RE: Gold gnome5 May 2025 09:08
Pipedream, imho miners depend on three things, price of
a.gold,
b.quality of company and management, and
c.luck, though a lot of c. Is dependent on a. And b..
a. The gold price either topped or is taking a very necessary breather after a meteoric rise fore going further. I marginally favour the latter as we didn’t really hit exhuberance in May, China etc are still buyers, there are still the vast deficits the world over, we have unpredictable Trump plus we are at the nasty end of this 100 year cycle.
b. Miners are also very dependent on management, Anglo seems to have a good one and clever of them to buy Centamin which should improve the next figures. Again Anglo to my mind is having a well earned pull back after an over fast rise. Over at Hoc where I post a fair bit, I have been in for a long time for sentimental reason as Hochschilds are cousins if distant, the management are rather more iffy, often the quarterly reports show a problem here or there, it is like British rail with rain on the tracks, the latest figures affected by poor weather at Mara Rosa and their cash actually declining
C. Luck: so far Anglo haven’t had a mishap since we joined. Hochschild for instance are heavily in Peru that was disastrous for the share price and mining following the election of left wing Castillo in 2021 (the family sold a chunk beforehand) improved dramatically when he was ousted - good luck for miner if not population - . Then Hoc, partly perforce to make sure didn’t enter losses, put large hedges on so a third of output this year is sold at little more than $2.. More bad luck the political situation is becoming increasingly iffier.
So in answer to your question I am a holder of Anglo on balance liking a. b. And c. And not liking to time the market which research shows is not as good as holding a good company which I think this is cf Warren Buffet. Finally as we know economic forecasting is notoriously difficult which is why good management is so vital. Pipedreamer thanks for your insights and tolerance, people on these boards can get very nasty as when I kept posting how bad the Hoc situation was and particularly running out of gold and silver too, some were very rude - it fell 6 fold so miners are not for widows and orphans.