Member Info for Sotolo

Thank you Siko, it is very sad, but after a sleepless night I have been touched. I shall try not to rise to any of it, thread ended (I hope).

Thank you Prof. I have been entirely consistent over many years on both this board and Hoc. My holding is 598527 as of today and if you come to Suffolk or Tiger, Dasul, Siko, Uncertain, Cowichan, Razor, Tornado, Autonomy DJ, Supercharger, Hedgehog, Razor, and if he can make it Market22 who I miss the many wonderful and decent names go on, I will very happily show any all my dealing notes, see my flat above the garage and builder price, (why would I make this up??), as though this or having to explain any of my trades as I make them should be necessary to avoid the Trolls, but sadly as 90 years ago we live in a time when truth is increasingly undermined by fake news.
This board is a microcosm of modern Britain, I talk about it lots. So many decent courteous and helpful people remain but sadly bit by bit more and more become filled with vitriol, unless one stands up, look at so many of the US electorate, beguiled by Bannon, Cummins and Trump pushing the idea of fake news, not based on fact, ever further and falsely tarnishing people. This fo rme is the biggest casualty and danger now and another reason I like gold and Centamin. Et tu Tibbles.

Yes and most of the gold companies Chartists and pundits on kitco predict a continuing and accelerating fall. None of us knows which way gold will go, the fall brigade depend on the charts, the trend down is well established and unless the price gets quite a bit higher starting with 1845 it isn’t broken. Plus equities are a great bet just now, till they aren’t so people sell gold to buy them. The optimists mostly base their prediction on equities falling, but have all summer, and fundamentals, rising inflation and so falling real interest rates, but over the past month or two real rates have been rising as the economic recovery expectations heralds rising nominal rates says the market. Whoever is right, as on Brexit and Covid, just wish they would respect the other side and not call them shorters or longers or liars. My guess is that Edouardo falls into the fall brigade, hence selling, also that he see no sign of a possible takeover as he would have got 50% more from that, or doesn’t want one as wants to keep a third or more. All IMH&respecfulO. We shall see who is right in three months. Hope it is the optimists but fear it is the fall brigade. Please be nice to each other in these torrid and disrespectful times

Eva as usual I love your optimism as much as you hate my realism, let’s hope you are right and it is back over yesterday’s 240 in a week.
The challenge is the large liquid mines to choose from on LSE are Hoc Fres and Cey.
And Tiger as always said I love opposing views if civil, as you always are, I make Cey PE next year 23, falling to 15 in 2022 and 14 in 2023 and then getting lower, so price looks about fair, esp with so much money in bank and able to go on paying us covered 6% divi from 2022, and plenty to cover it many times over next year. If cey gets good new concession or Africa news should help as long doesn’t eat up Capex. Here desperately awaiting exploration news on which future depends. I wish Hoc could cut spending as Cey is, but we need massive exploration to replace our expensive dying ounces, and new finds keep getting more expensive to produce imho

Well Tiger for once I was the opposite of you yesterday, thinking of selling Hoc then doing so though only 4%, as said on Cey board yesterday sold £40k Hoc at 240 and bought Cey at 118, now just reversed and sold the Cey at 121 and bought back hoc at 198. I know rights are different but I nearly bought BA when they tumbled to the rights price and kicked myself when I didn’t as they soon recovered and more. Problem is I am addicted to goldies, so never want to buy anything else, so wild, I don’t usually trade but Cey at 200 seemed too high, and hoc yesterday. Plus Cey seems too attractive yesterday with what I read as good news, that I was waiting for to reverse to them. Now will hoc fall a little more or recover. For me the god and silver prices are far more important than ounces or sales in the medium term

Can’t get a quote on even selling 20 this am? Eva I am not crying but posting the truth as I see it and asking relevant questions as to why now may be a good time for him. Yes it could be Peruvian politics and in my post on it last night I mentioned that. It is not crying to say gold miners have more unexpected news than many other shares. It is a racy game which is why I enjoy it, however there has been a dearth of good news lately - much lower production, much higher costs, mines closing, closing again, ore running down and lack of replacement, arcata having to close, pallancata costs through the roof, permit trouble, so hoping for some better news soon. But would love to know what Eduardo is thinking

