Member Info for Sotolo

A. Worry about extended closedown and no profit this year
B. Mining shareholders may worry that hold and silver could break out down not up

Monday 12th? The next Monday 12th is November? Nothing today, Mon 11th, however there is an rns: "Further to the announcement made on 25 March 2020, the Company confirms that it will publish its financial results for the twelve months ended 31 December 2019 at 07.00 GMT on Monday 18 May 2020. "

Cey back to 170 including the dividend, it is feeling strong!

I doubt you will see 140 Ginger T

Unluckily I have a cost price of somewhere in 190’s, however I sold ITV and BA at treble their current price to switch to Hoc so not dispirited especially as I expect to se Hoc back above that price long before IAG and ITV recover.

I posted on Monday morning, after the Sunday reopening news, that Hoc was now far too low at 133, that afternoon still too low at 144 and this morning I wanted to post still low at 155; I think this pull back is just a bit of profit taking in a very volatile share with a low free market with the family owning 51% and institutions much of the rest. Hoc is normally around 1.6 times Centamin’s price, it is now under 90%, room to double if gold silver ratio recovers, gold price stays up, and Peruvian and Argentinian politics don’t interfere imho

Tibbles , really interesting, is there another page(s)?

As said this am at 133p yesterday’s news of mine reopening not yet in the price. Even at 11p higher it still isn’t if reopening goes well.

Peru said yesterday that large scale mining would restart with rigorous health protocols. I don't think this is in the price yet

A Bubble that broke the world by Garet Garrett published 1932 99p+vat on uk amazon kindle. The second book is The Fourth Turning, What the cycles of history tell us bout America’s next rendezvous with history , by Strauss and Howe written in 1996. It looks at 4 cycles making up 80-90 years since time immemorial, driven by each generations experience and forgetting, and suggests another cold winter is coming a bit before 2010 fuelled by debt populism etc and will last till 2025 , driven by yet another generation who have forgotten war, great crash etc, and end with a totally different world for worse or better. A resetting of debt, generational inequality, usually driven by war. For this book the extra Covid debt is just a contributor to something that was happening anyway. Why we are all in gold. I assume another general market tumble is beginning, let’s hope gold holds up and even rises this time.

Tiger, good lunch with the FT yesterday, with Kiril Sokoloff . He recommended two interesting books which I have started, one from 1930 on the crash, one from 1995 on the coming crash and big changes from 2005-2025. I agree with all you say, the Fed has been trying to keep the markets up with more and more debt for 10 years, now with this explosion it can’t carry on much longer without big change. So it is not if but when markets will tumble. Sokoloff is entirely in gold and miners. The question is whether they fall before they rise or just rise. And with miners what the political risks are if social unrest or big political change ensue.

Pipe dream, Centamin have lots of cash even after paying the whopping dividend, so it would have to very dire for them to need to sell assets to raise cash, only with gold falling back below $1000 for a while. Our share price may be pulled back with the market, the big question is whether gold rises, as it did after first falling after the 2009 crash, pulling our share back into positive territory; negative real interest rates and intense money printing suggest to me that it should, but we should expect some liquidity selling hiccups along the way

I agree with you Tibbs, as said feeling optimistic over the mid term, and lucky with that overdraft used to reinvest divi early, thanks again for asking, tho kicking myself for missing the 20p fall last week, and not selling and buying back at divi time as usual. It isn’t an easy market to read and just feels safer and easier to stay in. The reason I am not a short term trader is there is so much luck involved in that and if you make as many bad short term choices as good ones, as I probably would, then like Roulette you lose as the house, the market makers, always win. I think most people on this board seem pretty honest and most rue wrong decisions and thrilled with right ones, the real right one to me is being in Cey long term.

Thanks Tibs, you are right he overdraft starts charging today,however only a max of £90 for the month. I will use the divi to pay back the overdraft although Barclays insists on taking it n dollars then taking for ever to pay it out in pounds so I will be lucky t see it by the end of the month. However it means I will have in effect have reinvested the divi at around 130, which would have cost me rather more now. For the first time I didn't sell up the day before ex div and then buy back the same number of shares and pocket the difference as I find the spread only works for small amounts and us usually a penny or two for me which is 1% off the div, but of course the first time I don't do it Cey has shed 10p, hey ho. Could have paid off the overdraft a few times over buying back the same amount. However I am feeling particularly good this eve that although markets are marching down gold seems to be holding 1700 so hopefully it will get cey up again despite the coming market falls.

Tiger, I too was planning to post sell in May. I have sold everything this week, at what seems the end of this dead cat bounce, apart from my far too many gold miners and Japan. The big question has been whether Gold rises fast enough for the collapsing market not to bring down Centamin. I have hazarded that is to do with the speed of the collapse, fast and gold will need to be sold to pay margins, slow and it can be more orderly. Unfortunately the market fall seems to be starting with gold down too, which is worrying for Cey share price. We shall see...

Zambia miner is right, nothing to do with settlement. It is who owns on the share tomorrow ie the buy or sell date . I usually sell on the last day (tomorrow this year) to avoid getting the dividend, often at 4.20pm, I have never accidentally got it, so the buyer must. I get the equivalent when buying back the shares for less the next morning, and two weeks earlier

However tomorrow I may bite the bullet not sell and pay ove 50% tax on the divi, as I am afraid of losing even more as Centamin correction may be nearly through, and I don’t want to be caught without it overnight in this climate..... pondering.

