Member Info for Sotolo

Very much hope so, tho profits Willie tiny this year unless gold turns

I think it is exactly the opposite, it is inflation and thus falling real rates that will eventually send gold up again, so a ting fear of inflation will hinder not help

Quite so, however it all depends a lot not only on quantity found but on how much it looks like the gold will cost to get out, as gold steadily falls it will approach the break even price of some mines - companies like Centamin are only £200 an ounce off making losses, Hochschild has already had to mothball mines where extraction cost was more than silver price

As a holder for almost two decades of course it is the long term that interests me. I was thinking of the share price in 6 months, could well be 17p (Webb’s) or 27p or 10p or 47p. Overall the balance suggests this is slightly mor likely to rise than fall, but if gold takes a tumble making reserves worth less and the sample aren’t good this could easily tumble, and conversely soar. Whatever we know it is very narrowly held as so few, so prone to large moves, large spreads and short term manipulation. Also no new shares were issued at 25.5p that I know of, but considerably less and well below today’s price, to attract the buyers they also included some attached warrants

Thanks Webb Midle East Bhargav, it is most helpful to have all your view on where this will go, far better than analysts who tend to think in a herd, so please all be brave and post if you think this share will fall rise or stay the same, all seem about equally likely to me, so I love other thoughts.

Tiger, with gold looking like it is in a big bear now rather than just a correction (over 20% in sterling and the recent death cross) don’t you think that is likely to take Platinum and Palladium down with it, in which case won’t THS get cheaper?

Steve. I am not just a bear I report what I see and made very clear earlier today that I have no idea which way gold will go and I can’t see anyone can just now, which is just what worries investors. It would seem from the article that Hersov is interested in providing capital a bit like a royalty company while Barrick etc think now is not a time to buy mines with the gold outlook so uncertain when they should be able to get them a lot cheaper, like us with gold shares if we are lucky enough to hold any cash.. We need both sides on this board, I was very (over) bullish in spring and summer and have become increasingly bearish through autumn and winter - I just wish I had been more so and sold more like Tiger. Over the past 6 months the naysayers have been sadly right so important to listen also to them rather than just decry them. I notice even Gary Wagner, normally bullish, is now saying we have entered an Elliot down wave from the long rise since the start of the century, there was an ominous death cross, for me it is more important than ever to get as many views as possible on this board. Once everyone is bearish will be when gold turns, but I guess at a point rather lower than we are now

Gosh so even Bristow thinks gold will go down, before up, over at Hochschild both the Chairman and CEO have sold around a third of their shares, at about a third down form their top..

Thanks Mr T. I just don’t know which way gold will go just now, and I don’t think anyone does, these are very unusual financial times. However if it falls another 20%, as it has since Aug in sterling, then we would be loss making, if it rises back 20% we would be making very good profits. Either way the company definitely should not give up, nor us holders who should be realistic that we might have to wait a couple of years for the mining to improve for this to come good. Or much sooner if gold turns back up. And Thanks Steve Jones for the kitco link, tho even more depressing than me, suggesting $1600 next week, but an eventual recovery. - $1600 gold would see Cey back in the 70’s I guess but I very much hope not.
A final thought when I am totally gloomy the market usually turns, proving me quite wrong, maybe I am not gloomy enough yet

a million million in a British trillion,
And in reply to where the bottom for Cey is, who knows? If gold is in a long down wave as rates rise then Cey could go a lot lower as/if it enters loss this year, with such high costs; however there should be a big gold bounce in the not too distant future before the fall continues taking Cey up, and next year we should look forward to 2023 when our break even point falls by $300 or so, hoping gold doesn’t fall by more. And we have the huge divi tho a couple of years of losses might mean that is revisited. Or we could have hit the bottom in gold and shoot up from here but I don’t think so

Yes Cassandra, good for gold, terrible as usual for miners whose gold runs out and costs rise faster than gold price rise replace lost profits. Just now in the shorter term rising interest rates and hence gold price, are hammering gold shares, should one get out for a bit, decline getting increasingly ugly? Profit down to 300 an ounce on a little over 200000 ounces that we get the profit from after profit share, maybe £45k. A 10% fall in gold now will translate to 50% fall I profit, we are increasingly geared as difference between cost and selling falls. Hugely saddens me to say but we are now overvalued at this price, but does one sell in expectation of gold tumble accelerating? Or hang on a couple of years in hope of recovery eventually?

Gosh first chairman sells a third of his shares, then they hedge silver at 27 worried it will fall, then CEO sells a third, they might see PM’s really tumbling. Hope they are wrong, but looking ominous

I think Horgan is doing the only thing he can to increase the share price by trying to increase profits, which will take a couple of years. If gold falls $300 we will be in loss this year and next but have the cash to survive that, and then our costs come down and ounces up a bit but only as much as are relatively cheap to mine and work long term

James Rutherford bought £150k at start of Oct and £120k in December at prices around 150 and 120 so that is a sizeable vote of confidence. - of course he may not have guessed gold would fall 20% (in sterling which is what counts)

The bounce is the rise since yesterday morning, it could be the bottom or a nip upwards to catch investors out and on down which is called a dead cat bounce particularly after a 40% fall. I favour the former and hope so but could be either till we convincingly get past 30 or below 24

Yes, or dead cat bounce, we will see, I topped up yesterday morning but will now wait

Yes indeed, gold has fallen 20% from £1567, now in a bear, almost impossible to fight that, which takes 60% off our profits, before the wall lowered production. How long this now 6 month gold correction that has now become a gold bear will continue we do not know, but it could accelerate, I do hope not. Our share hasn’t taken full account of the gold fall yet in the hope that gold will rise and so will our production in 2023. Let us hope for both, but as Razor says it is market fundamentals

Rock on. How do you get to half the forward PE, hope my figures are wrong and would love to know how you calculated yours, most calculations. Mine are: 415k Oz sold at $1800 less $1400 costs (aisc and non aisc) = $166k less 5% royalty and 50% profit share = $79k, which in sterling is £56,000. Market cap £1.255billion, so PE =22.5 with a fair wind but with any other costs more likely 25.

Fres a bit, lightened them when they were 1200 and switched to Orosur which is my gambling share, Centamin likewise, Wheaton which used to be called silver Wheaton,, dipped a toe into Tharisa thanks to Tiger here, and lots and lots of Hoc (40% of my shares), used to have Poly a long time ago, this is lovely helpful and civilised board which makes me feel that about the share!

DK over the years I have found Gary Wagner better than most of the other pundits. Unlike so many he is not selling the stuff so up or down is all the same to him. I met him in Hawaii a couple of years ago, and he proved very right about a coming bull market. I think the market just now, unlike then, is extremely hard to call short term. We are in a long and deep correction in the long term bull but it could go deeper, absolutely no one can tell. Why I just sit and wait it out, I am not sure w have seen the bottom and don’t think Gary is either.