Member Info for SmartyP1

No idea on spread betting but current market is stronger on the ask as can buy 400k and sell 100k max. The volume is low, price only up 1.4% on 650k buys and 50k sells so obviously somebody is selling a few in background, probably published later.

All very boring when you’re left in the dark for over 3 months, hopefully the comprehensive update will be worth reading.

Looks very possible that Casper release news on their IPO anniversary on Monday. First deep success on IPO anniversary, that would be great to see. An introduction from our Clive with great news on first commercial deep followed by positive news on all fronts. They made the decision to wait til FY accounts and summarise all activity. It’s possible but I suspect that’s the view dining the rose tinted specs. Anything possible but I’m looking forward to dissecting the FY accounts but hopefully the headlines will be positive, both financial and on the drilling front.

Shallow prod - 2300, no progress as water cut issues persist , a little depletion in prod. 155 bring tested

802 - still stabilising

Other deeps - no progress

Block 8 and rig purchase agreed

Divi - declared but maybe at a reduced yield

They have farmed our 803 and moved divi to quarterly which suggests cash flow pressure. They also deferred activity on shallows in Q4 last year and yet again I suspect the strategy is to conserve cash to maintain divi payments. The question to answer is why sub 803 if producing 3k bopd+ . Maybe prices have dropped, taxes have increased or less volume to MRs, all affecting CAB.

Drilling an unplanned 803, hopefully that is a positive and the excitement re deep potential continues. Barge cash probably not received til 24 probably so they have to manage costs and they’ll have another £5m to pay at year end so maybe CE cash landing sooner ?

Bargain at this level ? Providing MJF not depleting and operational schedule unchanged then ABSOLUTELY. Market still weak and I suspect we see selling v buying pre news which will mean more bargains for those with cash. Hopefully hot it all wrong and peeps buy the news but the current market suggests not.

Somm,

The last RNS was ambiguous as to completion and perforation but I’m hoping that they’ve drilled on to the original TD before perforating and achieving higher rates. The commentary is so ambiguous ie flowing open hole, stabilising before perforation and possible higher rates, could be side-track only or drilling on but we’ll find out shortly.

Et al,

What can we expect on the financial front for H2 and estimates for numbers ytd 23 ? The crude prices were still high averaging in the $90+ range but Casper not benefitting as a result of Urals discount and Kaz tax on gross crude, not discounted price. So H2 will see gross prices at $38 for MR business and $28 for domestic so gross revenue for H2 should be c $14m based on a 50:50 Domestic/MR split and 2400bopd Profitability will be high as costs for MR and Domestic sales are minimal and hopefully the additional $5-10 is making a difference in H1 adding c $3m. You can see that cash flow maybe a little tight when committing to $1.2m pm and managing a busy drilling schedule. Could be the reason why they’re subbing out 803.

Caspian is in a far stronger position financially than it’s ever been. You’ve only got to look at last few years inc Covid challenges to see the difference now. The CE cash is a huge boost especially if first explo well is successful as that will lead to more charters or barge sale. The big miss is the drilling progress and I’m hoping that my scepticism is misplaced. They have the money to continue operations without fundraisers and it would be good to understand when $15m barge cash is to be paid. Continued div payments are essential so hopefully no hiccups there.

H2 should be healthy from a financial perspective, probably less so in H1 if reduced crude prices have affected dom/MR receipts. There are so many variables on the risk front but we know what they are, hopefully no negative surprises come next update. The multi-bagger opportunity is still here but we only get there with deep success so let’s hope that we see it kick off with 802 !

Joe, that just about sums it up. The current market is weak and the cynic in me knows that somebody(s) need a bullish market to offload stock pre news. Waiting an extra few months, maybe they’ve got a bucketload of good news to share :) !

Not negativity, your view on proceedings with the limited info at our disposal. Allegedly it’s in the bag from what I’m reading so if that’s the case, we’ll soon have the foundation to build in and to ramp it off the boards ;)

To add. I think they’re tight on cash and been conserving it to continue paying the quarterly divi. £3m is a chunk of cash and hence the reason to sub out 803 maybe. Also could be the reason for delays in reporting on the shallows as they’re conserving cash ?

