Member Info for Sotolo

Supercharger and Tiger, who both post on the Hoc board as well as this, Super Wednesday is coming as both Cey and Hoc unusually report third quarter results on the same morning. Both should report sharply lower ounces - Hoc's partner in San Jose mine just reported production 75% down as slow getting going after Covid. With both companies we know about the bad news on production, though not the treble whammy of soaring costs from lower production, but will seeing it in black and white again hit each hard, or will there be forward looking statements that will save us? Will Cey be a repeat f the lousy news management of two years ago? Nail biting times, I am seeing our builder to finalise contracts the next day; the only thing saving me from the 25% fall in Hoc and Cey are my other two miners, Fres which is holding up well, and especially tiddler Orosur, their costs kept rising just faster than rising gold till they eventually closed the mine (why I so worry about AISC). I bought my first shares at 320p, but contrary to what pundits advise, I kept accumulating on the way down, the shares fell 200 fold and I ended up owning over 1% at an average cost of little over 13p. As they fell further I used 600,000 shares to create a capital loss I needed, and kept 450,000 which I had written off and were down to being worth £7000. Suddenly they rose nearly 30 fold, to £180k last week, so I sold half on Friday for £85k cheering me up, (very hard to do with 100%, 50% and 25% daily rises but not a fall and so remember Tiger selling out of Cey around 220 when it had risen too much and too fast. Now with some real money in the account I even resisted adding more to Cey as just don't know what this week will bring. Any thoughts on Weds, let's hope not as mishandled as 2018

Supercharger and Tiger, who both post on the Hoc board as well as this, Super Wednesday is coming as both Cey and Hoc unusually report third quarter results on the same morning. Both should report sharply lower ounces - Hoc's partner in San Jose mine just reported production 75% down as slow getting going after Covid. With both companies we know about the bad news on production, though not the treble whammy of soaring costs from lower production, but will seeing it in black and white again hit each hard, or will there be forward looking statements that will save us? Will Cey be a repeat f the lousy news management of two years ago? Nail biting times, I am seeing our builder to finalise contracts the next day; the only thing saving me from the 25% fall in Hoc and Cey are my other two miners, Fres which is holding up well, and especially tiddler Orosur, their costs kept rising just faster than rising gold till they eventually closed the mine (why I so worry about AISC). I bought my first shares at 320p, but contrary to what pundits advise, I kept accumulating on the way down, the shares fell 200 fold and I ended up owning over 1% at an average cost of little over 13p. As they fell further I used 600,000 shares to create a capital loss I needed, and kept 450,000 which I had written off and were down to being worth £7000. Suddenly they rose nearly 30 fold, to £180k last week, so I sold half on Friday for £85k cheering me up, (very hard to do with 100%, 50% and 25% daily rises but not a fall and so remember Tiger selling out of Cey around 220 when it had risen too much and too fast. Now with some real money in the account I even resisted adding more to Cey as just don't know what this week will bring. Any thoughts on Weds, let's hope not as mishandled as 2018

Bhargav thank you for your kind words, remember I am an original Uruguay Mineral holder, from way before the name change. . I also had a lot of correspondence with Ignazio, but probably too early. In Mar 2016 he wrote that we were profitable at $1250, but turned out we weren’t. Now I realise that was partly because of the expense of exploration. Shame I lost so much on the shares bought in the 300’s (a price hard to believe now) and not surprising I was disappointed as the price fell 200 fold over the years, always with promises it was about to come good, so I kept topping up and averaging down - why I ended up with over a million, managing to reduce my average price to around 14p. In 2018 I sold 670,00 at an average of 3p making a £72,000 capital loss, as thought £25k better than nothing. Happily the sale last week made most of that back. But phew what a ride! If they fall around 30p I might even buy some back, tho worry it will be a replay of last time they soared, but don’t intend to sell more of my remaining 220k for a few years and see what happens. Why did Ignazio go, not an exploration man? He certainly lost me a lot

I used to have over a million, but sold quarter through the 10 fold 2017/2018 fall, at a loss, and then another quarter near the top of the temporary 7 fold rocket when Newmont invested, then held my remaining half million as it lost that entire gain, so I entered this rocket rise with only these half a million left. Given the experience above I was very happy to sell half of these in three lots: beginning of Thurs just over 30p, end of Thursday 35p, and yesterday got 42.5p, as not only did I it remind me too much of the original Newmont investment but also nothing goes up in a straight line and Inhave too often held as it goes all the way back down again. So I am very happy with £85k cash, and 250000 shares left whichever way it goes. Especially as I had written them off, no longer trusting Salazar after he said Uruguay prospects were so good at the agm I attended in 2016 followed by unheralded soaring costs and then losses where there should have been soaring profits with higher gold, if aisc hadn’t changed dramatically to exceed the gold price.

