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Tiger we always come back to what will happen to the gold price and miners when this “deceptively attractive Liquidity-driven rally which ...results in excessive risk-taking“ ends. Have they been driven higher only by liquidity, so will tumble with the rest of the market or, as I like to believe, are they the asset class that will suck money in as all about crumbles from this debt driven market boom?

Tiger with Inmaculada reopening, and PM price rises, this is a steal. As I said on Monday "could be time, after results for a switch back to Hoc, us switchers please stay in touch". Wish I had thought to switch back first thing when as posted I thougth results were good. I was 7 figures down on my all time high of 2017 back in March. Finally today I am back up to that high, so forward into blue sky. for if Hoc exploration goes ok, so it can replace current production as it runs out and keep aisc much the same, then it could be making the better part of £300k a year before tax which would be stunning for a £1bn company, f my sums are at all right? of course the rating is far lower than Hoc because of exploration worries as well as Covid but I really think Hoc deserves a rerating imho

Looks good to me, Inmaculada restarting,
Plenty of cash still, has barely fallen since Dec 31 from £166m to £162m , tho debt has risen from £33m to £58m.
Future guidance will come later after restarts but as long as mines don’t shut again should be churning out cash at these PM prices

In advance of 2nd quarter results tomorrow that should be horrendous, but looking beyond them should become bright again, depends whether market does,

and a very good morning to you, 190 is proving a tough hurdle but we are coiling to cross it convincingly Then 200.... a steeplechase

Yes Prof but I never actually expected them to make guidance, as usual In recent years, so wonderful that we are half way to being back over 500k oz this year, though I was a little surprised aisc wasn’t a little lower with increased ounces this quarter, and falling oil, but as others note very good to see such positive views about new concessions, and I hope that we should be at a new all time high, in 5 minutes, and bust through 200 soon which will be a tough level but should be possible imho

Tiger et al, for those of us who switch between Hoc and Cey. Some of us were luck enough tonswitch some of our holding back to cey when Hoc was 215 and had a quick reverse to Hoc and back again to Cey at 184 and 179 ish, now following Centamin’s good result today we await Hoc later this week with trepidation. A lot of bad news, as Tiger says, is in the price, but I expect truly horrid results. Will we be saved by soaring silver and future expectation or will it be so bad our price knee jerk tumbles. Could be time, after results for a switch back to Hoc, us switchers please stay in touch.

Results look pretty good, ounces above what we expected as maintainance slowdown postponed to second half, prediction for year maintained, profits way up with gold price as expected, steady as she goes
Centamin should bust its all time high today, and imho deserves a rerating to a higher PE, and a price of 230, and if gold rises further then more, Let’s just hope the market agrees with me

Today Centamin Is finally into the top 150 shares in Sunday Times top 200 companies. IF tomorrow looks ok, and the forward view is good, then I believe Centamin could be rerated from a forward PE of 12 to around 15 which would give your share price of £2.30 at the current gold price. On top if the gold price rises then the share price should rise about 2.5 times, so if gold rise to $1900 then we should hopefully see Cey north of £2.50. Wishful thinking......
I shall be looking hard at aisc tomorrow, the less important ounces mined, and anything about W Africa, plus overall forward view, fingers crossed, and then gold needs to hold at $1800, make #1900 and toughest of all go into new territory.

Poor old Centamin let’s all help give her a push over 190, so nearly over that hurdle ...and yes to all Tiger

Just so. The price is a fine balance between those who see reasons for gold to rise, and other to fall. You could add inflation/deflation and negative/positive real interest rates to your list Tiger. On balance I believe up but gold has a habit of confounding a bit like a long term partner (or mine)

Yes Mr Tibbs, I second that; while many like me pontificate on economics and the gold price, it is wonderful to read the contributors who really know about mining so thanks again Dasut etc, or Siko etc for sharing your Egypt or W.Africa knowledge, and especially thanks to all the courteous members of this board who respectfully post their views on where Gold and Cey might go and why, tolerating each others’ views, including Tibbs with whom I often disagree but always appreciate as it is the various views that help group super forecasting, and have helped me stick with Centamin over many years. Now let’s hope we crack 190, and even more that gold makes it through 1900. I remember my excitement at 1200, even more at 1300, but then the two years trying to break 1370. I always promised myself I would sell half my Cey as gold approached 1900, but then I said I’d sell half on the way down when our share price hit 160 3 years ago but never did. I am hoping it will be like that in reverse, just wonder how long and how many goes to get through 1900?
On a shorter horizon hopefully we’ll crack 190 this week, even today, and soon 200
Fingers and toes crossed For Monday
And a final one, ten year ago I bought a gorgeous small Oakwood with a garage and small bedroom, the house had burned down, and got planning for a dream home. I put the money in gold and have been waiting for it to increase enough that the profit builds the house. I was just about there in 2017. Now a larger (too large) house up the road that has been on the market for two years has finally agreed to half it’s price, which would be cheaper and affordable, but I would have to buy selling almost all my shares. And then sell my Oakwood with planning which could take months. I couldn’t bear to be out of the market till Xmas by which time I am hoping the money I make from Cey will make my building cost on flip flop hall. Roll on and lovely for us all to dream tho deeply scary the Coming world that should make us money..

