Member Info for SmartyP1

Forgot to add my strong buy rec as I must have fallen out of the top 10 ;)

Almost 40% decline and no news, good, bad or indifferent ? £75m m/cap reduction ? As far as we know they’re turning over c $28m based on 2400bopd and 50:50 sales MR/Domestic as communicated at c$32 net. The MR oil is being picked up by the MRs, achieving c $36/$37 before tax. Take a look back at the turnover/profitability over the last few years, we are in a far stronger position now, profitable and not needing funding. We have the barge cash to land in 2024 and looks like more to come.

We have Block 8 to appraise and nobody knows the opportunity there. Still producing oil although depleted so I assume with the new drilling techniques, Casper will likely build volume next year.

We’re producing an average of c 1300bopd before horizontal success and providing no issues at MJF/SY, we have a cash cow that achieved 4000bopd briefly before 142 issues and Casper targeting a manageable 5k, that’s without targeting new zones at SY.

802 at 700-900 bopd ? Obviously we don’t know what’s happening but the initial flow communicated was a a result a kick through the drill string, a managed blow out, not into a controlled production environment. If successful, that’s a huge boost and 803 intimates it could be as why drill another unplanned deep.

I believe we get news next week and I suspect that we may see buying rather than selling, dividends positioning, the fact that we’re way oversold and it’s only us PIs that dictate the price.

Going to be interesting and money to be made and lost.

Or maybe they’ve held back news and ready to pen a Blockbuster !!

Possibke positives ?

-802 commercial as why drill 803 ?

- Divi payment

- Block 8 agreed

I believe we see a flat to slightly reduced prod number and no progress on shallows

Most important thing they hold on divi, even if they reduce it

TT

They were meant to be doing remedial work on 141/142/145 so a new 142 well ? nobody knows but that suggests remedial activity hasn’t worked.

Some peeps are talking about corporate activity going on ? anything is possible after this period of radio silence.

We’re going to get an update next week and I’m expecting it will cover everything. I’m a tad concerned re Divis being pulled or stalled, not that I’m too fussed but many newbies invested on the basis of healthy Divis and we’ll possibly see a sell off. I also suspect there’s leverage in play snd that’ll get squeezed too if it’s the wrong news.

I’m not expecting a happy story operationally as we’d have received updates by now. As long as the prod nos are holding up and the receipts are healthy, then the show continues and the $15 CE cash is an added bonus will ensure that they can continue with the drilling campaign.

Time for speculation coming to an end and probably Tues/Wed for update, hopefully not another episode of CS !! Also looking forward to seeing the financials come month end.

TT

K,

Probably early next week latest. They’re getting some flack from PIs and always good to shake the tree now and then. Good, bad or indifferent, only they know but the latter got me.

Mr C,

Not after inside info but investors can definitely be heard and effect change, even in a minority shareholder position. They are a listed company and they have to follow rules and we do have teeth with various options to pursue if company not playing the game. They want the divi structure, it’s great for them and they are taking a chunk of tax free cash out each year, we can damage that if there’s enough noise. We’re not at that point but important to make it known to the leadership and hopefully they listen snd we get news pronto, maybe tomorrow ?

TT

Somm, apols, yep I missed that.

K,

We have to go back over a year to see the outcome of 142 @ 1400bopd taking prod to 4000bopd.

‘Board of Caspian Sunrise PLC ("Caspian Sunrise" or the "Company") is pleased to report the successful workover of Well 142 on the MJF structure, which has added a further approximately 1,400 bopd (at 8mm choke) to the BNG production capacity, which including the existing South Yelemes wells, is now approximately 4,000 bopd’

If you read the comms from that date and compare to what the plan was, timings etc, it’s a total miss snd that’s ignoring the ‘success’/failure outcome. They were meant to be focussing on shallows with 141/142/145/155, a first spud @ SY ew structure. Over 1 year on ? they certainly haven’t followed their planned activity schedule.

Hopefully speculation stops this week and we can digest an update without Carverspeak. Many investors are getting irritated, a couple have complained to the Nomad today and I’m I. Touch with investors who want to go further but I believe we should wait it out. You’ve written to HQ, I’ve done the same, hopefully they get the message. J

Thanks DD.

