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Gold moves inversely to real interest rates. So inflation raises gold unless interest rise faster which is just what has been happening. Bonds (measured by 10 year TIPS) are now yielding over a real 2%, the highest since the 2009 burst and historically very high. Inflation adjusted gold is near the low of 1970, back where it was at the start of the century and half what it was in 2012. Look at the real prices not nominal
Mike my basket using JM figures is still falling, yesterday $1370 for Tharisa mine and $1285 Karo . However you are right that the Tharisa figure is now lower than JM, $1258 for Tharisa mine and $1226 Karo, but they is because have $800 less for rhodium per oz and $65 less for Palladium, which may be more realistic especially given. spreads. I can understand why they have stopped shouting about it on twitter. Quite agree chromium is great, just wonder if there could be a temporary cut in Chinese use with the building crash, but I think it will be quite a while till hydrogen economy replaces cat use, and rh price may still stay low, luckily Karo is now only a little over 10% dependent on rhodium profit with 75% from platinum and palladium and near 15% for gold
Indeed Mike, but the question is what is our future PE; if/as Karo starts producing how much could its losses increase the PE, none of us know. However I am just placing an order for a Fisker Ocean a BEV this morning. I understand much of the world doesn’t have that option but a marginal difference in demand can affect the PGM prices significantly as we see! Of course a lot of our future PE depends on chromium staying up at current levels or even rising further but if the Chinese pull back accelerates will it? So with this company future PE is a very guessed metric. I prefer to go for the great management and just wish they hadn’t done Karo just now in which case the share price would have been be a lot higher imho. SLP share price now back above unloved THS
In essence that is because when gold falls 10% CEY profits fall 30%, and when gold rises, CEY profits rise three times as fast, the multiplier affect, which is why many of us like miners. The floor in this is that costs keep rising so over the longer term the downward multiplier is greater and the upward multiplier is less
Quite agree with Steve. What will turn our share price round is higher profits. For considerably higher profits, we need higher gold prices in real terms. Inflation has been near 20% over the last couple of years so that is near $400 that the gold price has to be higher to be the same in real terms! Ounces help, cost cutting helps but the big thing is the difference between costs and selling price, costs can be reduced a little but tough with high inflation and in real terms the management has started successfully reducing them, but the big motor has to be higher real gold prices. If or when who know, a pure gamble especially in the shorter term. We all remain full of hope….so yes add inflation to those comparisons
Tibbs and Tornado, the cey v hoc share price does reflect their relative performance.. Historically Hoc share price has been considerably higher than Cey, but over the last three years crashed below on even worse news than the Cey mine wall - a hard left government and potential withdrawal of their mining licence. This last year it has only recovered a bit for the shares to level peg. On capitalisation Cey is now worth nearly 2 ½ times Hoc. Before their respective tumbles Hoc was only ⅓rd less than Cey. It plunged to 2/3rds less, on political problems, so yes but all it has done in the last year is make a bit of a recovery as these have been solved but comparatively has done far worse than Cey over the last few years. Over 5 years Hoc is down 40% while Cey is slightly up. Last year’s performance figures are thus a bit of an aberration, as just as said making up a small bit of lost ground. Going forward, Hoc’s main mine Inmaculada has lower costs than Sukari and makes good profits, especially now it has permission again. Their still low valuation now is because Pallancata mine is closing and their new Mara Rosa mine , that comes on stream next year, is costing hundreds of millions to develop. They have had to borrow at the worst of times. Cey is the better company hence the far higher valuation, however imho Hoc is the better bet over the next two years as it should get back to near Cey production levels at lower cost, once Mara Rosa is on stream, but valued at a third of the price. I bought more when the permit news came through (All numbers approx)
Maybe a rise into them but they are pretty dire with low production, very high costs and sizeable losses. Pallancata is closing in the next 3 months which will help the losses and not much further reduc3 production as nearly spent. However jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. When Mara Rosa comes on stream it will help but then there is hefty investment in the new pallancata and we will already have maybe $200m debt or near half cap especially if price falls much on these sad results. Jam tomorrow is a little further off.
Steve, not pointless, if figures are more or less expected the market positions itself in expectation then takes profits when they come out which is why the movement after the figures come out is so often counter intuitive, have a lovely weekend
Thanks Ilja. Also could you tell me which of the chrome prices is most important to you, and by roughly how much, presumably the Turkish one is least
Should have read 7 share trades, not traded, dratted auto correct, but even if a bit more as you say, amazingly thin at just 33000 shares. An LSE PM miner like Centamin with a similar ball park share price and profit, albeit 4 times higher PE, can trade around a million shares a day, Tharisa currently lies in a creek barely visited and waiting, also as shown by th paucity of posts here and even fewer over on ADVFN. Hopefully as the Chromium profits become more apparent in the finals in November the share will become a bit more noticed and even loved, and then when Karo comes on stream if PGM’s recover. But somehow Ilya it would be helpful if you could alert and excite Mrs Market to your attractions, as she seems utterly uninterested just now
Visitor, I just opened this to ask the same question. Last Monday Tharisa didn’t seem to tweet the weekly PGM basket and chromium prices as usual, and this week can’t even find a tharisa or tharisa_sa Twitter/X account at all??
This share is extraordinarily thin, can there really only have been 7 shares traded in London yesterday and all under £10,000?
Spoonington, how much do you invest here because you think profitability will rise again at this gold price, and how much in the hope or expectation that it is fairly or underpriced at this gold price, ao a play on gold rising?
Spoonington, I think what you write is spot on in every respect including about Cowichan, your knowledge and clear explanations are much appreciated. I quite agree about the managements. Also I used to bang on about rising AISC when others were obsessed by ounces. However it is now actually falling in real terms and as you say is more like others as they have risen, so no longer the problem. It is a shame there is so much less for dividends that under Pardy with such high capex and less of remaining profit paid out. Plus the weird $6m just in this half on the weird $1900 hedge, another sizeable chunk of dividend gone. He was not as bad as some make out and Horgan not as good. Our dividend just coming is sadly lower
I think the hedges cost $6m for 120k oz at $1900. If so that is $50 an ounce, a huge amount to pay for a hedge for just these 6monthns as ends by December just to have flexibility, for a company with lots of cash? There is always the possibility Cowichan is right just as Kees was all those years ago. Cowichan how does Emma owe Cley money, and can they ever get it back by reducing royalty payments? Maybe you could get one of the analysts to ask the question at the next figures presentation just to see. If you are right?