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Super, my switch of 20% of my Cey into Hoc, based on my belief the Hoc bad figures were temporary but Cey’s would last a year or more, seems to have luckily paid off, starting when Hoc was 15p more than Cey,. However the gap has now risen to 120p so I have begun buying some Cey back, as if gold rises it should too. I wonder how much more the gap between the two shares can rise. I suppose if Biden does win, and gold rises silver should soar taking the gap even wider, but then of course if he loses....

The CEO actually owns more than he did at the start of the year, he bought a large lump, maybe options, in Jan and realised a bit over half of that in Feb, but that was only about 15% of his total, he now has over 2million and is steadily building - he had only a bit over a million 18 months ago. Great to see a CEO putting his money where his company is

Actually Hoc are now primarily a gold miner with a large silver sideline and some rare earths one day...

Supercharger you are very cheering, I do hope so but silver has now broken down through its 50 day average, the 200 day ave is around $20. I wonder what will happen next weds? I was totally confounded last election, when I expected gold to soar after Trump’s unexpected victory, which it did for a few hours to $1370 from memory, before falling steadily back and taking a couple of years to recover....whatever it will be payment enough to have a rational government again, at least there....but respect everyone’s view on this

Hi Tiger and Prof, sorry not to be able to talk about Cey on that board as it seems to have been hijacked again, hopefully temporarily, by conspiracy theorists who see some plot to bring down the Cey price as though it needs that, whenever I report on management and figures one 007 stirs it, similar to what drove me and Tibbs off before. Sadly the falls one predicts on bad news happen but one is as much the cause as the reporter is of a political change. Thanks both who know me for your support. Luckily Hoc board discusses problems openly, sadly of falling gold price and falling output. My view of the two shares is changing; IF gold price holds and IF Cey can bumble along with a bit above 415k Oz at around $1240 aisc less 52.5% profit share that is still just under £100k profit which gives a PE of 14 around current prices. Remember its share price has almost halved from the Aug peak when expected profit was £230k, so getting close to fair value unless more bad news. But at least they have a lot of gold, 8m Oz measured, 2m indicated,.5m inferred in Sukari, so enough for 25 years at current extraction rate, depending whether worth it. Hoc should do similar Oz this year and have no profit share thought tax, so a lower PE, but can’t bumble along at 415k Oz unless it finds some more. They have half Centamin’s proven reserves at 4.5m Oz, though they have far more indicated, at around 8m and another 4m inferred, though seem to make it v hard to get at in accounts as all min silver equivalent, as probably look bigger. The big fly in both is £100k plus capex and how much is included in aisc, for sustaining, and how much is not included as for growth projects, which could wipe out profit, anyone any idea? Ps my figures are approx and could be quite wrong of course with my maths. But for both now it is the gold price.......

Gold shares predict the gold price and are suggesting it will break down from its current trading range

Sorry Prof, my post had its last last para cut yesterday as too long, saying that gold shares tends to be a leading indicator of the gold price and their falls suggest that gold will break down, once it leaves the comforts of the 1900’s, so maybe best to hang on before buying more, tho of course couldn’t say that on the Centamin board. All best

Sorry not to reply quicker to your post on the Cey board but I was a bit put off; it is bad enough losing money & worrying, without being accused by conspiracy theorists who decry different views suggesting interference, and they will take any steps necessary. It has driven dear Mr Tibbles off before. A bit pointless if you can only post that shares and profits will rise, especially when management say production and profit will be down

This board is much quieter, partly because there are fewer Hoc shares traded, as the family own more than half; it is more volatile, also because the market treats it as a silver miner while it is now over half gold.
Hoc have two problems which lowered their share price: First Hoc’s secular short mine lives, with another lower production forecast before Covid:
In 2019 Hoc beat forecast and mined 477k gold equivalent oz at an aisc below expectation of $965, for a profit of $450k less Tax and Capex. Cey in 2019 was almost identical 480k oz at $943. And while Cey has 52.5% profit share and royalty Hoc has high Capex to find new metal.
By early 2020, before Covid, Hoc predicted a production drop to 432k oz, so higher aisc of 1015-1035 (and Capex 115-130m) so around 20% profit hit. While Cey predicted higher ounces. So the two share prices diverged with Cey rising above Hoc.
As 2020 turned out both were unexpectedly hit, one by Covid shutdowns the other by the mine wall. Hoc’s Covid mine shutdowns are known and temporary, so I think the recent share price hit has been overdone, unlike Cey’s lost production that could last longer.
So to 2021. With PM’s at this price if Hoc production recovers, to the reduced figure they originally predicted for 2020, they make a bit under $400m less tax and capex. While Cey with 415k at a massive $1200-1275aisc make $120k after profit share and royalty. All these figures are on the back of my fag packet so may be wrong but I think Hoc should make more than Cey everything else being equal next year while being valued less
However I haven’t added the Argentine and Peru political risk which I think outweigh the Centamin court case.

