Member Info for SmartyP1

Another tick up coming as bid strengthens. Small volume but MMS late reported the 110k trades and still messing around, very boring. Probably see FOMO buying as you won’t want be out for the weekend rhetoric kicks in ;)

Will tick up shortly and probably a repeat of yesterdays action with support at this level.

Here we go again. Bid as weak as a poor cuppa. Going to be a red start and we’ll see whether we get interest into close.

I dumped L2 5 years ago as I certainly didn’t see the value. Watching the bid/ask, suddenly changing when false bids are there and never get executed. All a game imho.

Trades all over the gaff again and MMS certainly having fun recently. Late reported biggies at the end of play and we’re all in the dark !

I can’t buy a sausage

Planned activity H1
141/142/145/155 possibly others at SY
802/A5/A7/possible 801/A6

We’re all invested to see the results on all above. Unless something has changed, all of the above is ongoing or expected and as far as I know, all the upside we are investing in, is still in play :)

CC,

You are a sad sod. Look forward to catching up at the next AGM ;)

Had to be a sell based on the buy/sell ratio on the day, if it was a buy, we wouldn’t have retraced rapidly.

Loads of volume over last 2 days and then zippo, strange isn’t it. I suspect our Casper hot money has left for another party. Breakout, ramp to death, wtong news, rusk of sp retrace, wobble, timber, run for the exits. That’s what I believe has happened not as a result of poor news. To have zippo trades next day ? just makes me feel that it was a coordinated effort and all the hot money in followed by all out and move on.

We know that pre the breakout the volume was low and trading was conducted by a small number of PIs. Along came the Divis, sone better news and in cane the multiple transactions and the rise to 8.6p. Healthy volume days most days, a run at double figures thwarted at mid 8s, retrace, go again, retrace, news and not the right flavour, timber. Maybe I’m wrong but with no trades today, says it all.

As stated, I’m focussing on what I know and as far is o can see, little has changed from when we were 3p or lower in November. The good news, barge contract win and very healthy revenue for 24, I’d like to understand when we get paid. 802 flowed oil but no material impact until its commercial. Divis being paid but moved to quarterly. Prod, we assume still at 2400bopd ish taking into consideration the 3000bopd + from BNG. Oil receipts, the same ? Do wgats really changed from 3p to 8.6p ?

All I know is that Casper is in a far stronger position financially and we’ll see 22 financials in May to confirm how much they’ve moved on. Profitable. No debt and more profitable in 24 as a result of CE cash, who knows could be $30m on a 2 well outcome and probably more to come in 25. All the assets are in play as far as I can see and we have 6 or 7 wells to dril in H2, I suppose sone of that depends on 802 and A5 outcomes. Divis continuing and payments not changing, obviously magnitude dependant on drilling /CE charter success. Not going under, geopolitical tensions eased, no pipeline closures and for me, the risks are diminishing and all I see is upside, loads of it.

We pay our money, we take our chance and for me it is looking better by the day and WHI endorse the fact they are starting to build shareholder value. No guarantees re success, especially on the deeps and who knows maybe the selling was as a result of 802 leak or fear of bad news but if that was the case, surely the selling would be continuing in volume today ?

I reinvested my Divi cash Tues evening and yesterday, something I wasn’t planning to do but as always, each to their own.

Kheldar,

Definitely a sell but could’ve been a forced sell or a nice profit take for somebody. Could’ve been any of the big boys or Kazakhs lightening the load , very unlikely but it obviously contributed to yesterdays sell off. The trading didn’t make sense as there obviously was a big sell(s) to be disclosed but MMS are playing games, look at todays trades and reporting times ! Buys as sells, sells as buys, all over the place.

The biggie sell set off the timber moment and nothing to do with 802, who knows.

CC,

Certainly not bitter, just hate BS and you’re the best by some way.

Et al,
Money to be made and whatever one’s strategy is, only one person pressing the sell/buy button and I’ve pressed the latter a few times today.

Tick, tock.

We’ve had some down here but quickly dissipating but not many neon Lycra types on the roads …lol

Casper was pumped and this BB was on fire ramping it to death. The usual suspects who you couldn’t trust as far as you could kick them were/are doing the usual, ramping when selling and the opposite when buying BUT peeps get suckered in, that’s their issue I’m afraid.

I’m focussed on what I know and as stated I saw the demise into the 5ps on an 802 failure but would see it bounce as a result of the active work schedule planned. Certain peeps mentioning no names ;), ramping the arze out of this and stating that 802 wasn’t a binary event and so wouldn’t crash. never see 5p…lol, as always spouting fluent BS.

