Member Info for Sotolo

Barnyrublle, my twopence worth: If they make their expected 90,000 gold equivalent oz at aisc of $1275, and if Capex adds another $200, then on my fag packet that is about $400 an oz profit or $36,000 less a chunk of tax or £15m which isn't bad for the last quarter. However I expect the oz may be worse as San Jose has barely got going and Inmaculada has tough safety measures. For me it all depends
a. on whether we finally get the exploration update that we were promised before the end of last year, why the delay?
b. we badly need to see there were no bad upcoming figures that led Mr Hochschild to sell at end Nov, this has been hanging heavily on the share price as owners have a habit fo selling near the top as they know a lot.
Eva predicted £3 share price by end of Jan, wit his extra knowledge Mr H decided to sell for £2 in late Nov presumably thinking he would get less than that hanging on till the end of Jan. Two views, I hope Eva proves right but may be likely that Mr H was prescient, or just knew a lot more. Investing was never fair.

Thanks Mr Bond, I am not a trader, I only sell a small percentage of my core holding when it seems very obvious , to make myself feel better as they tumble, ie after the terrible wall news, or buy some back when they seem to have fallen too much. I have no idea what this share price will drop to now, but it seems fairly resilient and the value seems around fair assuming the Capex and aisc fall back in 2024 as predicted, and we return to proper profit. In the meantime, with our mountain of cash and a near halved share price, the 6% dividend should remain affordable; it will only cost the company half as much. tho only be half as much to us too. So at the moment I am neither a seller nor a buyer, the price mainly depends on which way gold goes, I think short term down with interest rate rise, mid term up with inflation and real interest rate fall, but none of us really has a clue just now. Which brings us to the 4th quarter results on Tuesday, I am hoping for them to be slightly better than management suggested, but that could still lead to selling by those who are unprepared for falling profits despite being told, or on the other hand the market could be relieved if not worse than predicted. It may also depend on any more detail for the next couple of years, on the new mining concessions and on W Africa. Sadly however I have had to become a long term holder waiting patiently for a recovery that may not come for a couple of years, gold dependent, as with the share nearly halved my new house building project is very depressingly sadly off for a while. I remain locked in above our garage with planning to replace a large burned down house, growing older watching Centamin too closely, Hoc is currently worse. What times and how fickle a mistress gold and miners can be.

MarkBell,I have about the same but that is with no non aisc Capex taken off. They have not given a figure that I can see for this year, but for the next 2 or 3 years they are spending an extra $90m (!!) on Capex not included in aisc, which with this aisc also being higher will almost wipe out profits next year. The question for me is how much of your figure for profits this year will be cut, if it were anywhere near next year’s $90m, it would mor than halve the figure you expect tho I don’t think it will be that bad this year, but may be worse than many think. Then the key to the share price becomes prospects for next year, do they still forecast a fall of around three quarters in profits next year. Profits then improves little by little in 2022 and 2023, then if everything is equal profits may recover towards where they were last year in 2024 which is a long time to wait to not even get back where we were, unless we are saved by gold, but that doesn’t look likely in the immediate future. However I remain a holder for the fabulous dividend, no debt, prospects of more exploration winning ounces back, tho at a cost, and gold eventually rising. You did ask!

Yes that too, and it is mid summer. Imagine in 3 months

You are forgetting non aisc Capex, they never seem to break out how much this is (or I have asked here but never found it) but likely to be higher and sadly reduce your numbers

Report next Tuesday Jan 19th shortly after 7am. The key thing to watch is not ounces mined but profitability of those ounces, ie how much costs have soared, profit is likely to be very low which some don’t fully expect. However the share price is almost half August, and the key is how next year looks. Plus when we eventually get news on new concessions and w Africa

Mr Tibbles, usually I champion sticking to matters that will affect Centamin and the gold price on this board. However thank you for bringing this distressing news to our attention, I had happily missed it. This is very sad news as it is a canary signalling very bad environmental news, maybe glyphosphates next, then a relaxation of other dangerous adulterants in food and home. Your post says sign a petition now and share widely, do you have a link for this? Ultimately the ramifications will be economic if we can no longer pollinate crops, as is becoming challenging in California already.