I did not realise the RNS was from 4.37pm but assumed from before opening as usual, and I had just missed it earlier. Prof I am not so sanguine. Why now? First the family have had this stake for ages, so why now? He could have sold at well over double for an extra £400million a decade ago, or got an extra £120million in August. Why now? The placing is at 200p a share, very unfair we can’t buy at this price or maybe we can... only tiny silver lining as posted on Cey board I sold 4% of mine and returned it to Centamin yesterday. Gosh you have to be resilient with these goldies, always another whammy. I said yesterday on the good side it would make the company more open to takeover if anyone wanted it, and that the price hadn’t fallen after the announcement. Well I was wrong on the latter as announced after hours. Why now? Like the rest of the market it seem that this man in the know, after all these years, sees more opportunity elsewhere. Well we know his gold is running out, we know politics is dire where we mine, we know gold may very well tumble, or he is worried about all three? So Prof where will we be today? Are you all joining him and reducing your holding?

Quite so Autonomy, please keep your views coming as so useful to have honest differing opinions rather than police out those who say ounces mined or gold might go down; as sadly they both now have. The idea you can move the price of fold would be most impressive if true. F course I hope you are wrong but fear you are not. Time will tell

Gosh, interesting news. When Josef at Centamin unloaded a hunk of his shares he chose a great time before a long long fall. Does Edouardo worry about gold carrying on down till the company becomes unprofitable? After all he could have chosen August when the shares were 40% higher. On the other hand this means a takeover now becomes more possible and they will be more liquid plus the market didn't seem upset today? any other views on Edouado selling a quarter of his holding!!

Yes Autonomy, most likely a temporary reprieve from tumbling gold and a couple of happier mornings not waking to it. When and where do you think the tumble might stop?

Market as I worried is looking at 2021, and as usual, even though it knows, is effecting surprise. I

Please do Submit how much of the Capex is included in the aisc going forward, in the obvious question box on the link to this morning’s presentation that I just posted , if a few of us do we might even get an answer which would help hugely in working out fair value.

Amazing Cey opens marginally down, Hoc up 1.48, great Cey buying moment as must climb later, mustn’t it, of course depending on whether v iffy gold price resumes its 3 month downward trend

Crockedskier, some Capex should be included in aisc, if for ongoing Sukari mining, so the apportionment of capital spending is the biggest question for me, next years 20% aisc of course is partly because of fewer Oz to spread it over, but also extra spending to recover

And on my fag packet we still make £100m in 21, which would be great, less any Capex not included in aisc, so share price about right or a bit under looking at 2021 but should be at least 50% more beyond, so if any sense should rise in expectation. However what about the large 9 figure Capex, how much included in aisc, anyone know or do please ask this am if u have a chance.

However I think the RNS is great. A final divi of about 3cents if my maths is right, which is half interim but still good, but best of all a brilliant aisc by 2023 and 2024 right back down. For me it is not long term ounces that matter as much as profit per ounce so 450 to 500 k but with aisc right back down is fab. Let’s hope market looks forward. I will and if didn’t have so many would certainly buy on this news even if 201021 lousy, not quite as bad as expected and beyond if held looks great. Nothing yet on new concessions that Insee

9am https://webcasting.buchanan.uk.com/broadcast/5fb2877abe1fd642a3ef21b0/5fc684550c7aa22257c26e93
Any views on the capital news?

hope so, but fly in the ointment is next year's much higher aisc, and possibly lower gold anyway for now
This eve the normally good Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz said "During big moves in either direction, there will always be a big move counter the direction of the trend. For now, we will assume the rally this morning is simply a dead-cat bounce." I used to talk a lot about those with Uncertain, on this board but sold out to buy his children houses, and who I miss. I am assuming this is a dead cat too but not brave enough to take advantage of it, and hope (wishfully) that news tomorrow outweighs it

Thanks DJ! In USA meet someone at a party, says they are a top director, makes home movies, I was brought up to say instead mess about in films. Similarly with shares not to crow about the upsides but acknowledge the (one’s own) downsides. Really appreciate your post. Maybe DJ’s need to be more out front.
And Freedom, share prices looks forward, our 2nd half revenue will be down as will both halves of 2021 unless a changed prediction tomorrow

Eva I love your optimism, it is almost contagious, I am eeyore, as is Noel a bit. Great that this is such a gentlemanly, or ladylike, board amid these ti,es of sad disrespect for each others’ views. What counts for me is not a days’ snap back but where gold is in a month. And that I worry about but don’t buy and sell as short term trading imho usually ends up paying only marketmakers