Dear 987ihg654fed321cba. Curious as I was at the 2016 AGM too along with my partner, did you see us there? I communicated a fair bit with Ignazio by email before and after having first bought when these were called Urugay minerals back in for £2.29 in 2005. They steadily fell and I bought more to average down, ending up with over 1% of this tiddler. As gold rose they should have become immensely profitable but their costs unexpectedly shot up, rising faster than gold (hence my worry always on these boards about aisc), the mine closed and the shares fell to a few pence. I was very disappointed in Ignazio who had never intimated that this cost surge was coming and felt 'had'. Dispirited I sold half a third to create a big loss I needed, having to sell in about 15 transactions over months as so illiquid. When Newmont financed this exploration the shares rose back above 10p and I sold another third at break even. I was left with just under half a million that I had written off and forgotten but I top sliced and sold a quarter of them last night at 30p for a real profit to make up for some of the earlier losses, v hard timing as up 30% a day. So sometime chasing a falling knife and averaging down your cost base can end up very good.

Supercharger, my first ever filming was in the old Lloyds building back in 1984. I split like you between Cey, Hoc and Fres in that order, the first two have suffered quite large drops form temporary setbacks. I also have a few hundred thousand Orosur that I first bought for £2.29 in 2005. They steadily fell 99.3% to 1.5p and I bought more to average down, ending up with over 1% of this tiddler. As gold rose they should have become immensely profitable but their costs unexpectedly went up faster than gold (hence my worry always on these boards about aisc), so the mine closed. I sold half to create a big loss I needed. They were left with a prospect in another country. Then Newmont financed this exploration the shares rose back to 10p and I sold another third at break even. The last month my final third have risen 20 fold making up for the Hoc and Cey losses so I sold a hunk of them last night for a real profit to make up for earlier losses, v hard timing as up 30% a day. The point of all this is to say that AISC is the absolutely key metric I always watch, and will be quite a lot up at Hoc and Cey quarterly results next week which I shall be focussing on, and secondly sometime chasing a falling knife and averaging down your cost base can end up very good.

Thank you Supercharger, I own for sentimental reasons (the worst) as distant family relations and I like family businesses with skin in the game, along term outlook, and management and shareholders aligned. Interesting to watch Cey and Hoc play leapfrog, Hoc has risen from 15p ahead to around 90p which is its usual max, but with figures from both next week who knows, the market was very unfair to Hoc last time? Centamin’s quarterly report will also be far more important than usual. Hoc is of course far more volatile with a much smaller free float. What I like about both is the price is a third down because of short term setbacks, so even if gold falls the price should hopefully stay constant as the setbacks seen to be overcome . But which do you think has more legs at this price?

Actually we are now more a gold miner than silver tho the market as you say doesn't yet seem to have noticed. Sadly next week's third quarter numbers will be terrible again but hopefully they will presage a better final quarter so we will not be hit as on last quarter's totally expected lockdown news, also depends if San Jose now fully back and any exploration news for our fast declining assets

I think we pretty much all see it as long term good which is why we invest here. Amazing yield at these gold prices, but of course very dependant on which way gold goes. The mine problem look like inflicting a big short term hit to profits so looking forward to the next quarter results with hopefully more clarification

Difference between Hoc and Cey up to 77 which will rise further from here?

Yes Super we are keenly awaiting the 3rd quarter figure next week or the week after. The second quarter was very unfair as exactly as predicted but the shares tumbled on reduced output and higher costs. Will this happen again, Inmaculada only ramped up to full production half way through and San Jose never got there, wil the increased PM prices make up for lost production and will there be any exploration news. The sad thing is the market seems to concentrate so much on production when costs and PM prices matter so much more, and also should be looking forward, so guidance will be most important.