Paul,

I’ve posted my view on ADVFN and I wear the cynical hat as I’ve seen the P&D exercise sooooo many times especially so close to news. I don’t particularly care what traders are doing, peeps are responsible for their own trading decisions, I just hate all the bull shoite !

Always good to see good research and this is definitely one of the better BBS but there’s only one person responsible for investment decisions and DYOR is the rule not listening to others.

Nobody knows where we are operationally, there is no news, it’s all speculation and hey, that’s what makes a market. Excessive ramping pre news and a big seller on Friday and the same today as the ask is far stronger than the bud, where’s the stock coming from ?

As posted on ADVFN, I can’t get away from the fact that they’re subbing 803 and no news for 3 months on 802, no flaring, flow test etc. For me, if 802 was commercial, we’d know about it regardless of drilling on and other theories. They had 100m to go over 3 months ago and if stabilised then we’d know about it imo. Also 803 spud ? yep could be seen as god news as why drill it especially when the rig was off to A5 to complete sidetrack. If 802 was successful, the Casper crew drilled it and delivered it, why the hell would you sub it out ? It’s the priority well, the first deep delivered by a Casper crew aided by Bajer Hughes. You would move the rig off to A5, you’d carry on with 803 with own crew. Could be a cash flow issue and they have to complete A7 before explo licence expires. It’s an odd one but maybe it is a cash flow issue and paying in 6 months is a better option for them currently versus it being a labour issue.

As you say, 141/142/145, no news and obviously been having more fun and games, we have to hope they’ve not buggered them up but no news doesn’t fill you with confidence.

The market is still weak after all the pumping, what does that intimate ! We have pumping pre news whilst the dumping goes on simultaneously. Cynic ? yep and history has shown you need to be.

Mixed bag coming with poor operational update buried in all the financial news which will be positive. Hoping to be wrong as we all want the same outcome here or most of us and that’s rickets not more Carverspeak.

TT

Https://glossary.slb.com/en/terms/t/turnkey

Trawling the web, all I can find is that all responsibility sits with the 3rd party. Still questioning why they’ve done this if 802 was successful. A successful crew with a commercial result, surely you’d do the same again and not move rig to A5. The only licence commitment is for A7 and they have rig for that so I can’t see that it’s a resource problem, probably cash flow or last throw of the dice maybe. Will be good to understand when they’re getting the barge cash as they’ve stated that it will be used on biz development as opposed to special divi.

Also no RNS, no regulatory applications for flaring or flow test so I’m not convinced. Also with all the ramping pre news, always suspicious and the weakness in the market on Friday as the big seller(s) was in the background and still is today. Market is 200k sell max and 550k buy, we still have the seller or is that the pumper(s). Cynical, sceptical ? 16 years of disappointment does make you a little wiser.

A mixed bag coming our way I suspect BUT if it’s rockets, I’ll be ramping as will all investors if they’ve actually commercialised a deep. Hopefully I’m way off base and no Carverspeak translation needed.

Https://astanatimes.com/2023/05/news-digest-foreign-media-on-kazakhstans-international-diplomacy-kazakh-ports-kazakh-bulgarian-cooperation-increase-in-kazakh-oil-exports-and-more/

Good to see KStan pushing ahead with plans to develop other export routes away from Russia. Will be interesting to see how Turkish elections play out and whether Erdogan holds on. Opposition coalition has desires to build closer ties with west and will be good for KStan.

Been looking back at FY results over last 10 years pre COVID, I am a saddo on a Sunday evening ! Mean publication date is 22/5 and interestingly, Caspian, formerly Roxi went to market with IPO on 22/5/07. It would be ironic if news was released then and did include a successful 802 result. Not long to find out either way.

Tick, tock.

Or maybe not, need a techie to sort….lol

Time for Caspian to deliver the CCUPS storyline. We all want to see it but history has taught us to be a tad sceptical. A deep success will send the sp rocketing and that will only be the star as that’s when the real rampathon begins as newbies and hot money make their entrance. It will get very silly as the real opportunity is not known until the long overdue CPR is sorted. Will become the most hyped share on AIM and there will be a huge disconnect between true value and sp, that’s in a positive way and great for longs.

