Member Info for SmartyP1

3AB has been written off and written down on the financials. A sweetheart deal for our KO and a chunk of shares for a worthless licence. KO took a bath on the barge deal so that goes sone way to levelling up the playing field.

EntreP,

This share has been ramped off the boards and the number of inane posts or as Mr C has commented factional posts that are allegedly research when they are utter nonsense with the only intention to mislead. As with releasing RNSs, do you think they have had material news to release at this time or earlier ?

With regards trading, I’ve been adding in volume this week and for those that are interested, you can’t buy a sausage but can sell 400k. MMS have managed the decline and maybe it’s time for a reversal ;)

Sadly the sellers have it and we’re heading for a decline of 40% from the high, that’s unbelievable but the pumpers have left the scene ready to make their next entrance….lol. The sp retrace would suggest poor news on all fronts but the volume has been very low so won’t take much to kick this back into an uptrend.

Our Shin would be on the ‘at risk’ register if his team aided by Baker Hughes, have messed up again. Allegedly we’re awaiting results on -;

141/2 horizontals &145 workover
155 update after spud ?
802 ?
A7 have they bought rig and recommenced drilling ?
Have they completed DD on Block 8 ready for next year ?

All of this should be included in Q1 update so let’s see what’s cooking. For all we know, all could be successful and it’s rockets time and surely there’s the likelihood of some positive news from this collection. The financials have improved with the addition of MR sales and the CE cash. If this goes into the 5s, you’ll see reloading by those who sold as the rinse and repeat cycle returns.

Tick, tock.

£60m wiped off m/cap in a few weeks as radio silence continues. People are fearing the worst, talk of cleaning, impurities, coil tubing etc but no news to substantiate that.

New investors have joined the party as a result of the divi and hot money landed as break out materialised when the TA indicators encouraged buying. Today, the sp is at a very weak 6.07p mid and I suspect that leverage has been squeezed and sense more to come if the MMs push it down but there will be buying as another trading/top up opp for some. Personally, I’m fed up of another trading opp and want to see the defining news that moves this back into double figures and as we know they have enough assets to create that shareholder value with more to come with Block 8 etc.

I’m focussing on the fundamentals as I know them and providing that oil at MJF hasn’t disappeared or the oil prices have crashed, this remains a bargain. News has to be next week as they have material info to release, good bad or indifferent so let’s see it. There is the silver lining for those who are in BednIsa mode next week but who knows, it may be rockets not damp squibs but no more Carverspeak please.

Don’t know what’s happening with the trading. A shake yesterday afternoon on a lowish volume day c1.5m and evenly matched buys/sells. Bid strong this morning at 500k and now 300k. Looks like no news this week ? and probably a quarterly update next. Was expecting a busy period of news flow in Q1 but Casper gone back to old ways, let’s hope the wait is worth it.

Crude trying to get back to $80 but we’re not benefitting unless it’s affecting the markets Casper sell too.

Patience

Somm,

Could be anything. Radio silence from HQ and we’re all guessing. If it’s poor news, get it out new pre BednIsa season, if it’s great news, delay it til mid month ;)

If they have had issues with 802, hopefully it’s not terminal and they’ve got back up with the shallows. 802 has flowed oil which is better than not finding or flowing so hopefully the worst case scenario is more blockages NOT uncommercial when perforated.

Can’t hold back news forever and thankfully April Fools is on a Saturday !

https://astanatimes.com/2023/03/kazakhstan-on-its-way-to-oil-supply-diversification/

Good article that details the challenge that Kaz face with Russia. The good news, it’ll take years to do this but the plans are in place and they will reduce the dependence on Russian routes this decade. Chevron &Partners are looking to increase volumes by 12m barrels and that’s through the CPC so you can see that the challenge to move away from Russia is going to be very difficult. As stated, they have to do it and reduce Putin’s control via economic sanctions .

Meanwhile the wait goes on for news. Must’ve had problems to delay news on 3 or 4 wells so let’s hope that we don’t see more excuses. Fed up of sitting on he plane and hopefully it’s ‘fasten seatbelts’ not ‘we are missing a passenger and more delays !!!’

Yep BM and as Diver has commented, hopefully their drilling experience and skill levels are improving as time goes by. Block 8 has produced oil so hopefully they can complete the work commitments and deliver commercial volumes.

