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By my maths our PE that has been a bit above 12 for a while is now below 11.5: At these prices Cey has market cap of £2.3bn, and should be making $950An ounce less 52.5%tax on 520koz so should be making over £200k. On this metric Hoc even cheaper. So I am sticking quite madly with 80% of saving in Cey, Hoc and Fres in that order. I am probably mad, but I think it is what we have been waiting for. Fingers crossed for 6th. I expect a big PM correction in march up but not yet.

I read it that as said this is just a small correction in PM’s and we are still in the foothills so I take a very different (and far madder) view; I have 80% of my savings in Cey,Hoc,Fres. At these prices Cey has market cap of £2.3bn, and should be making $950 less 52.5%tax on 520koz so should be making over £200k so too cheap with PE under 11.5. On this metric Hoc even cheaper. So I am sticking but really appreciate you telling us.

Challenge for silver, as supposed to gold, is it is an industrial metal as well as a precious one, so tumbled far mor than gold in last rout. However I am hopeful this is a correction.
Tiger next time tell us when you sell rather than day after

Gold is down nearly 1½% in sterling today, that means about 4% less profit for cey, which is about 8p off the share price. Our PE is staying pretty constant. And a bit of profit taking in gold, and thus our share is only to be welcome. The faster all goes up the bigger the danger of a really hefty correction imho. So I am happy that slowly but surely we go up up 10 or 20, down 5 or 10, suits me and I will just sit here. Next stop 230 I hope and as said a relief to see this pull back which I do not believe is the big one yet

The danger for me is when I am misled by my good luck to believe in my own brilliance, whether in investing, career etc. Well done! Luck is a very important part of succeeding at anything that after we rationalise

Noel, You are wise as ever, thanks. I think a correction as now is very healthy, after such a huge and rapid rise; but it is hard to tell of this is. a small one or the big one on the way to $30 and above. Moreover I think that Gold may have a floor around its old high around 1920, and I expect it not to have a big correction till 2000 and more probably a bit above 2100 which means silver's big correction may not be till near $30. I am therefore, perhaps foolishly, staying in as it is hard to time the ins and outs in a bull market. I have sold Hoc on the way up at 185 and 255 but each time had to jump back in a few days later, once as the correction was small, at almost no profit, once at a small loss so bought more which more than made it up..

Hoc was 190 two weeks ago this morning just before Inmaculada reopening was announced. It has risen almost 50% since, hardly being held back from an aggressive advance; the last fortnight, with that news and silver rise, has been stellar and you ant more...

The silver market has risen too far too fast, so a correction would be healthy, reckon maybe a small one now a bigger one in a little while, I am holding as hard to time especially as gold and silver have a habit of throwing one off balance with the unexpected.

The PM market, like all that are rising, needs healthy corrections, we are about due a small one, reckon the big one is still a little way off imho which is easily wrong as gold market is adept at wrong footing one with the unexpected

FYI latest on Peru, it is not super dangerous but still risky with delayed permits, less stable government and a lot of local unrest about mining. All in the price imho

REUTER’S: Indigenous groups in Peru are turning to the courts with a new legal strategy for keeping mining and oil projects off their lands, racking up victories that could make it harder for companies to secure permits in the Andean country, a major minerals producer.

Peru's once influential conservative Popular Force party has suffered a crushing defeat in congressional elections.

LATEST HOC FINANCIAL REPORT “ protests relating to the Las Bambas and Tia Maria projects have increased social demands and expectations, and have led to wider social unrest ”
Peru went through a constitutional crisis which led to President Vizcarra dissolving Congress and calling for new congressional elections in January 2020. This situation led to increased political risk and reductions in public and private investment with lower than expected economic growth in 2019.
 
Mining continues to be a highly regulated industry where multiple permits are required leading to increased delays and costs. Moreover, the prior consultation process for indigenous communities has caused substantial delays in the permitting process for exploration and operational activities. In addition, in October 2019, President Vizcarra announced that he would be introducing legislation to modify the mining legal framework. A government-led commission has been tasked with studying potential reforms. This initiative has increased the legal and regulatory risk for the industry as the outcome is uncertain.
 