I wasn’t planning on having it, it was meant to be the TKR first but change of plans and hip first followed by knee in Sept, then off on holiday :) Hopefully a new man next year and back to sport and keeping up with the missus ;).

Et al,

We’ll know soon enough but if they are slowing, stalling operations to pay divi, maybe the CE drill tender to alter the rig was more cost than they expected and had to be done as part of the deal ? All speculation but as with DD, I’m hoping to see Divi declaration this week which will allay fears. Still sone peeps adding regardless of radio silence as they believe it’s value at this price and that news will be mixed as a worst case .

Let’s hope you’re right DD. I wasn’t fussed about divi as wanted them to have enough cash to accelerate operations and then press the button when they were strong enough to do so. On the face of it, it looks like they’ve gone too early and stalled Ops, subbed 803 all on the plight of retaining Divis . If that’s true then time to stall Divis for a period so that they can focus on building income through production, not just barge charters that aren’t gustanteed and add little fundamental value.

Worst case, we’re going to have 2 or 3 days from FY accounts release to AGM so plenty of time to compile a list of questions based on the facts.

Somebody(s) just had a wobble at 671k and I suspect there could be more of this if they hang it out to FY accounts, I believe that’s very unlikely .

Everybody should’ve had ‘THEIR VOTE COUNTS’ notification, that’s if you own stock and not spread betting. It’s all a futile exercise as PIs can’t affect anything being in the minority and everything gets voted through. Important to pull together a list of questions but I think too early to do that as we need an update so that we can ask the right questions.

Disappointing that divi Dec is dragging but they still have time but each day of delay puts the pressure on. Got to be news this or next week, otherwise we’re waiting for FY accounts , let’s hope that’s not the case.

CC,

I say it how I see it regardless of my position whereas you certainly don’t but most peeps can see that and the newbies, well, they’ll get the picture . Looking forward to hearing about the Kazakh Klondike and the bi lateral drill, multiple layers and billions of barrels. All the info that’s allegedly in the public domain if you know where to look for it but nobody can find it…lol Humility, integrity and principle, look them up.

AGM, waiting for confirmation on hip operation which may be planned for month end so do t know. Want to go and put sone faces to the nicknames and buy you a beer or 3 ;) Won’t get much from the Casper duo, Clive & Edmund, they won’t be drawn and will stick to the script unfortunately but important to put them on the spot and ask your questions. Maybe invite them to the pub and try and get them piddled, maybe bring the pasties ;)

Mike, are you kidding me…lol. Blowing with the wind….lol, that made me larf. You must have swam or dived with a few sharks in your time, there’s a few big ones on this pond !!

Moving on, as stated, we know nothing and radio silence isn’t helping but they can’t delay news forever. A mixed bag for me but as far as we know ie factual published info, that’s all I can go on. They were in a strong position financially as of 31/1 as they stated that the 802 production brought production in excess of 3000bopd so it’s fair to assume that MJF/SY were still producing 2200-2400bopd. If that’s the case and they are still selling oil to the parties communicated and achieving the same prices, probably better if trading themselves, then they are making considerable profit. Add in CE cash for next year and on the face of it, they’re in good financial health.

What could’ve changed ?

- 141/142 water cut issues and horizontal drilling strategy affected the MJF output ? C 18m P2 so if that’s correct, then MJF is the cash cow for sone time to come

- Oil prices reduced or selling more to less profitable domestic market ?

- Inflationary pressure forcing costs up ?

- increased taxes as a result of inflationary pressure ?

I can cite a list of positives and negatives but one thing I do know is that they’re in a far stronger position now than when they were in 2020 when they were close to going pop or being diluted off the charts. The Kazakhs are not selling as far as I know and the trading is largely by PIs. The WCP want the Divis as they’re taking £10m pa so if they have to drop that then that’s not the end of the world providing they haven’t messed up MJF/SY and 802.

