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Sorry visitor the figures I was looking at had Chromium 99%Min China Spot fall $500 on 1st June again yesterday, smallish falls but reversing the uptrend. Also with Rh the main constituent of our PGM basket down 40% since start of March I expect our forward PE might be rather higher than you suggest. Still of course good value which is why I hold but less room to take account of the coming economic slowdown imho. Sensible Tiger pointer this out a month ago and had exited at considerably higher prices expecting these falls and sadly more. - they. Seem daily at the moment. I continue to say I am surprised THS has held up better than the market so far if now it os beginning to catch up.

Well less than 2hrs trading after posting it is amazing THS holding up on Fri pM it is sadly down again, the market was quicker than usual to cotton on, of course still overvalues at current and falling PGM and chrome prices but market is I hope looking beyond the recession, rather than working in a old world of PGM prices, and car and stainless steel etc sales, to when vehicle sales etc start picking up rather than falling but that could be a while!

Thanks Deepjoy, heading off to Crete next week, first flights in 2 years airlines willing, planning to reinvest £18k divi back in Cey when it arrives, as said I think it is not as bad as many think and should begin to rise - tho not sure why that thought merits my holiday but thank you!

As Keynes said, in the long run we are all dead, and in the long run Andrew Maguire has to be right, or at least there has to be a universe in which he is, for say anything often enough and it has to once be true, so one day he will be right and gold will soar, tho so far over the last few thousand years it has broadly tracked inflation as, with its advance rise over the last 5 years in the world of super low interest rates, it continues to. If inflation catches up with the rise in gold, which seems likely soon, we should see a gold rise, if not of the sort the salesman MaGuire tries to suck us in with. Have a jolly weekend and a final thought, for many years many here thought Cey brilliant, now many write it is awful, well imho it is neither as good as you thought when you panned me for saying the price should fall, nor as bad as you think now, so just as many write it is an awful share I do believe that it shall begin to rise….I would buy more, and will when I get the whopping divi

Yes indeed Bhargav, invested here over 10 years (like me) and stock will have fallen 6 fold, invested over 20 years (like me) and stock will have fallen 25 fold, imagine the same money invested in houses. So I am about 50 times+ worse off from being invested in OMI, I stick here having written the million shares off, but I wonder whether the next 20 years will see another 25x fall?

Slater, I think maybe you miss the key point that Tornadotony points out: hoc isn’t a long term miner like Barrick or Centamin, with long life gold mines, but in essence an exploration company that is very risky. It’s Peruvian mines are running out and it seeks replacements mostly from others’ cast offs like Snip. This is a very difficult game, but IF perchance they get it right and have great luck the company would of course become a lot more valuable. As it is, it is a tired very high cost miner which in these inflationary times is somewhat unfortunate if still worth a punt,

Well I spoke a little soon as it has taken a 5% lurch but still hasn’t nearly caught up and a way to go but as said an hour ago of course chromium is helping but that is down a bit too, most encouraging that the market is looking beyond the coming slump viz ths even with this 5% off, or less encouraging just hasn’t caught up yet and this 5% is just the first of quite a few I expect as we probably head back towards a hundred if PGM’s continue to fall and chrome follows with a recession

Amazing how well THS is holding up in light of much reduced basket that continues to fall, of course chromium is helping but that is down a bit too, most encouraging that the market is looking beyond the coming slump viz ths or less encouraging just hasn’t caught up yet?

Leeds with ii dividend is usually paid the same day, with Barclay’s Smartinvestor can wait weeks and make dozens of phone calls chasing - hence I am moving from them!

Slater I agree with all you say apart from I believe the charts show that gold does reflect inflation, just not in the short term but over the longer term. So the question is how much of gold’s rise from 2016 outpacing inflation, means quite a bit of inflation is already in the price, and how much may come in the next few years. Of course the challenge with miners is unlike the metal their costs go up with inflation so over the long term they tend not to make money unless they find more gold, which is a challenging and increasingly expensive process, pushing costs up further, and not to be relied on as Hichschild shows. Billie I think in the short term goals moves not with the rate on Treasuries, but the difference between the 10 year inflation adjusted Treasuries and the interest rate, i.e. whether real interest rates are negative or positive. The impedimental gold recently has been these real rates moving from negative to positive Imho

Dark PM’s are stuck for lack of buyers over sellers as many big hedge funds expect inflation to begin to reverse later in the year just as interest rates are rising hitting gold so they are selling in advance imho

Hedged great sums but the basket price is I reckon 10% below what you say knocking your profit figures by maybe 20% and falling which, if it continues through this year as recession bites and people get poorer, will knock them further

Yes Tornado but in Jan 2016 the pound was worth 20% more, making dollar gold worth 20% more to UK shareholders, aisc costs have risen and is 50% more and we have 50% to take off now for profit share so on that basis share price should be quite a bit lower, as all that considerably more than obviates the gold dollar price rise since Jan 2016, but luckily for us the share price is giving us the benefit of the doubt and has priced in better times coming

Thanks Visitor, but why then is headline eps down almost a third, and ebitda quite a bit too? Or is that because rising chrome and falling PGM’s hadn’t quite worked their way into these backward looking figures?

Sorry top my stupid maths! However “ The headline earnings figure can be further used to arrive at alternative metrics like headline earnings per share and improve the information content of the P/E ratio. ” using more useful hence PE would be 6

Quite so oufc, as said I too stay in as they invest in sensible and enhancing projects and will grow, with experienced and visionary management with skin in the game; we can’t do anything about the vagaries of world economy, hence auto demand hence PGM price, also the PGM production rise is pretty impressive and chrome exciting. Do yo think at these prices chrome is now a third of the profit?

Don’t Eps of 25p gives PE of 6 not 3 at share price of 150, also if based on fairer headline earning per share, which halves them, would be 12? Nice to see the payout 19% when has often been 17% and only 15% aimed for, just a shame profits are so down, presumably if PGM’s stay here second half will be worse as more inflation and won’t benefit from the better PGM priced first quarter. However I expect PGM’s will continue to fall a bit further in expectation of recessions worldwide so lower auto demand, however looking longer term I love THS and stay in it as they reinvest in sensible projects, also car demand through Asia and Africa should grow especially if/when recession ends and there will be an awful lot of vehicles round the world to replace with few newer ones recently sold so many getting long in the tooth.

Thanks for posting Ilja. So if I read it all right, the interim dividend is down 25% from 4c to 3c as Ebitda falls 10% with Headline earning per share down 29% despite a 20% rise in PGM mined - mostly presumable from heavily increased costs but also reduced PGM price. It is going to be a tough year for miners unless prices rise substantially due to increased costs. I wonder how the market will react to such a hefty dividend drop……or I worry

Well Dark it isn’t doing gold any good, as predicted a couple of weeks ago it was about to have a dead cat bounce, well that has happened but also as predicted then the bounce likely to be shorlived, I wonder if it is over yet, scary interview on Kitco yesterday about how much small/mid gold miners like us share price will fall as profits are squeezed away by rapidly rising costs, esp from fuel as well as labour, unless gold rises a lot, and so far with rising rates it is sadly falling to where many will be losing money. Hoc was already an extremely high cost producer, and must be closing the gap with a falling gold price as costs soar further. So let’s just hope the market is wrong and gold at some point turns, and turns big!

We already had the headline figures last week if not the detail, hence the rise in proce