If they can price up a few BNG deeps and do the same at Block 8, our Casper won’t stay independent for long. They’ll need to spend on FDP and Al the infrastructure costs so maybe a partnership, maybe JV or a trade sale. Kuat’s not getting any younger and I’m sure there’s room for a few more toys in the portfolio.

History has shown us that getting the deeps to work is not easy and Casper have sunk more than $100m to date without and return from the deeps. No guarantees that they’ll flow one commercially but we have a few more attempts before they throw in the towel. 802 has taken ages so we get to know the outcome shortly. If successful, then they’ll continue with NY block I guess and then complete A7 and sidetrack A5. If they get A5 to flow then they’ll go back to A6 for remedial work to continue appraisal of the real size of Airshagyl.

All ifs and all of us should be prepared for more Carverspeak but I’m sincerely hoping that there’s no need as they’ve finally cracked one !!

Morning Diver,

Good article and yep, we’re sitting on oil and plenty of it above and below the salt layer. Block 8 will be another opportunity to build production -;

Block 8

We are pleased to announce the intention to acquire Block 8, a producing Contract Area located approximately 160 km from BNG, for a maximum consideration of $60 million, payable in cash from the future production from Block 8 at the rate of $5 per barrel of oil produced.

Background

The Block 8 Contract Area is 2,823 sq km with three identified structures and production from two existing wells. The Block 8 Contract Area is owned by a member of the Oraziman family, which holds approximately 48.4% of the shares in Caspian Sunrise, and as such it would constitute a related party transaction.

Caspian Sunrise has acquired an option to acquire the UAE registered holding company of EPC Munai LLP, which is the Kazakh registered holder of the licence for the Block 8 Contract Area, conditional upon inter alia satisfactory due diligence, including a review by an independent expert; the renewal of the existing licence; Independent Director and Nominated Adviser approval; and the consents of the regulatory authorities in Kazakhstan the UAE and the UK.

The Company and the Oraziman family have entered into a loan agreement under which the Company has agreed to advance cash and equipment up to $5 million to EPC LLP to complete the existing work programme commitments under the existing licence. The loan will bear interest at the rate of 7% and in the event the acquisition of Block 8 does not complete would be repayable by the Oraziman family from future dividend payments.

The Block 8 licence was previously owned by LG International the Korean conglomerate, who in 2006 started to acquire 3D seismic data over approximately 456 sq km. In recent years two deep wells have been drilled to depths of 4,203 meters and 3,449 maters respectively, from which oil has flowed at rates of up to 800 bopd.

Current production from Block 8 is approximately 110 bopd, with oil transported to the same treatment and pumping station used by BNG.

The acquisition of Block 8 would bring a second flagship asset into the Caspian Sunrise Group together with BNG with both having the ability to transform the value of the Group in the event of successful deep drilling.

There are other good articles published from the website eg the non Russian transport links and the first trial tanker from Kashagan to Baku. They know they have to reduce dependency on Russia and they are progressing their master plan. Will take time but bodes well for all oil producers and another risk reducing as time elapses :)

https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/kazakhstan-discovers-new-massive-oil-gas-field-2021-3-1-30/

Maybe Casper has one of these lined up for us ;). We know that we are sitting on loads of oil and so many successful fields around the BNG acreage, when will it be our time to join the club. More opportunities to come with Block 8 and I’m looking forward to seeing the eventual commercialisation of the deep opportunities.

Disappointing to see the sp retrace since but Casper not helping by keeping schtum. So much to update on or there should be.

Divis paid this am and some are reinvesting today probably and the bid strengthening slowly. A recap of news we should see -;

Shallow
141/142/145 remedial work /155 spud update
SY - first horizontal timings ?

Deeps
802 update
A7 - should’ve purchased the G70 rig and resumed drilling from 2150m
802 completed an rig off to start A5
Update on Ablock 8 after DD work

Other ?

Surely we some positives ? and qtrly update next week or w/c 3/4.

As always , tick, tock :)

TT.

Yep, good old GPX and EEN. Actually made some money on Emerald, got to have a winner now and then.

Plenty of risks with our Casper but a far better situation from a financial perspective and hopefully you get to buy those diamonds :)

Et al,

You can see from the Kaz biz news , various articles showing the development of other oil routes to avoid dependence on CPC and Putin games.

https://astanatimes.com/category/business/

Interest rates tomorrow, up or flat, I suspect 0.25% and the States the same on Thursday. Maybe they could go more and keep the pressure on inflation management but I think they’ll play safe. Hopefully there’s no more wobbles in the banking sector.