So in conclusion Hoc deserved to suffer badly from its 10% lower production pre-Covid, Cey deserved to suffer more for its over 20% loss in production and hugely higher aisc. So which is better poised to make it up, Cey because they will sort it out but could be years, or Hoc dependent on their exploration results? Now Hoc is over 100p higher it may be about right, but depends very much if any good exploration news on the upside, and no political problems for the mines on the downside.. I would like nothing better than for both shares to soar.

On another note there will be more miners to choose from; (Silver) Wheaton which is royalty based, floats in London, I think tomorrow, also Kinross etc. However gold shares tend to lead the metal and they are not looking rosy just now & who knows what the US election will do to gold whoever

Totally agree Prof, and also would really appreciate the views of mining knowledgable among us, like Dasut etc, but you seem broadly, and somewhat scarily, right as ever like Tiger who mostly sold out around 220 and other friends. Prof, as you know the worries we share about Cey and POG are not willing the share down but, for both of us heavily invested here financially and emotionally, we want reasons why POG and Cey should rise. Given the limited ounces of next years and so higher costs we just hope rising gold will save the day but feels to me we are in a narrow range from which gold could equally turn up or down. Fingers crossed and willing it up as much as I can! About to sign with builder so worrying as not keen to cash Cey in now but... Not a good week as my sale of 20% at 137 ish and move of half of it to Hoc misjudged as Hoc has fallen since its results too, I think unfairly. And my Fres. Only OMI rosy as got sale of them right and gone in on fewer lower. You can always tell when things are bad as I start trading a bit trying to find a way out. I think you were probably wise not to reinvest in Cey today, I too am sitting on the half cash from my sale and was tempted back but not yet, first time I have sat on any cash in years. Have a great weekend lol and let us hope next week is better and that when gold breaks it is up not down, and thanks all for your collective wisdom!

I hope Tibbs is ok too and am missing him, he may be unwell, or away, or just upset by all the political bashing, I do wish everyone on this board could be as tolerant of each other’s views as most are and treat all with courtesy to which they are entitled, Tibbs has strong views based on a moral code whether same or opposite to others, is partly why we love him, and has been driven off before!

Question is it time to buy back now just below 130, past times it has continued down for a while after fallen production with management talk of recovery next quarter not fully believed, sensibly as it turns out, this time it is in a year and who know what will happen in the meantime and then permanently slightly lower production. Plus who knows if gold will escape the 1900’s doldrums up or dow, think I’ll wait maybe.....now to have another look at the price....

Endeavour bid at .0846 endeavour shares for each Centamin, would be worth £1.75 today not £1.26, though of course our company currently happily less attractive to prospective buyers.

Having held since 2005 last Thurs Fri I did top sliced, as this had gone too far too fast at 31p and 35.5 and then happily put in a limit sell at 42.5 and got out at 42.6,so selling half my holding at an ave of 36p as said. I bought some back at 28.5 this morning again with a limit order and shall now stick again unless fall further but may be done for now which is why 28.5 was my target. Last time I sold was when it shot up tp a bit over 10 on the Newmont buy in news a couple of years ago, after which my remaining half sadly fell straight back down

Tiger, I think they have not been highly rated ,on a PE only about 12 and with a whopping divi of 6%, I assume at this fallen market cap the PE will be around 16 which is not that demanding. If the PE comes back to the usual 12 or 13, then the share price will fall another 20% or so. So I moved more from Cey to Hoc first thing, as Hoc’s recovery should be faster, then the plan is to move that money back to Cey next year. Expect all will go horribly wrong....

Not great results, with production way dow and costs up, but only as bad as expected unlike Cey and Fres that were worse. Hence, as said, bought more here on the fall as next quarter and year should be better unlike poor Cey.

Thank you very much, intelligent analysis, I don’t usually go out and in but have been bitten by Cey bad news before, so managed to free up £150k, and don’t see a rush to rebut as should be weak compared to other miners for a while. I also have Hoc, Fres and Omi, but shall look at both the shares you suggest, does anyone else have views on them?

well I have bought more on 4% price drop on news that is neutral and stronger did and silver this morning

So the market is unmoved, the shares already fell a quarter on the shutdown news and gold and silver lower than the peak. Now we have to wait for all important exploration news form the final quarter. Seems fair value to me so do I reinvest Centamin sales here, or wait for Centamin to fall further and then rebut there?

Mr B I very much hope you are right, sadly I reckon the dividend will halve , though of course I hope not, as the company has a policy of paying out most of the profit which is a great thing about Centamin, except when that profit halves. I see us falling further, as I said before the market opening, and only recovering next year, unless gold takes off. If gold falls much then sadly we go back below a pound...before a lovely recovery next year ESPECIALLY if the management can be much clear with the news and expectation, and not keep surprising us with more bad news in drips

Thanks Razor, just appreciate tolerance and honest opinions including from all, most useful, especially pleased to hear from DJRyan who I have missed