Unless there was a leak, this has crashed 30% on divi and CE news ? What’s happen to initiate the timber moment ? was it the lack of drilling news ? did the TA boys see the retrace and dumping frenzy, was leverage being squeezed as a result of other big popular AIM losers like PANR ? Who knows but as I see it, nuffink has leaked and the sp is 30% down . A funny ole game but done serious money to be made.

Morning Mike,

Ideal day for 4wd fun ;)

The sp got ahead of itself without news and I believe peeps got the jitters following yesterdays update. The CE news was good but maybe some believed we’d see 23 charter too ? The divi from monthly to quarterly added to worries as maybe they can’t afford to pay and the recent slippage on Feb payment to end March was possibly an indicator to that ?

Add in no 802 and other drilling project silence, not even a mention, added to the anxiety, another Casper own goal imo regardless of drilling situation.

As you say, it was a bad day on the markets and stocks like PANR getting battered do have a roll on effect especially on leverage players.

I like you, added yesterday pm and I will be looking for a few more if there’s further weakness. We know zippo re 802 and yesterday saw sone leverage squeezed out and if bad news we’ll see the retrace into the 5ps before bouncing again imho.

Notes changed as far as I’m concerned and the $15m net proceeds from CE are most welcome and more if second well added. That’s more cash than annual turnover historically ! As long as shallows continue to deliver and MR/domestic prices hold up or increase, they’re profitable, throwing off cash and can fund their active drilling schedule this year.

As always, this is a risky ole game and Casper one of the riskiest but that’s diminishing and they are slowly building shareholder value. Got to be in it to win it.

Yep Wolfi. We’re still in the potting shed waiting for the next feed.

Sp closed at 6.7p mid not 7p so it’ll gap down early doors, MMS playing games. 13.5% down ? All I learnt was that we’re getting $15m net from one CE drill and possibly another if the first well successful. Also that Divis have moved to quarterly. So 13.5% down on the absence of 802 news and loads of panic selling and leverage being squeezed. PANR selling hadn’t helped I guess and many forced to sell.

Only time will tell on 802 but a fair chunk of the downside is in after today but can’t be long before we find out. Going to be another trading opp whatever your view is .

Kheldar, Yep, I posted his response earlier.

Phil,

It would be around $15 million for each well, although at the moment we are only certain to drill one well.

The second well depends on the first being successful.

Clive

Kheldar,

Yep, that’s my take and yep I’ve asked the question too.

From Spangle

WHI note restates the RNS, then concludes "As exploration and drilling pick up with rising oil prices, we anticipate increased scope to hire out the Caspian Explorer drilling rig. We remind investors that Caspian Sunrise acquired the rig counter cyclically at the bottom of the commodity price cycle. The annual dividend will remain unchanged at 0.5328p – the current dividend yield is 6.9%. We believe Caspian Sunrise is on a solid trajectory of shareholder value creation.

Mr C,
Sadly inevitable as news anxiety follows on from divi anxiety…..lol.

Company is profitable, debt free and if the shallow program alone continues to grow, the cash will continue to flow as will the Divis. As stated, I believe the downside from a terminal will probably be into the 5/6p range but will bounce on the realisation that there’s an active operational schedule planned. If radio silence continues, we’ll probably see sp weakness as peeps get impatient.

No more deep failures, time to deliver as we’re all getting bored of the same ole story and I for one don’t want to decipher another episode of Carverspeak.

Un, the natives are getting restless …lol. That was always going to happen if radio silence continued. Yep. As you say, the Caspian investor knows what patience is all about and always expect the unexpected or should that be the expected.

Casper isn’t a leaky ship so everybody is in the potting shed with the rest of the mushrooms.

PANR news was painful for many PIs this am and I suspect that has caused some forced selling on many stocks, especially for those that were leveraged.

The wait goes on and hoping that we don’t get to read another episode of Carverspeak.

Tick, tock.

Just sitting back and letting you boys and girls get on with the rampathon as I’m slipping down the leaderboard ;). I’m not counting the chickens but if we get positive news on 802, even a fraction of Somm’s multi lateral 400m interval, 4K bopd and 1bn+ barrels…lol , this will soar into double figures and A5 levels will be surpassed as the hype will be off the scale. Not going to talk about the downside on a poor outcome but it’ll bounce as there’s an active operational schedule.

Re millionaires, let’s hope Casper delivers the first deep after years of disappointment. Sone may achieve that goal shortly but if the news on 802 is really positive, there could be many punters that achieve that milestone. Already 4 bagged from the lows and as stated many times, this could become a 50 bagger from the bottom. Enough ramping, time to walk the walk ;)