In terms of social conflicts, protests relating to the Las Bambas and Tia Maria projects have increased social demands and expectations, and have led to wider social unrest. Governmental authorities remain sensitive to conflicts between communities and mining companies and typically take a cautious approach by prioritising dialogue between parties.
 
Congressional elections in January 2020 resulted in the election of nine different political parties, with no single party having a majority. Given this fragmented nature, it is unlikely that any major reforms may be approved. Left wing and radical anti-establishment parties have increased their representations in the new Congress. Some of those radical parties obtained a majority of the vote in the regions where our mines are located, increasing the risk of populism and anti-mining sentiment in these regions.

Yes today we convincingly marched through the all time high of 2010 and are out in new territory. Most exciting, and scary, as we hold on to the bucking bronco.

Lower production (profit warning), New exploration dependent, which curtailed because of Covid, high risk politically and tax wise with new regimes in Argentina, and Peru, then all mines closed, this year will be pretty disastrous but looking beyond all this I have posted Frequently over the past few months that these are a raging, if risky, buy and have been topping up along the way.

A. People should post when they sell shares not days after when proved right
B. Ultimately timing the market is very hard and for us long term holders loses as much as gains. As posted last week I think Cey should rapidly get to 230, in a rising market selling and hoping to buy back cheaper is too risky. It used to work when you could buy in the morning and at the end of the day sell if it had gone up, having not had to put up funds, or sell something else and pay for them till price returned, then sell. However now none of the cheap online brokers seem to allow that?

So barely a pause breaking through the all time high so should go further. Today should hopefully be interesting. Silver over $24 and up 6% in sterling, quite wild, nearly time to reopen Arcata tho wonder how long that takes. Company will need to be convinced as I that silver heading north. What a share to begin, wish had more, tho that would be greedy. Enjoy and where today....?

It is not waffle but useful and wise.
We are all wondering whether there about to be a big correction and should we sell to take advantage of it, and make some profits real
Imho
A. gold and silver often don’t do what you expect, and we very much expect a correction...
B. hoc is undervalued at current gold and silver price
C. thereforE it maybe better to take a longer term view, gold and silver may be overbought now but the future looks right as long as we have negative interest rates and all the rest
So I am not going to try to time an out and in but stick with it

Prof you are wonderful, thanks, let's go on being brave but as I have said to Tiger do please all post when you think of taking some profit

Tiger, yes the overall market PE fell to 7.4 at the 2009 low which would mean Cey falling by 40%, however that would be partly because overall profits would be expected to be lower which won’t apply to Centamin unless gold tumbles, in fact a a 15% rise in gold would obviate this share fall .
Secondly you think that gold will fall as everyone seeks liquidity, but gold has a way of confounding expectation and it maybe that gold is the one place people wish to leave their money or buy more.
Thirdly the Cey PE is already 20% below the market so I expect it to rerat which would halve that 40% loss above which for the other reasons I don’t think it will
So I am being brave (or mad) and staying fully invested In the miners having sold all else but Japan. As long as we have negative real interest rates I see gold rising further, and I don’t see interest rates turning positive anytime soon, plus people have to put money somewhere and ther will be some left..

Prof Tiger etc, yes great times but amidst such wonder my thoughts are already turning to when do we take some money off the table, or not, as timing is so hard. I see a few hundred dollar correction in gold that has risen so massively, I always thought it would be around 1900, which we have amazingly reached. Now I think it is more likely around 2000, which may be a struggle to break, or most likely a little above 2100, by which time Cey should I reckon be around 300. So I think I am going to be brave, nay foolhardy and wait till Cey hits 295(if ever) when I will take 20% off. I am sure others will be trading much sooner, even now, what are your thoughts and please all do tell when you do, and reasons. Or is this a false dawn when we look forward to huge profits and unpredictable gold will hit us again, I don’t think so?

I think round numbers like 200 are always psychological hurdles and we have come a long way fast, but once through that I too hope to rapidly get to 220-230 unless gold has a big correction, as one might expect as it challenges its all time high, in which case we might have to wait a bit. I too bought another £35k Hoc (selling Japan) a couple of days ago in the lower 250's, I still think if Cey is cheap Hoc is absurdly cheap and a raging buy though more risky politically and exploration dependent. These are getting embarrassingly profitable tho we will certainly be clobbered by raised cgt unless we sell before, but then what to buy.

Can we finally make it over £2 today?