under half silver so the percentage rise in silver translates to about 1.3 times in profits and share price, so this mornings 10% god rise should have been about 13% on Hoc, plus 1% on gold is about 2% on profit, the rise is a bit more as the market obviously expect more, and some think Hoc is a majority silver miner, however if the price rises much more it will be! Wouldn’t it be brilliant if this keeps going and Eva is proved right just a day or two late

Here we go, both up around 15%!!

Yes no price yet for even buying or selling 20

I quite agree with yo Noel about KWN and other touts, however unlike Bob Moriarty what I read on gold is not all positive, in fact see below I remarked on how unloved Hochschild and PM’s were just a couple of days ago, with fewer and fewer people posting, on this board. I still happily read as many saying gold may fall, like wise ie Todd Bubba etc, as rise. I have no idea which short term but longer term when other markets and currencies tumble my question remains, will gold finally rise and will it take miners with it?