Mr Tibbs I am always impressed by the times of your posts, you seeming often to stay up into the small hours, but also writing bouncy posts again so very early, thanks

Thanks Prof and Marmot, who is right about the house, which is why I am worried by the fall just now. We have been shut away in a one bedroom flat above a garage in a 7 acre Suffolk oak wood where we have had planning since 2012. We got it all costed in 2013 but gold tumbled just before the start. With the current rise we felt brave enough to get a new costing which has taken since early Aug and is coming on Thursday. It is likely to use a substantial amount of my gold shares payed in tranches over the next year of building. The 1/3rd drop in Cey and hoc makes this a worrying proposition unless I think they are highly likely to recover, or I think they will fall further so a good time to move from gold to bricks. I am a long term holder who can usually ride the falls and rises, more sanguinely, rarely selling but topping up a bit as Jan-Apr but not now as too fully invested. The alternative is I have half the cost in Japan, so could start building with that, but don’t really fancy being a forced seller in gold, and I am not as sure as others which way it is going now,

Yes Prof great to see a director actually buying and a reasonable amount. Hopefully as you say shaken out and not a bounce, a lot will now depend on POG and of course the statement the week after next, if it is any more illuminating. There have been some fabulous posts from the mining knowledgeable here and all, thanks for the comfort

I am being entirely honest, and not stirring, just saying how I see it, which has been the use of these boards and appreciated in the Centamin one. I sold a total of around 10% of my cey, posting at the time, moving it to Hoc after its poor results, selling the first tranche after Hoc’s first tumble when the price difference fell to around 45p. as I thought the fall overdone, based on news we already new, so unfair; however I was proved wrong when Hoc kept falling, so as it turned out a wrong moved, I moved more to Hoc as the difference closed to around 15 . Now it turns out to have been a good move, with luck, with Cey now tumbling and the difference opening up to 70p. Now I am wondering whether it is the time to move back into Cey, or whether others think Cey will fall further, as Hoc did? Will Hoc now rise with their October results. Appreciate others’ thoughts, thanks.

Remember not just the costs that get forgotten but also we sold much of the gold we mined at lower prices so we made a lower profit in the first half, when fully mining, as gold was only £1150 in Jan and averaged about £1250 from Jan to the production problem,. The aisc till the problem was around £750, so profit around £500 an ounce less 52.5% so around £240 an ounce which I make about £80m till now on my little fag packet with very rough figures. The final quarter should have made us 50% more profit each ounce, as gold higher, but of course will not now.

When I said earlier the great advantage of this board to me is our multiplicity of views ...and respect for each other, I meant not just Tiger but the respect almost all, on this board have for each other, thanks it is really useful and I am feeling better now the hefty fall is done and the other positive posts and the IC comment. I just wanted to say that production falls lead to higher costs so can double or treble the effect on profit. However as Prof says we should hopefully be much clearer in a couple of weeks.
Supercharger I too am split between Cey Hoc and Fres, in that order, all are down around a third from their highs. In miners I also have a smaller value of Orosur that I have held for years, now that is a rollercoaster down from 300p in 2007 to 1.5p but up 10foldthis year returning me just to break even as I picked up along the way, though only have half what I did.

It is the greatest honour to be thought the same person as Tiger. Sadly, as I expected, the price is down further this morning and still generous. I never understand how when I say Cey is undervalued (as last 6 months) no one insults me, but when I say it is overvalued many do not want to hear, the great advantage of this board to me is the multiplicity of views, I have disagreed with Tiger but wiser than me he sold in the 200’s while I have held, and our respect for each other

Thanks Gnome, I was comparing profits now compares to what was projected for this year, not last year. If you compare profits to a year ago then our share price is stilll 50% higher even after this fall, expecting reduced profits 50% higher for this year compared last year rather than double. However this year’s Annual profit on the back of my fag packet is probably 440oz x $750 (gold less aisc) x .475(share and royalty) which is about $150k, and that is being optimistic on the $750 profit per ounce as most from first half, so looks to me like profit will actually be lower than last year and our shares are 50% higher expecting a quick recovery. Hence v sadly Cey opening lower imho,

I don’t have any agenda. I hold both Hoc and Cey, both have sadly fallen with good reasons to do so short term, I hold both because I believe in both long term, when they fall it is possible to buy more cheaply if you think good value, or sell if you think the falls will go further. Both shares are in the top 350 and I don’t believe bulletin board posts on direction have any effect , other than helping each other with useful debate, and anyway long term it is profit that affects the price. It just remains frightening when both fall a quarter or a third, when I am so heavily inthe two