If you imagine profits will stay much as they are, then the forward PE is around 12 or 13, which seems about right. However shares are not so much about current fair value as expectation. If you think that gold will rise and/ or the company will increase profits otherwise, as many of us do and all of us hope, then Centamin is undervalued. So fair value is about correct now, but with good news and rising gold we hope to see a considerably higher share price, and all meet up wearing our golden flip flops.

Well Alpharius I do hope for your sake and ours that flights resume to Australia soon. I concur with the wonderful Cowichan’s view of American history and buy gold because of the failures of Trump, his foreign policy and championing of trade wars and isolationism, his economic policies, his presiding over a greater divide between rich and poor and reduction of health service, and these policies’ effects on the future; might a ‘black population’ be angry just because of how Trump rhetoric and policies have affected them, rather than the failures of a ‘liberal elite’ to challenge him. I do not like arguing about politics on this board or at dinner. However if we are all buying gold onwards and upwards. Enjoy Australia and I hope they enjoy you

What a jolly morning. Yes indeed, just make it through 190 and good news (or no bad) with 2nd quarter results

Well yes Tiger, after the initial Dow collapse in 1929 the market rose by 50% before going into decades of near terminal decline. So I am entirely out of it other than miners. What I hope and think is that gold falls when the market has a shocking fall and there is a rush for liquidity but if the fall is longer and slower people may actually move into gold as an alternative to shares nd eroding money. Then there is inflation; the only thing preventing a crash for now is free money, but if it creates inflation it will be extremely hard to raise interest rates. Finally gold shares which are caught between the overall market and pe’s and the price of gold. Normally miners’ profits rise approx 2.5 x percentage the rise in gold. So even if they are pulled back a bit by the falling market from 2.5x rise in share price, they should still rise a bit faster than gold. I don’t want to time the market, I don’t want to be out, I have dabbled in gold since the 80’s, I would hate to miss what could be a party, gosh aren’t we all hopeful. (On gold, not politics, not looking forward to rerun of the 30’s if that is what we get). On another note interesting if Cey or Hoc rises more from here now their prices are back level.

Tiger you must have beaten me to it and sold most of what mm Was willing to buy at open. I am feeling glad I bought back at a few pence profit so fast, as said it was mostly in the price which had drifted back, so expected and got around 5% fall, but 1.5% rise in gold/silver equals roughly 5% on profits and the share price an silver is up that today. So wouldn’t want to be out.

Tiger did the same but could only sell 5000, I rashly bought them back again 15’ later so a few more in the ISA. Challenge of a relatively illiquid share.
On how big this fall should be our share price is nearly halved since aug 2017 when gold was $500 higher
I think this takes much account of the Covid worry, and more important overall falling productions with mines running out and worry about cost and expense of exploration to replace it.
On Covid hopefully none of our workforce will die and our company will behave very decently which may help problems with local people. Presumably after two weeks isolation the workforce should be through it and the company should be going again within a month or two, they have plenty of cash to weather this so if the shares fall more than five or 10% this could be another buying opportunity

You can read the RBC analyst in yesterday’s FT alphaville, including their report on the PM mining sector overall and other miners ,such as HOC that they have reduced to sector perform from outperform, the opposite of Cey, because of lockdown. Interesting that part of the Cey upgrade is because RBC think that they are unlikely to waste much in W Africa or corporate activity just now, but concentrate on keeping Sukari right, now it just seems sorted, so rising dividend which I always recommend them for.

Isn’t it lovely, now if golf just holds on and closes above this level hopefully we will have broken up out of the two month range in dollars that is so psychologically important, and cey will see 190 and even prof’s 200’s. Fingers crossed and full of hope...