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Silver up 7% in sterling, that matters for our profits and shares, and back over £20

Steve, of course you too are quite right, then the even more interesting question is when all hell breaks loos and the stock market pops will being a share trump PM prices (assuming these don’t fall too or quickly reverse) ie which will turn out more important. If market PE’s halve will profits need to double to keep the same share price? Will we thus not be geared to gold and silver price, will we rise less than it. Many of us are here for the insurance in a depression but what if we are hit too? Your thoughts and TIGER. and PROF’s on this please

JTS13. Just so, then the interesting question is if gold is in a downtrend and silver an up which will convert the other or will the ratio keep falling?

Strangers so welcome here, thrilling to see the tweet recommending Hoc, fingers crossed that finally some interest in our Hoc that has been a bit of an under appreciated backwater

LEADING INDICATOR. Strange I was posting on this board just two days ago that it had gone so quiet, with virtually no one posting, and maybe that presaged a turnaround: “ These boards have gone deadly quiet, shellshocked by the Gold Price doing nothing, miners saying it is going to fall, let’s hope the lack of interest presages a turnaround,”.
Well when no one is interested any more often shows a bottom, and likewise when everyone shouts about it a top. So maybe we need to do a chart of the number of posts here v the price....tho of course everyone comes out on bad news like Ed selling. Just when it is very quiet interesting. Now as someone said we have had 9 goes through 27, 10th time lucky?

A. Shares look forward, investors have become increasingly worried where gold charts say the metal is going, esp when you overlay 2010-12 on now, suggestin a 2012-2015 multi year descent . Now we need gold to break up and then break its all time high to totally change sentiment. Good start today, led by silver, here’s hoping

Silver is up 2.5% in sterling this morning, and gold 1% which is overall 5% rise in Hoc sterling profits. With highish costs we are very geared, also with lower free float though it is now slightly bigger

Buy on the rumour, sell on the news,

The key for our profits in sterling and hence sterling share price is sterling price of gold and silver. So question is will gold rise faster than dollar falls, good for us, or not

These boards have gone deadly quiet, shellshocked by the Gold Price doing nothing, mines saying it is going to fall, let’s hope the lack of interest presages a turnaround, but how far down before that? Gosh Eva not even £2 at end of Jan and no usual New Year soar

Yes sadly I bought at over £3

Mr Trotter. Hoc Sterling profits fall roughly 4 times the price of gold in Sterling . Gold is down 0.7%, in Sterling today, silver 2.3%. We are ? rdsgold roughly. So 2.8% fall in our gold profits, 9% in our silver so just from today’s fall our profits would be down 5% so we have held up quite well.

Eva I love your optimism, hopefully you are right just with a bit of a delay. Would only take silver to go above $30 again....keep up the optimism

Also Justapose do you have any idea how much Capex is greenfield or rare earth and is not included in aisc and how much that has risen. I have asked the company. Cey have an extra $90m this year not included in aisc, knocking profit calculation. You could say it is great Hoc aisc has risen so much hitting profit because spending a lot to find new metal. Just hope it comes down again.

Thanks Juxtapose, strange the 2019 4th quarter results, when all 4 quarters were in, said “ All-in sustaining costs on track to meet guidance of $960-$1,000 per gold equivalent ounce” so I took $980, strange it jumped $65 by their final calculations, but I was rushing a reply and should have been almost all, I didn’t calculate it through as usual in effort to give a requested prediction before Friday. You are right that silver is saving the day, (the challenge of gold equivalent ounces) and it is likely to rise faster than gold, it is still disappointing that production is so down and costs so up we do not reap the benefit of higher prices as we should. Arcata would of course have been profitable now, Pallancata becoming high cost too and grades falling throughout, was v hard to hear what Bustamente was saying in the conference call about it. However good exploration news (I heard an amazing, and keeping a lid on costs would hugely help. V exciting gold and silver now and if silver keeps getting ahead we could finally become a silver miner with gold again! Thanks again for bothering to calculate through and finding their aisc had changed

As regards the price tomorrow, the results deserved a better price as there was no bad news and got it, although 2020 was better than we might have hoped with such big Covid stoppages, 2021 will be nowhere near the normal 2019 that was precovid, with our raging mines the problem: production will be nearly a quarter down from 477k gold equivalent oz in 2019 to 366k oz this year; worse is aisc soaring from $980 to $1230 an ounce. To make up for this loss of profit from reduced ounces we need an extra $200 on the price of gold; the rising aisc is as said worse and to make up for that we need another $250 so $450 in total. So more than all the gain in gold and silver since 2019 have been eaten up. With this output problem, far the best thing about the results were the tempting morsels on exploration success, some called 'amazing' in the conference call. When we get actual figures, hopeful with final results, how good will these be and will it ever get us back where we were in 2019 which would mean a much higher share price. So in answer to your question on the price tomorrow I would hope it would be 210-215 and it would be lovely if we were getting towards 220, depending how the metal keeps going. . The far bigger question is what will happen to gold and particularly silver, we as a high cost mine have profits and the share price very geared to this, far more than many others, gosh he even mentioned reopening Arcata today, though only in a couple of years.

Yes they both have higher aisc’s the miners’ profits destroyer, as a result of the lower ounces from Mine Wall Cey, and Covid and gold running out Hoc. Plus management say Cey will have an extra $90m non aisc Capex this year and next adding about $200 to the figure for Cey . However it should lower for Cey in a couple of years if the recovery and cost cutting go well to bring it back where it was, by 2024 with a following wind. Hoc depends on finding more gold that isn’t too expensive to extract, so I would expect by 2024 Cey aisc will be a fair bit lower than Hoc’s. Accounts for Hoc’s lower value imho

Yes Dark_Night wonderful after a year or more of poor news with first lower production and higher aisc, then Covid arriving and worse. lifts the worry of Edouardo. and cash positive. even gold is up above the 200 day this am, here's hope....and yes Academy, let us hope the market gets it

Phew good results!

Tibbles, I only give the figures from our board, they are of course don't know the future either, but predicted the last quarter right, all I say is what their figures mean for profitability at current gold prices and say there is a factor of 4x the % gold change to apply to that profit as gold change . You are welcome to ignore them, however some here like having an idea. all best as ever