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Interesting article in FT the Long View today, suggesting that the oil Price will rise, hence inflation, hence interest rates and, because of the inverse relationship between interest rates and POG, gold will fall. However isn’t this an inversE relationship between POG and REAL interest rates, so key question For us is whether inflation will rise slower or faster than interest rates as oil rises. Any thoughts?

Noel I really wouldn’t rise to it, most of us have suffered insults on these boards, the likes of I and the wonderful and stalwart Mr Tibbles have left the Centamin board only to return later. Often these come when one thinks the price is going to fall, however these boards are so useful just because they have different opinions. Imho It is far better to ignore insults and not reply in kind, otherwise it just encourages a decent to the schoolyard, and annoys others. All the best to all

Yes seriously 1045am, I have been nagged for years but Covid bought it on as I thought of all the problems my partner would suffer if I were to snuff it, then there are heart attacks and other sudden deaths.. And of course the great advantage to now , as Steve points out, is can’t ask all warring extended family. Funny thing is it turns out to feel rather romantic. Maybe in common with many others it is not our only Covid change, the wonders of gold so far means we are trying to build our Mies van Der Rohe like super modern house that has had planning for 8 years In a Suffolk wood waiting for gold to rise. My big economic question is are we in 1920 when after the Spanish flu there was a burgeoning of creativity, as us seeking our changes, or 1930.....

... and marrying tomorrow Which have managed to avoid for near a lifetime so hardly want to be buying at 8.05, while being nagged at, although of course this has no bearing on the price

Exactly so I am not going to sell In next 4’ and buy back Tomorrow

Except if it doesn’t; even if other things are equal, it usually falls a little less than the dividend possibly because with a slightly smaller fall there are more buyers than sellers as don’t understand ex doc. I have been caught out too many times trying to sell the eve before and buy back in the morn so pay cgt on the price fall at 20% instead of near double 37% on the dividend, but the share hasn’t fallen as much as the divi.

We don’t know yet tho I bought some more last thing yesterday. Could be a dead cat bounce and another pitch down, hope not

Only have to be held first thing tomorrow for divi. Alternatively like me if you don’t want divi, sell anytime today but back anytime tomorrow

You must be glad you got out

Dealts, I can remember anguishing about missing 54 and paying 57, again when buying at 92 when fell back to 80’s and so on, the whole point is you can’t time the lows, you bought at good value, when the price is double you won’t even remember a few pence on the buy

Dasut, me too as although this is fun also stressful. Many of us are anguishing over if or what to take off, some like Tiger did it a week or two ago, worried falling stock markets would pull down gold and miners too. However my reading is still that, although this could be a top, or a temporary one is near, everything is aligned for a decently more than 50% likelihood of what some of us have been waiting for for many years:
Negative real interest rates
Huge money printing leading to inflation
Competitively falling currencies
Centamin undervalued yielding an amazing 6% and rising
And a connected manic buying public - look at bitcoin a couple of years ago
Gold is not in a bubble yet so could have a way to go, and just look at silver!
Maybe take some off but I’d be brave and hang on, there may be a big correction but don’t try to time it, the only lesson of history is history has no lessons, this time gold may not be brought down with the market but enter bubble or anyway climb further. None of us can bear missing out, yet nor do we want to feel really silly if it falls. Well for me the odds are up so I’m hanging on for now in wonder and fearful, but sometime we will need to lighten and can help each other decide

Gold through 230 much quicker than I thought a month ago, fair value with rising gold imho now 250. Tiger did you sell out completely a week ago or are you partly back in, I do hope so as mad but fun, as said before knowing when to sell and buy back in is near impossible in this market as it may go far further than you think and then when it corrects not get as far back down to your sell price. However it is tempting to lock on some profits...except
We could have just made it out of the foothills onto the mountain proper, there will be some downs and ups over crevasses but the summit may still be far beyond our current sight

I have also thought Hoc an even more raging buy than Cey, it is a goldie with silver too, It is far more volatile that Cey partly because the Hochschild family still own a majority, but I like skin in the game; its price has suffered from Covid closures and short life mines, however it is cheap and will be churning out cash. With rising gold I raise my fair price of Cey from 230 to 240, I may have to upgrade my earlier 250 by sept and 300 by Xmas. However I stick to gold getting to a bit above 2100 and then having a correction before going further. However in this market I would just stay in.

Unless of course The politics relates to the price of Centamin or gold, the political reaction to Covid, as well as the disease, and the money printing has, giving us 50% dividend rise rather quicker, if more sadly, than I hoped. I expect a no deal Brexit to bring ten pound down again,tho could be wrong, further augmenting our profits. You could say with fairly constant gold production and costs, it is politics nd economics that affect our share price most.

Divi up 50% to 6 cents which is an amazing 6.25% even at this price. Equivalent to is getting$368 for each ounce mined (remember after emra get 52.5% of profit) As I have posted before Cey deserves a rerating at this gold price and should be around 230p imho

and of course more tax in Argentina, long a worry, but I think this is in the price; with gold at $2000 and silver at $25 Hoc will be on an extremely low PE going forward so even with double the tax would be churning it in

Money hasn’t been a store of value for centuries, the pound has fallen 4500% in the last 100 years alone. Now we can add negative rates and so extra cost of holding cash to that. Money is historically a means of exchange, gold the store of value. However Tiger is right that short term (next few years) we may get deflation in shares and an overall lower PE for the market given the heightened risk, while inflation elsewhere. Doubly good for the best long term store of value historically, gold, whose rise I believe will outweigh falling markets on our share. So glad you are still 80% in Prof, and hope Tiger is for once wrong though he may be proved very wise as ever as I am wiped out. Great we put our money where our mouths are. Ps remember in the fall from 2017 I was nearly drummed off this board for my pessimism through the two years it took gold to get going again, so not always a bull!

Tiger, we are all products of our own history, but in a way that is our challenge in forecasting as it can over influence us, so why this board is so useful, as now when for once our views diverge; I agree with all you say but with my history draw the opposite conclusion. The opportunity cost of cash is too high with current PM possibilities. However I do agree they have risen too far too fast and need a breath, no reason not to hold, and that it depends on the speed of the crash. I started my rant saying that the only lesson of history is that history has no lessons, but if we have had the 1929 crash and the 1930 recovery then it takes the next quarter century for markets to get back here, a long slow fall and good for gold and us. Couldn’t you keep just a bit in Cey and Hoc (silver may rocket). And let’s compare notes at Christmas.

Tiger, you are right as ever and I agree that ‘usually’ it pays not to be too greedy, and ‘usually‘ gold shares fall on a market collapse as everyone seeks liquidity. However I have said before that I think this is not ‘usually’ , with negative real interest rates, and huge money printing meaning, I believe, that gold
will only be hit briefly, and with our secure and rising dividends we will have a temporary setback from quite a bit higher than here; I am expecting Cey to make 250 by autumn and £3 by Christmas and wouldn’t want to miss that possibility. Of course you would be the one laughing when it falls back to a pound but I have a feelingly nay hope that it won’t this year.

Ps though our Half year results 3 weeks yesterday, will not be pretty!