Please let me know as soon as you decide, Cey is feeling a little toppy now, but also I think has further to go once dethrothed, but getting the timing right on an out and in is, as you say, so hard, nearly did on thur/fri again, but very glad I didn't. Presumably as well as a retrenchment now after such a rise, it should take a few goes at getting though 190, assuming it does. Then PE will be 12 assuming no hiccups so not so cheap.
I think the overall market will fall probably quite soon, and quite a way, and certainly on next results season and again on winter Covid resurgence.
If the fall is relatively steady as she goes, down and down, I think gold could do well driven by hugely low rates, masses of money printing and where else to put your money, as currencies ultimately fall. I am hoping gold will rise fast enough to obviate the cey fall
However if the market suddenly tumbles, speculators will need to raise margins again so may sell gold and cey again. As you say difficult but only choices seem gold, miners or cash, miners are dangerous but could be best....My cey are currently 40% of my general account, 55% of ISA and 72% of Sipp, about 50% overall; I hadn't done the percentages till just now, I must be mad, though of course the percentages made more sense when CEY was half this price and other shares double. Plus I love earning 6% on half my savings, half of it tax free.

The further shutdown means 7 weeks stoppage orprobably 10 with time to ramp so 20% of production gone and all profits or more gone for the year, and that’s before any further extension
However that is in the price, and I just posted this on advfn, similar reasoning to what I put on Cey board, but also comparing Hoc to Cey. Hoc has usually been approx 1.6 times Cey share price, currently it is .6.

A. Hoc should make $700 an ounce on its gold WHEN it returns to full production. Say this is 200k ounces that is around £100k profit, excluding silver exploration and tax,and value of whole company only £670m!
B. But badly needs expensive and successful exploration for seams running out
C. Silver could fall again in next market tumble and even lose money every ounce as last month
D. It could stay closed for longer haemorrhaging cash
E gold could fall

However assuming gold stays up and even silver the big question is:
Between NOV 1929 and MAR 1930, following the crash, the stockmarket regained 44% of its loss what is happening now)
It then fell 80% and took till 1954 to regain its 1929 high
IF, as I expect, the market is going to take a very big tumble, how much does Hoc fall IF gold prices remain the same, or put another way how much do gold prices need to rise for Hoc to stay even?

My very rough guess is Hoc falls half the market fall, at stable gold, which would be 40% if same as 1930, or if gold rises to $2000 and market tumbles we would end up even. Of course I hope I am wrong and profits don’t become worth half as much for each penny of share price, but become so rare people will pay for them. However hoc has picked up now partly because of rising gold, partly results as we guessed, but a lot with 25% rise in the market. So what happens when market turns down?

Well if exploration goes ok, mine gets going and gold stays up we will be on a very low PE. Silver is an uncounted bonus. Hoc shares have traditionally been around 1.6 times Centamin, this ratio rose when Cey had a hard time, and has now fallen to .6 times. If hoc did all the above and returned to 1.6 times Centamin at today’s price it would be about 270. I think it is a high risk raging buy. I thought Centamin was at 80p and it has more than doubled. I invest on a two year view.
Of course if lockout remains, gold falls with market, exploration fails and cash runs out...
But for me on balance the upside far outweighs the down with this , currently justifiable, very bombed out share down ove 60% from its high.

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb

Prof and all, the $1.6bn question:
Between NOV 1929 and MAR 1930, following the crash, the stockmarket regained 44% of its loss
It then fell 80% and took till 1954 to regain its 1929 high
IF, as I expect, the market is going to take a very big tumble, how much does Cey fall IF gold prices remain the same, or put another way how much do gold prices need to rise for Cey to stay even?

My very rough guess is Cey falls half the market fall, at stable gold, which would be 40% if same as 1930, or if gold rises to $2000 and market tumbles we would end up even. Of course I hope I am wrong and profits don’t become worth half as much for each penny of share price, but become so rare people will pay for them. However cey has picked up now partly because of rising gold, partly good results, but a lot with 25% rise in the market. So what happens when market turns down?

Half my shares don’t fit in the isa so I pay tax on the divi and it bring me to that band between 100 and 120k income where you lose your personal allowance so pay an extra 20%. So twice a year I sell my general AC Cey shares, the day before ex div, and buy them back the morning after. As quite a sizeable chunk I often have to deal in two lots (has anyone else noticed deal size you can get getting smaller often can’t even get £20k now)) and seem to get a 2p spread and then the shares never seem to fall back as much as the divi, maybe with so many reinvesting, so lose. It seems silly there is no one who will take the shares off you for a small fee at 4.29pm and return them to you the next am. All of which is to say having failed to save with that strategy I am giving It up, just because Cey never seem to fall as much as the divi, so probably will this time.
Great week, really on a roll as you pointed out not even to be dented by falling gold, 190 here we come...

Hit 190 2 years ago this week from memory?

Sorry I put from May this year but from July is not much different and it still means there was a lot more of profit to distribute to shareholders at the last peak in 2018 than this coming year and many investors look short term, hence I think share price in this area, despite higher gold price now, as depends on profit,