Enough excitement for one week. Beautiful day to take the ragtop for a spin. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday, we’re getting news w/c 22/5 latest :)

Https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/01122014/roxi-petroleum-plc-operational-update/

Helps if you copy and paste properly. 43API light oil at A5 but that’s not consistent across all discoveries to date. I believe other reservoirs were 38api and 43API that would question connectivity but hey, this is Casper and technical data is not the best !

Also, Sinopec drilled 802 at cost of $11m so the 803 tender would probably fit from a labour perspective or the additional operational apparatus, pipes etc.

Drilling 803 when it wasn’t on the timetable ? Turnkey with a 3rd party ? I can’t get away from the fact that if 802 had stabilised and commercial then why no RNS after 3 months, it’s pretty material news !! Yep, I’ve read the explanation on no flaring licence, no flow test announcement, both regulatory items. Good, indifferent or ugly, we get to find out very soon :)

The rampAthon is in full flow so let’s hope for u Pete th occasion, that this time it’s actually good news and as JCB states, no dumpathon.

Trawling through the archives, much that mos of it I remember ! the link below details A5 oil API and he planned 801 spud on a turnkey basis by Sinopec.

Feet firml planted waiting for the rockets and no Caverspeak !!

https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/01122014/roxi-petroleum-plc-operational-update/

Https://www.bicotender.ru/tender/search/?keywordsStrict=0&smartSearch=0®ionPreference=0&keywords=BNG+Ltd&submit=1

It’s an interesting one. $6m for this turnkey operation and I believe the Sinopec well was c$11m but with staged payments as I remember . So why 50% off ? Casper have enough deep rigs to drill 803 and to complete licence commitments with A7 so it must be labour and they want a specialist crew to deliver it but as we know, it’s all about flowing it. If it’s labour only which would make sense, maybe bonuses for delivering a commercial outcome.

803 last throw of the dice without committing to additional cost so they can get on with A7, A5 sidetrack and shallows ? If they delivered 802successfully with own crew and rig then surely they’d drill 803 themselves, continue with A7 and leave others ? 802 success would be a huge milestone and they wouldn’t need another operator in ? Surely they’d use the successful team to do the same on 803 ? Clive stated that the well cost is c$5m using their own rig/people but by subbing it, they pay the same cost ? Also, if 802 was commercial after perforation, surely that would have been communicated.

Guess we get the answer mid next week or the following week latest.

Good post Kheldar.

They used Sinopec to drill 801 on a turnkey basis but alas we know the issues there. A drill to TD without problems until they tried to flow it, same old story.

I can’t believe they’d be drilling 803 if they’d not seen anything promising but it doesn’t mean a flowing 802 or a failure. To me it means short of cash to be deployed to ensure the continuation of divis. I’m leaning towards success but with their own crew and rigs, why involve anyone else ?

As you say, they don’t need to drill 803 from a licences perspective so why drill it. As you’ve stated, maybe one more throw of the device ?

Wolfi,

Looks like a rollover to me. Yep, the sp should’ve moved further today based on trades but if they were sells, then I’d have expected to see a down day. Market was 600k max buy, 325k sell most of the day. Tested at the close and true market at those volumes were 6.02-6.24

Looking at the trading facts, somebody must be selling a chunk as the sp should’ve jumped this am. 2.85m total, 665k of that is a BednIsa so true volume c 2.185m, of those 1.85m are buys and 375k sells. Also his is weaker than ask at max sell 325k and I can buy 600k. Make of that what you will but obviously somebody is feeding the market !

if only,

yep, our clive was brought into ast to sort the fundraising but as wolfi says, a long time after jeremy eng had ****ed it up !! remember anagni-1 ahhhhhhh, another a5 situation, loads of oil, oh sorry, our mistake !!

enough of the bad memories, not just for pis but for institutions who came a cropper on many of the aim disasters.

Diver, you had to mention Nur 1 !!!! I met all the board going back to Kapelle, Udsen ! sends shivers down my spine. Kapelle another dodgy Aussie up there with Leningas. You can throw in LGO/AST as hyped penny dhare disasters snd there are many more. As I’m thinking back, Timan, Afren, Equater, UKOG, loads of misery for punters who were sucked in.

Let’s hope our Casper is one that defies the odds ;)