Member Info for Sotolo

Lucky you, I am not allowed one. I am pondering whether to turn a chunk of Anglo into a house I have seen in Umbria, I have moved beyond the idea of building in the UK as feel far too old and do I want to be in UK for next fe years; the ironic thing seems to be I’m dealing with two kinds of money, the price of the house that I can knock a few percent off or maybe get into a bidding war and it goes a few percent over versus Anglo that can move 7% in a day and keeps changing what I can sensibly afford. It seems silly selling when Anglohas fallen but will seem sensible if it keeps falling but will turn into an expensive house if it shoots up. Of course, if living in the UK, it may be sensible to crystallise the huge gains even though it will cost a lot though of course could go expat till they stop that. I need to go to the pub for a pint too even if no alcohol

Not sure why you think capable of moving up preytty quickly, also ruthenium and iridium story outweighed perhaps by Palladium and Rhodium one?, FY cash still falling and the dividend remains pretty paltry and hasn't soared quite like other miners, though interim back near 2023 which is hopeful, but so much profit is used up in development which may or may not make us money demanding a very low PE, and the paltry 15% remaining for our dividend still gives us 4.5c this calendar year near half 2022 yet share price is not much down. Hopefully the final will be much more making this financial year better but a long wait for that and PGM's under pressure again. all only imho and I may be quite wrong as may my figures so check yourselves

Calendar years (ie Final in March followed by interim in June)

2026 4.5c

2025 4.5c

2024- 3.5c

23- 7c

22- 8c k

2026 4.5c

2025 4.5c

2024- 3.5c

2023- 7c

2022- 8c

And our interims in same years 2.5c (just announced) 1.5c 1.5c 3c 3c

So lets hope a whopping final but a long wait for that

What is the forward PE now

Oracle, I feel pretty much as you do about the future trajectory of gold and of hoc, the difference I have only sold a few and taken only a small position in SPOG, Hoc remains my major holding, it depends of course or nothing goes wrong with accident prone hoc, and what happens to gold later in the year after the summer doldrums which also depends on what happens to real interest rates in the coming inflation. If we are both right about a repeat of 19 73 then after the initial fall gold fall for liquidity, it really soared through the rest of the 1970s stagflation, but of course it didn’t set off after such a meteoric rise we have seen. What will be encouraging is if it consolidates in this area over the summer and doesn’t fall below the 200 day as it didn’t when it tried last month.

Oracle, lovely to see you posting but where has everyone gone, this board used to be so busy? I sold a third of my Aclara last Oct at 420 when Hoc was about £3 and was wondering whether to do the same again as Aclara rises and Hoc falls. Where do you see Hoc going, falling then rising. In the 1973 oil shock as real rates soared gold fell then rose, miners often tumble when market breaks as it probably will as investors seek liquidity, but then takes off? Good to see posts here

Oracle, lovely to see you posting but where has everyone gone, this board used to be so busy? I sold a third of my Aclara last Oct at 420 when Hoc was about £3 and was wondering whether to do the same again as Aclara rises and Hoc falls. Where do you see Hoc going, falling then rising. In the 1973 oil shock as real rates soared gold fell then rose, miners often tumble when market breaks as it probably will as investors seek liquidity, but then takes off? Good to see posts here

Repression yes the $200 moving average is a key level, the big question is whether it will hold as if not gold could tumble a lot further. Hopefully it will take a few goes to pierce and within that time the Middle Eastern outlook will improve and the expectation of higher real interest rates and tumbling bod prices will weaken so turning it to a bottom but currently we just dont know

Jammins I know just where it is going, either up or down, to be serious gold is a fantastically fickle and misleading mistress, often I think it takes the economic, or worry arguments and uses them to justify where it wants to go but at a stab:

After the 1973 oil shock there was a huge 7 year bull market with one big correction

Interest rates rose (the worry now)

But inflation rose faster so real rates fell

This time we start from the end of a big gold bull unlike 1973 and it looks like interest rates may continue higher than inflation so real interest will remian positive, long bonds think so, though we will have the same stagflation.

So was the mid $5000’s a double top just now

Or Is this just the big correction with a pull back around a third of the big three year rise we have seen

Ah I know, gold will either go down or up or maybe both one after the other in either order…

Whatever so far Hoc has held up remarkably well considering profits halved if take fall and increased price I expect of oil, ….

Gosh it is so difficult to work out where gold is going next

Flight to safety dollar up, so gold down or dollar rise gives way to gold rise

Interest rate expectation rising, so gold down

Inflation expectation rising gold up

Real interest rising gold down

Parallel with 1970's gold up

But in 1970's inflation rose faster than interest rates and real rates fell, opposite now so gold down

Added in that miners will need gold a few hundred dollars higher for same profit due to rising oil so need a hunky gold p[rice rise

So the biggest question of all did we see a double top in gold or are we in the foothills given that we are starting with much higher debt levels and lower rates than 1970's?

Thoughts?

Gnome. In the link he appears to be talking about oil etc but didn’t hear the bit about gold?

Oil is not 100% of costs but nearer a quarter though proportion rises with the price

Add to which gold price is not looking good in the far east

Fresnillo is much more of a silver play. On another note assuming oil made up about 25% of aisc and aisc is $2200 then a doubling of oil price increases aisc by $550 so gold would need to rise to around $6000 for us to stay still or another way a doubling oils price very roughly means profits and share price around 16% ball park. Hopefully we have already pre-empted a bit of that with the fall. And on the final note hopefully the figures this week should be the last upsetting omes but combined with rising oil could hit us further.

Results may not be stellar this time as EDV as we had a year of Mara Rosa problems and large hedges. It is forward guidance that is the key.

Academy nor for rising that full thirteen fold, so just some hefty profit taking and the usual worry before results. Ho child had gone a little far in the euphoria and pull back is healthy

Centamin was 90p exactly 2 years ago, now the anglo are £.6.55 plus if reinvested the 10% cash that makes it £7.20 which is an exactly 8 fold rise, my £400k has become £3.2m plus some hefty dividends £2.80 this year per share which is huge, who would have dreamt it...

This has been a very volatile investment that I have held for over 20 years first buying at near £3 but adding (I eventually owned over 1% and used to go to the Salazar AGM’s in the city). so even showing a tiny profit. It has been a particularly hard investment as it is often being difficult to read the account, particularly when was Uruguay minerals? It looked very profitable but was actually losing money for the cost had soared much more than expected. Therefore, I have always appreciated all opinions on this board, particularly those who see why the price should fall as well as those who think it will rise because they write so, so Sringred and others both bulls and bears, , optimists and realists thanks for your informed opinions. The price in the Market is the amalgamation of what people are prepared to buy for and sell for, some like me were a bit stupid paying near £3 and could’ve done with some of Seingred’s reality.

Seingred holders of Cey who held on to the Anglo shares with which they were paid have seen a 5 fold increase, not bad as a decent new management has done wonders, I for one as a holder for over 20 years would be thrilled at a takeover but not very likely imho

I think we broke $3000 on Karo. Imagine what it’s gold might be worth to a streamer…

Mike, I am talking about % profit, not % mined, based on slightly old figures but should still be ballpark. Excuse formatting but of excel I copied and have filled in and for Karo every week for years

metal percentage mined price $ profit $ profit %

rhodium 8.9 10325 919 28%

platinum 52.6 2781 1463 44%

palladium 15.7 2015 316 10%

ir 5.7 6300 359 11%

ru 16.7 1425 238 7%

gold 0.4 4900 20 1%

100 " " 3315

Basket $3315 and Karo almost 3000