Member Info for Sotolo

So Tiger are you still waiting to reinvest in gold and Cey, and when will you?

Main attraction as said might be if Barrick wins a concession in Egypt that they are going for, however it is possible Bristow might not be a s put off by law 32 as we have always thought, thinking he could eventually get closure on law32, having sorted other seemingly intractable problems such as Tanzania. Anyway even if we don’t like him a bid at a very hefty premium might be welcome by some. I thought it an interesting idea from Tiger

Yes Tiger I am wondering about that, particularly as Barrick is bidding in Egypt, if they win a concession it would make perfect sense, plus would get Centamin’s amazing cash flow, and Bristow probably has the clout to sort the court case

Many including Tiger sold a month ago as gold looked very toppy, too many writing only one way, up, so time to take profits. So we and other bigger fish in the market all selling take price down leading to charts and computers taking it further. How far who knows? Despite that I didn’t sell as too worrying for me getting out and in, tho Prof and others bravely do. Where next?

As gold has traded in a tighter and tighter range over the last month, with lower highs and higher lows, it has reached a point where it has to break out. Many like Tiger have been expecting down, with the market, and that is what it will be doing if it closes here or lower today. So bad for us short term. The question then will be where when and even if it finds a new floor from which to rise further.

Tiger, seems you were prescient, as the market tumble starts gold also falls and gold shares fall with the market, you got out brilliantly a month ago. Prof also was right last week, tho tempted back FOMO, which is so easy as price can shoot up, why I stick with it through ups and downs. However I wonder if the stock market and gold will diverge as investors seek safety and returns and buy gold and goldies? It is the all important question for us.

What’s up this morning, is it Sunday news stories about many foreign firms pulling out of Argentina as capital outflows now heavily restricted and taxed and economic prognosis dire, but this has been know about for a while?

Sensible people who can do the maths. With recovered production at these metal prices Hoc would be on a PE around 7. Capex might be a lot but it has been far too sold on the last results that were entirely predictable. As I have kept saying this share has been super cheap, imho, I bought even more on Tuesday as it has fallen a third in a month, mainly because of the past not the future. Now if PM’s hold up and our exploration extends our mines’ lives....but not for widows and orphans, what fun!

That’s what Powell said but it all depends on your view of where inflation will go as it is real interest rates that count, which are surprisingly 13 times higher In the UK than USA now: latest UK interest rate .1%, inflation .2% so real rate -.1%, latest USA interest rate 0% inflation and 1.3% so real rate -1.3%. With collapse in economies, and especially wages, some predict deflation, despite fed targeting 2%+; the Japanese have fought to get any inflation for 30 years and their QE hasn’t done it. However assuming all this money printing does create inflation, and real interest rates remain negative that should be good for gold. But that is not proven yet, nothing new yesterday, gold is still range bound and could equally break out down as up, as this correction probably has further to go, so you are probably a wiser man than me Prof in selling. I don’t try to time the market short term, so just hold, or reinvest the dividend, but this time mostly done that in Hoc as itching to go if/when PM,s rise

When as quite probably down before up

still range bound as for the last month, waiting for a break out which could be either way....

Prof, thanks for sharing much appreciated, gold now only 4% off its August high in sterling. However that should make Cey 10% below its Aug high or around 210, so it is a bit high as you point out, but maybe that is because the majority expect gold to break upwards. I now have £25k of dividend to reinvest or not. Depends really which way you think gold will break out of this range and when?

Barclays finally paid after the close today. Their conversion rate is 1.288 while Cey itself converted at 1.3144, for those with brokers who chose sterling, so this time Barclays customers get 2% more sterling. However the Cey share prices has risen about 3% or 3.5% since Friday, dividend day. So I am stupidly hoping Cey will be 215 tomorrow so Barclays hasn’t cost me anything but usually it does as there is always raised demand for shares after divi received and reinvested. Maybe choose Hoc or Fres, but cey’s dividend is so amazing.

As usual still no dividend from Barclays, if anyone gets one from them please do post

Tibbs, I remember you doing that. A couple of year ago I got £50 from Barclays, last year a gift pack of a malt whiskey and glasses, but last divi was just as slow; Cey shot up and I was many thousands out of pocket but no apology, so this time not even thinking about it. Maybe Cey will be cheaper by the time it eventually comes. It is another worrying time for us as range bound gold decides whether it breaks up or down. My sharecentre divi arrived this morning and I reinvested in Hoc as seem cheap compared to Cey just now, though will of course fall more sharply than Cey with silver, if PM’s break down not up

Gold has risen £60 from its recent low and is only £40 off its August high, and remember gold in sterling is what matters to our sterling profits and dividend translated into sterling.
I wonder how long I'll have to wait this time for Barclays to pay the dividend, and what the share price will do over the next week till I can reinvest; Barclays insist on taking the dividend in dollars and then exchanging for sterling, which is why they pay late as they say it takes them a week. However the good thing this time is the exchange rate was I think $1.31 on 20th Aug when Centamin did the conversion, now it is $1.285

Hoc like any share anticipates the future

Tiger when I did my back of a postage stamp calculation on profit you said remember to take capex off, which wiped out profit. So Tiger why is Hoc Capex not in profit and loss account? It seems development of reserves, rather than the inferred, implied, indicated, costs a huge amount to achieve for a temporary payback, and is costing increasingly more for less. So short mine life and expensive development called capex is my worry far more than temporary Covid closures . What is your view on reserves and chasing their tale increasingly more expensively.

Tiger, I wonder two things, are shares down in the basement partly because investors expect gold and silver to fall further.? And does the huge capex that Hoc needs to find replacement gold and silver, which will also cost more to extract, weigh heavily on the price, so is the price right? We can expect no profit this year, but will future years’ profits be eaten by higher expenses and exploration costs?

I feel this company offers amazing value, why I have now added £170k in last month. The company agrees and in a presentation on its website today, to accompany the RNS say THE COMPANY IS VERY UNDERVALUED COMPARED TO ITS PEER GROUP in a slide towards the end of it; they give a forward PE for 2021 below 10; free cash flow for 2021 of an amazing 14%, and ev/ebitda of 3.4, again like PE far lower than its peers. Cheap cheap cheap