We’re all waiting patiently for news If it’s poor, there’s a silver lining for those who want to go into BednIsa mode in April. Also divi cash landing on Thursday so some will convert to more stock and if markets stay stable, could see a run on Casper into news next week. Anyone’s guess.

HMHG,

That made me larf. CS has been on the rack since the last banking crash and dogged by scandal and I think the following sums them up

‘Credit Suisse had a “lackadaisical attitude towards risk” and “failed at multiple junctures to take decisive and urgent action,” the report concluded. The bank responded with a series of measures to fix the shortcomings and vowed to use the incident as a “turning point for its overall approach to risk management’

Unfortunately not regulated enough and hey presto. On the other hand our Casper is as safe as houses ;)

Having a read to catch up on Kaz elections. Marred by a really low turnout so maybe the removal of autocracy is going to take time !!

Investeg,

If you read the history on all deeps or have read it, it makes depressing reading. It’s been said many times, ‘obfuscation’ has been the MO when publishing RNSs. PIs are minority players in this game with c 300m, maybe a bit higher as free float. We are the ones that dictate the price but the owners aren’t affected by dlit, not until it’s exit or bonus time. Kuat clan are pulling out £500k pm and providing Divis continue, they’re pulling in $7m pa and the recent debt for equity swap would be recovered and they continue to pay themselves ad infinitum or until oil runs out.

They’ve also got form for not disclosing material news eg the last FD Mr S didn’t disclose his selling before disappearing from the company.

Somebody mention ‘cleaning’ , that is a word we don’t want to hear as that implies issues and we’ll be getting a load of excuses next RNS ie blockages, special acid, hot wax, extra Barite mud, duff cement, stuck pipes etc.

Nobody knows what the hell is going on but hopefully there’s lots going on as per the last ceiling comms on Dec and Jan.

Everybody watching the banking crisis and looking for the volatility to settle. Dow up 400pts as I type but I suspect a few ups and downs to come and will be interesting to see what happens with next interest rate call. Fed taking about blanket guarantees for the weaker US regional banks. Liquidity bring guaranteed to stave off contagion but next step credit squeeze and economic growth.

Casper need to hold their news til markets settle. To state they can’t do that is nonsense as they’re in control of the news.

Hi Wolfi,

Tokayev has played a very good game since ousting Nazarbayev and navigating a course through the riots and keeping Putin at bay by engaging with the rest of the world. Geopolitical and domestic tensions, he’s having to walk the tightrope. Unfortunately it’ll take sone time before they can freed themselves of Russian ties as their largest revenue is still oil and will take ages to develop other routes. They have to develop other revenues from other business sectors whilst adding new industry eg wind power etc. Only short term answers in that front would be the demise of Putin and no guarantees that fixes the problem

Tokayev knows that involving China and the West is the only way to fend off Russian threats and a return to the dark shadow of Soviet rule. As with Ukraine, they have had independence since 1991 and they don’t want to lose that but he knows he has to clean up the autocratic structure or he social issues will continue. Poverty is rife and a lot of his policies are aimed at reducing the corruption and elite control un Nazarbayev clan.

Back to Casper. The banking wobbled have obviously affected equities and we’ll soon find out whether contagion had been stopped or whether more Robbie’s to come. I suspect it’ll be choppy and volatile trading continues until investors see that there are no systemic failures in the pipe, I don’t believe do and the central banks. Govts have learned a lot since 2008 or you’d like to think so !

Sone selling today but minor, sone bottom feeding and the next chapter of Carverspeak is getting ever nearer.

Tick, tock.

As we all know, volatility = opportunity for those that are solvent whereas leverage gets squeezed creating that opp. Central Banks and Govts have to create liquidity and we’ve already seen Warren poking his nose in look for opportunities.

Could be more banks to go if dominoes fall and the Govt/CBS will decide which will be supported or not. Hopefully it’s storm in a teacup time.

Meanwhile Crude taking a beating but our Casper not exporting but there will probably be sone reduction to MR/Domestic prices but we’ll soon see.

Big cojones time for those with spare cash. Sone nice divi payers out there. BARC a buy at sun 130 this am with 5%divi, put them away and see how they look come year end.

Casper need to hold their news until this little typhoo (n) blows out :)