The opportunity is still there, if they drop the divi, any cash flow pressure will subside and they can accelerate the drilling, that’s the core objective, pay the divi when they’re in the financial position to do so. If they pull or stall the divi, it demonstrates that they were premature with timing and another faux pas by the leadership, nothing new there.

Just got to wait it out for news but after 16 years of seeing it all, anything is possible with Casper.

Tick, tock.

How peoples opinions change with the wind…..lol

Nobody knows a scooby as to true position but worst case we find out month end but I suspect much sooner, hopefully this week. Nice to see some buying today, TA traders, bottom feeders and who knows hopefully well timed.

Re divis, the signs of possible cash flow pressure were evident from last divi update and subbing 803 likely to be more evidence rather than resource challenges. Who knows and hey, they still have time to declare and pay this month, the big boys are the main benefactors so they obviously want it to continue. Can be several reasons for cash flow pressure ie production

Reduction, increased costs, reduced sales prices, increased taxes etc but we’ll know soon enough.

All speculation and as far as we know, all could still be rosy in the garden. Up early again tomorrow…lol ;)

Mr C,

Have to agree, that’s needle in the haystack stuff.

So much material news should’ve been released, the big question why not and will be answered next couple of weeks probably. Divi Dec ? direly next week if they want to pay in June or to advise they’re pulling it.

All very tedious at a time where H1 should’ve been filled with regular news flow.

Casper are a funny ole bunch. They play their own game with little consideration to the PIs, not much has changed there. This radio silence is not the first time they’ve done it and short term sp movements are irrelevant to the WCP, they’re just withdrawing the cash whilst slowly trying to move operations forward.

The AGM announcement is regulatory and by moving the FY accounts publication to the end of June, I suspect that we’ll now get a full operational update before then, worst case the divi update next week but I believe we’ll get both.

As always, patience required, lots of it !!

To add, the MMS have taken it down today and are robbing PIs on the spread. Looking at published trades, more buys than sells and the bid is very strong at 700k so they want your stock, don’t let them have it ! Spread at 6.09-6.2 so true mid is higher.

Casper HQ don’t give a stuff re PIs and they’ll release news when it suits them. They’re not selling and the only price action as always is from PIs and the volume is tiny.

Orf to Amalfi coast tomorrow at the crack of dawn and Sod’s Law will apply as Casper will inevitably release news whilst I’m in the air….lol

Patience is a virtue and anxiety reduces the bank balance .

Do love a bit of Monty P.

Un,

Seen it all before, over and over, rinse and repeat but as always, only one person responsible for investment decisions :) Mixed news ? yep, I’m expecting a box of Bertie Bott’s and hoping there’s not too many of the undesirable ones.

Et al,

No news is ? it’s exactly that, nobody knows what’s going on. Why the delay ? Clive not as connected to Almaty as he should be ? Accountants dragging their feet ? waiting for last minute news ? yada, yada.

All I know is that the fundamentals are strong or should I say, we’re strong. If the financials and production are as previously communicated ie the prod volume, oil prices received, oil buyer split 50:50 between MR/Domestic etc. If these variables are the same or similar then Casper are in good financial health and the CE cash is another welcome financial boost come next year.

Operations are ongoing or as far as can be seen aided by Bico info and depends on your viewpoint but 803 tender surely is positive.

Anything sinister going on or events outside our control ? nobody knows and the delays only ad to investor frustration and anxiety. We can only access the info available to us and on paper there’s nothing currently online that would cause concern.

Boring as it is, we are in the pitting shed waiting for mr M&S to make a visit.

Tick, tock.

Probably find out he’s been the P45 !

I believe they’re dragging the divi Dec

out as it’s been all about the cash. Getting boring now but looks like tomorrow but hey, this lot have never stuck to a timeline !!

Tt

Https://m.made-in-china.com/hot-china-products/Oil_Pumping_Unit_Price.html

Fits the price range.

Https://www.bicotender.ru/tender243466548.html#tenderHeader

Modifying the rig could mean that they’ll end up buying it rather than continuing to charter it. I suppose it depends on the first well.

News tomorrow anyone or 30th which gives time to declare divi and pay on 30/6 latest ?

that they’ll continue to use it or maybe buy it even if the first well is a duffer