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I also recommend again the Fourth Turning, an American Prophecy, by Willian Strauss and Neil Howe, written in the 1990’s it predicted all this and what come next (not exactly Covid but the 2009 financial crash, and something to set it off further ten years later). I always ask people whether we are currently in 1920 or 1930, a senior civil servant actually replied 1914, which is more like what Dalio suggests. Thanks again Gnome,

Two wonderful books, Dalio a reread, but can’t wait, thank you so much Gnome. It is why we are all invested here, we will be proved right, just a question of if it is while any of us is still alive to enjoy it

Yes, as said below the key for me is what exploration reports come.. quarter 4 hasn’t got long to go but no update yet, hopefully soon in the first quarter and we badly need them to be good!

Worth remembering pound has risen 10% against dollar since the Aug high which means 10% greater fall in gold and 10% off the share price; if the pounded had stayed the same our shares would be at 1:35. Just a sentiment rows with the folding pound after the Brexit vote, it is falling comparatively with the rising pound now. So it is good Centamin is managing to level peg in Stirling just now

Indeed Supercharger, however the dollar fall is in itself not good, it is a question of whether gold rises faster than the dollar falls, otherwise sterling profits fall.
And Dark Knight I am not sure which mine they are supposed to give an update on, they are all ticking back up, San Jose slowest. The two big questions are first the secular question of declining ore, so when the mines are fully back up, how much will they be producing and more important at what cost, for it seems forever rising, and second what exploration reports come, for they badly need new metal

Dark-Knight, I hate it when most people think that silver or gold will do one thing as then they usually do the opposite, so I was happy to see none of the stock pickers recommending gold shares for next year so far. My take is that we still don’t know if we have just seen a correction in a long bull market, that is on the way up again, or we saw a top in August and have just witnessed an upward correction in a bear, so on down, I think likeliest is a bit more consolidation or another lurch down but then up again to 30 and beyond. However for our shares to get past 220 and then further we need one or more of the following, and most of all time so we see if Ed sold his 12% after a 30% price fall because he though long term it was going to get worse, or couldn’t borrow money for whatever he needed ie his construction companies etc so we need one or more of:
Time, to get over Ed sale, or not
Rising silver price
Good exploration news
Good political news in Peru/Argentina
To my mind it is impossible to know which way the share will go as the above are fairly unanswerable, however with the price now 40% down if gives some leeway . It is a fast moving share and with any of the above could shoot 220, but without any could tumble. The big questions just now, why did Ed sell, and will we find replacement metal...and can silver ride to the rescue

True Breaktwister but miners share proce looks forward, and the sector didn’t believe yesterday’s rise especially when gold failed to hold above 1900 for the second time in two days which is short term bearish. We really don’t know about the medium term and whether we have just seen a correction in the bear that began in Aug, or on the othe hand if what w have seen since Aug is just a correction in a longer bull. The miners are suggesting the former but are hopefully wrong. However we really could go either way imho

As said I really do think it as simple as it had a try at 1900 yesterday, and again today, but traders took profits as think this is a hard place to get past, causing it to fall, I hope it will have another go, be interesting to see what US feels this afternoon as they will hopefully be more focussed on their stimulus than our problems. But key time for us now, have we reversed a big correction since August, or have we just witnessed a short correction up in a bear and on down?

Dark, my guess is exactly that, it will take a little while for the market to get over Ed’s surprise sale, and to see whether there is any particular reason for it that comes out of the woodwork...or hopefully not

Gold lately seems to have a real job keeping it up, so to speak, it had a go at 1900 and failed, hopefully it will have another more successful go unless it has given up.

Wonderful to hear from you Market and very best of luck for your health in 2021, please keep posting, so appreciate it. I was just talking to a psychiatrist friend of mine who has a lot of investing clients and recommends investment books and economic ideas to me, and suggested reading about the Vienna Circle, the cafe society there in the 1920's. in which they all argued strongly with each other to come up with some of the most interesting science/philosophy. I mentioned Superforcasting to him about how, in investing and forecasting, groups who disagree and discuss tend to beat those who don't. like the analysts who roam in herds. The huge value of this board is the different opinions, so I respect the rights of Mr Tibbs and his opponents, whose views I sometimes agree with sometimes not, but can they try to avoid insulting those who don't insult them, or question their integrity, whilst of course put a different point of view as we can all interpret the ramifications from facts differently
On which note Prof you are right as ever apart from the time scale, . I have used gold price $1850, the mid ounces mined and mid aisc that the company predict, subtracted $90m for extra Capex they mentioned, subtracted 5% royalty and 50% profit share. On that basis the pain carries on through 2022, and 2023 with around £60m and £75m profit by my cig packet sums, way under half what we have been used to, though better than 2021 when we make hardly any, especially when the new blocks are awarded and we have to start spending on them. So it will be a long wait but I shall hold in the hope that rising gold saves us in the next three years and then the company is back on an even keel. All imho and just throwing it in for any or all to disagree and hopefully with something a bit more interesting than just saying tripe. Let's keep provoking, having divergent views but also listening, you are all so useful to me