Gnome and Tibbs, Modern Monetary Theory of which Stephanie Keaton is a proponent suggests that this time it is different, and vast government debt is fine if you can keep printing your money. However read Ray Dalio’s book, that Gnome recently suggested, about how government debt leads to the fall of currencies over thousands of years, and many others on how debt dooms. Keynesianism can be great but this is Keynes over the top imho and MMT is likely to lead to rising inflation and gold which is good for us. This is the FT on Stepahie’s book;
“What MMT appears to offer that conventional policymaking does not is the job guarantee. On one level this is attractive — central banks consistently overestimate how low unemployment rates can fall before inflation reappears. The guarantee would remove this discretion and use the composition of employment, not its level, to control inflation. Yet there is no certainty that it would create the “good jobs” Kelton imagines. It may end up looking more similar to workfare programmes. In a time of stagflation, with inflation and unemployment rising, it may become as unpleasant a tool for trying to force down private sector wage growth as conventional monetary policy.

The descriptive part of MMT is more appealing: that monetary sovereigns really are currency issuers not users. That insight, however, is neither new nor particularly helpful as we work out how best to balance growth, inflation and fiscal sustainability on the other side of coronavirus.

Please respect the views of others. See famed investor Jeremy Grantham, who has called many falls so right, in this week’s Money Week saying one of the signs of the top of a market is it has emotion, in the form of “hostility towards bears,” so sadly hostility to those who think gold OR OMI may fall would seem to presage just that, we may all hope Tymers is wrong but the ruder we are the more likely we are witnessing him becoming right. The great thing about these boards is opposing views from which help us all to make up our own minds, so thanks EVERYONE on this board, and PLEASE keep both views on the future coming!

I was reading today that Jeremy Grantham, who has a good record of calling market tops, is saying the soaring current market “has a ‘this-time-is- different’ explanation: the bulls say that with money printing a go-go everywhere and interest rates stuck at zero, it is entirely rational to assume valuations to infinity....it has emotion, in the form of “hostility towards bears,” something Grantham has noticed just before all great bulls come to an end. So maybe the antagonism to anyone here who thinks gold may fall suggests that it will, and when people are more open to other points of view will be a leading indicator of a rise. For now we are fighting rising interest rates, soaring stock market and Bitcoin, which are proving too much for gold. However many of us expect that inflation will kick in leading to falling real interest rates and helping us. The million dollar question remains whether, in the coming 2021 stock market crash that Grantham seems pretty sure of, gold will tumble too as there is a rush to raise liquidity or as Gnome’s great suggestion of Ray Dalio says, gold will be the only place to be. A bumpy road for us...

Tiger the worry is that if this is their midsummer, if this is as good as it gets, it may be pretty dire in 6 months time
Dragon, you are right that real interest rates are the key, they remain hovering around -1%, however the nominal 10yr US treasury rate has been rising and whizzed up again to over 1%,
TARPS ten year inflation linked have risen a bit too, over 2% but slower. The big question is which will rise faster, today we were hit by the former zooming up, however most of us here think it is the latter, inflation that will work for us.
On another note Hoc profits will be savaged by Covid for their last quarter. McEwan, the joint owner of San Jose with us, just reported. According to the company, in Q4 2020, their attributable production from San José was 531,500 silver ounces and 8,700 gold ounces, 
Hoc’s from their half of this mine, in the 4th quarter last year, was 1759000 and 28,460 sophistry time will be a quarter of the ounces and higher costs, profit down maybe 80% there despite higher PM prices. Peru may be recovering a little better, but Covid is dragging hard on the share price and maybe what made Ed sell, along with his other companies being stretched by Covid
So for us will gold rise faster than Hoc’s production is hit

Dark Knight
We know quarter 4 is going to be bad, the company suggest 85000oz at nearly $1300 aisc plus hefty Capex, leaving little profit, compared to last fourth quarter with 150000oz at $950aisc, so the market knows profits from this quarter 4 will be down maybe 5 fold on last year. This should be in the price which should look forward to 2021. However last quarter (3rd) when the results were down just as predicted, our share price was unfairly whopped. Let’s hope PM prices ride to the rescue and even better we get some good, rather than bad, news from all the Capex we have poured into exploration. So waiting for the day but could go either way...we also need to find there was no bad news that prompted Ed to sell.

Brilliant to see gold rising, is this the start of a new year rally like 2016. Will our share price finally go into profit, a year ago it was 127p, other golds are up between 20% and 100%+, but then increased profits on rising metals rather than near extinguished them.
Sadly your calculation doesn’t seem quite right? The Low in sterling that counts for sterling profits and our sterling share price was £1332. We ar now £70 higher, or 5% higher. The extra £70 x 415k Oz less 5% royalty less 50% profit share is an extra £13m. Not 50? Still if fair price we should be up 5% this am

It seemed unfair when Edouardo sold his shares to insiders at 200p, 15% off, annoying some of us for being left out on this. However many of us here had the last laugh topping up in the 180’s and 90’s.
Viz my last post are we finally starting the new year lift off? Hoc was 175 exactly a year ago, so already nearly 20% up on a year for long term holders. It is summer in S America so Covid disruption should be better till April, now for some good exploration news, if only......