Iglu, quite right but unfortunately your gold calculations are not quite right. First you have to take off 5% royalty, then 50% profit share, then ounces mined next year are forecast at only 415,000, (not even the reduced 475000) so altogether a bit over 60% less than the figure you suggest. However profits are now much lower, with higher costs, so the multiplier is greater, which means $100 rise in gold should increase our profit by about 20%, and hence the fair share price by around that too..

Absolutely the question. In Valuations in Four Lessons Aswath Damodaran of NYU, concludes "Investment is the game where luck is the predominant paradigm".
Here's hoping.....but who knows

So sorry Rebess is entirely right

Gold is up £40 which is under 3% well phentermine has risen by about 12%, which is about the right multiplier currently around 4, gold price inc to profit inc , so right on course

I was looking yesterday evening and the Centamin price now is exactly what it was on Dec 16th 2019 which is pretty good. Gold is up almost 25% in sterling (the currency that counts for our sterling share price, also interestingly gold is lightly down over the last week in sterling which is why our share price has been relatively flat). However this is more than obviated by the fallen production, increased costs and extra Capex. So the share price is already looking forward to better mine management. Now let’s hope that gold starts rising in sterling too, and the rise is real, which comes back to Tiger’s post in the exchange rate.

I have been reading a great book, the Art of Execution, recommended here, which divides investors into three, rabbits who don’t do anything when the price falls, assassins who sell when the price falls a fixed percentage, and hunters who buy more as the price falls. Rabbits do worst, Hunters do best as long as the price doesn’t fall for ever and that’s what I try to be; like others here, now fully loaded in goldies again so scary, but at a lower ave proce. I have also been watching a fascinating talk by the Professor of finance at NYU, who says that valuing a share is a combination of the maths and the story, both are equally important. The story of Hoc has been terrible in the last year, first a production drop as short mine lives, then Covid exacerbated it, and sent costs up, then Ed selling after all this and a 30% fall, all compounded by the poor information flow and accounts. The numbers are really hard to work out as hard to tell what Capex is included in aisc and whether it is making any real profit now. However my hope is the exploration will add more ounces than mined, the mines will ramp up to pre Covid, the Aisc will fall and above all Hoc will become better at communications, and then gold will be the story.

Tiger I am thinking the same. Tips 10 yr is down to -.98% almost level with early Aug. 10 yr treasuries have risen a third from .56% to .92%. But the gap which is expected real future interest rate is growing, and now nearly -2%, and of course gold should usually grows with negative real rates getting ever larger. So I very much hope this is a repeat of dec 2015, 2017 etc and we will roar back, but we won’t know till/if we get back through 1920. The other big positive for me is the number of negative stories about gold and the etf outflows. I have been reading two interesting things, the Art of Execution, recommended here, which divides investors into three, rabbits who don’t do anything when the price falls, assassins who sell when the price falls a fixed percentage, and hunters who buy more as the price falls. Rabbits do worst, Hunters do best as long as the price doesn’t fall for ever and that’s what I try to be; now fully loaded in goldies again so scary. I have also been watching a fascinating talk by the Professor of finance at NYU, who says that valuing a share is a combination of the maths and the story, both are equally important. The story of Cey has been terrible this year but it looks like Horgan is writing a new one

Auson, I meant he would be another 10m down on top of the 30m he has lost in past couple of weeks, so at leat he should be pleased he saved that, when I sold.around just 20% of my Centamin at just over 200p I was relieved I could buy them back at half even though my remainder had tumbled, but at lest I had saved worse And if Edouardo needs some cash, better to have got it a couple of weeks ago than now, when at the same 15% discount he would get around 160p. probably I was pleased. Anyway Auson always enjoy your posts, and Eva, well I appreciate her views, if not her schoolyard Jones, especially that we will definitely be over 300p within 6 weeks, which will make Edouardo feel a real silly billy. I so so hope she is much more prescient than me, if only optimism could make the price rise. . Best regards to all

Yes but last time went all the way back down and took a couple of years to bounce back. So as Inhave been saying since 40p this looks the same, I sold some then but keeping the rest as although they steadily fall don’t know the timing when whip back up but expect a year or two again. Charts look so similar