Thank you Gnome, I look forward to reading it, I have really enjoyed your recommendation of ‘the changing world order’, along similar lines, which suggests gold should be lifting off. So far gold has jus started, though a shame that our mine’s problems obviated the rise in the metal again. On Dec30 2019 we ended at 123.35, now a year later we are 123.75, we have kept our money, while the ftse250 has lost nearly 20%, plus we have continued to get a dividend while so many have been cut, which is great considering how badly our mine has done, more than obviating the gold price rise to heavily reduce profits in a golden year, It has been a huge rollercoaster but it is why I stick with Cey (and Hoc up 18%]. With PM’s one never knows, the most confounding and so interesting market to play, will we have the usual Jan lift off or will the headwinds of rising alternatives remain too strong for a while, and what of winning and finding new resource, clawing back to producing just 10% less ounces and especially reducing costs from the very high 2021 in the following years. I shall be here as it is so exciting if scary, if only our company would finally begin communicating better, as though we owned it, starting with Dasult's hope of strong and positive next report. Happy New Year to all my friends here, even the *****y, may Cey fly and help our dreams which it is so good at inspiring if so far not quite fulfilling, may I be able to build (not a fiction, why should I make it up), may this be the year that we respect each others opinions about the future direction of Centamin and what will influence it, it is this variance that is so provoking useful and informative. Above all may this be the year we finally don our golden flip flops that seemed so tantalisingly on the horizon in Aug before our share price halved again, best wishes to all, Sotolo

Our share price in sterling was 176p at the start of 2020, so we have made nearly 20%, while the ftse 250 of which we are a part is down nearly 20%, it has been a huge rollercoaster but is why I stick with Hoc, let us hope 2021 is even better and that Eva’s prediction of 300 by this month’s end comes true. With PM’s one never knows, the most confounding and so interesting market to play, will we have the usual Jan lift off or will the headwinds of rising alternatives remain too strong for a while, and what of finding new resource that we so desperately need and why we started 2020 low, happy New Year all, Sotolo

Dark Knight, look at the POG in pounds which is what affects our £ denominated shares, ie in dollars our shrares would be higher as pound has risen over 10%
As regards takeover why if it was on the cards would Ed not have sold the quarter of his holding that he sold to whoever wanted to buy it at a higher price? Wouldn’t he have sounded out if anyone was out there?
Best of brilliant luck to all in 2021 and let’s hope 4th quarter figures not so bad, with still stuttering mines we get whammed again and discover why Ed sold. Most important figures for us in Jan and on exploration news.

I am only pointing out wrong figure posted, I am no Jeremiah just like correct facts, rather than unbridled optimism, which do not stop the investment case, in fact strengthen it; . I have explained why I stick with Cey before and why the current price is about fair but could rise

A. It pays almost all its profits as a divi rather than management going on an aggrandising spending spree at shareholders’ expense
B. Long mine life and could be more around
C. Once it gets through next couple of years if all is equal then we should see halcyon days, especially if finds more gold
D. In the meantime I think historically this kind of money printing at the end of the debt cycle leads to inflation, currency debasement and a run to gold. Cey is a rare thing a decent size gold miner quoted on the LSE

So I happily and hopefully hold, loving getting £50k a year, half of it tax free in ISAs and Sipp, where else! Happy New Year to all

I don’t recall Centamin ever being 200p before this Aug? However it got to 190p in April 2017 when the gold price rose to £1025. Gold is now £1385. However costs inc Capex are £350 higher than 2017 and output is actually lower so the mine is making a bit less profit, and now we only get half the profit as we have the full 50% profit share, so our share price has held up well. It is looking out a year or two hoping that production recovers, costs fall back and gold rises, but it has to be quite a lot to make up for the profit share. I remain a holder with the whopping 6% divi. But comparing now and then is apples and pears

Thanks Juxtapose. Are you or anyone else able to dig out the figures on how much of the upcoming Capex is included in the Aisc and how much has to be taken off the profit worked out on the back of a matchbox by ounces x price sold-aisc less tax.