Member Info for SmartyP1

Or over 12% for those buying earlier this week!! Let’s hope you’re right re divis continuing :)

WHI View: Caspian Sunrise acquired the Caspian Explorer at the bottom of the market in 2020 for $3.7M. The sale of half of the rig for $22.5M therefore represents a very significant cash gain. The gain is all the more compelling because i) the cash proceeds can be used to accelerate further growth in the BNG licence area of Kazakhstan ii) the sale speaks to the specific shallow water advantages of the rig for the Caspian Sea and the strong outlook for the rig, in which the company still holds a 50% interest (as a reminder the rig is already scheduled to drill a well in the summer of 2024).

Obviously got a seller(s) in the background as 1m+ buys with little selling and minimal movement. Any stock hangover will need to be worked through, hopefully soon .

Current income generated by 2000 bopd is too tight as was 2400 probably. When they embarked on the divi journey, they could see that 142 was or could be a good producer and other shallows to follow with capacity management at 5k bopd. Maybe slowing operations has conserved cash and they can make a gesture come FY accounts or when CE deal concludes.

Obviously many investors/leveraged players have exited due to lack of operational progress and divi dilemma but who knows, maybe Wolfi’s view is accurate and further progressed on 802, msybe 142 too ? Very difficult to make those important decisions with zippo info but after being here from the beginning, this is a time to buy. That’s not advice, that’s my view and have done exactly that but obviously many have different views hence the current market.

Many newbies have not seen how volatile this can be, neither have LTHs but won’t take much to propel this north with gusto and we dril have the assets to fulfil that objective :)

Sorry BM, my comment east to Kheldar. Onwards and upwards.

BM,

The Ff is probably 300m shares and that is the market, like it or not, been the same forever. The big boys rarely trade and their transactions are generally conducted off market. Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately, sone choose to spread bet as opposed to own and on any poor news, capitulation follows whereas if you own, more investors stay with it so less volatility. Won’t change the market and this stock will be volatile in a thin market

Buyers and sellers, winners and losers. This is oversold as stated so it’s a buying opp for those willing to take the risk. Personally I’m fed up with lack of operational progress which would break us out of this range and put a solid foundation under the stock. It’s a buy down here whether you’re buying to sell or to hold.

Tick, tock

They’re getting a cash injection of $30m over the next year and the charter rental will continue as why would anyone buy in. The CE deal is only conditional but if finalised shortly, it makes a huge difference to Casper’s ability to fund/accelerate operations. I’m very keen to understand the true position on all assets -;

Shallows

Deeps

Block 8

Don’t understand the sell off but I’d rather be investing at this level than at 1.75p when they were on the edge of insolvency. I don’t get it and barring any shenanigans, this in my book is a raving buy if CE deal concludes.

They’ve stopped trading or should I say buying ! Bid moved to 700k so they’re after more stock.

Going to tick up shortly, hopefully this is the bottom.

Agreed, you’ll never find out BUT you can ask the questions at the AGM ie Are any of the existing Casper directors 0art of Seychelles Co or anybody in the WCP but it won’t change anything.

SP is weak and unlike yesterday shake, peeps aren’t buying as bottom feeders obviously believe it goes lower or the MMS know there’s more capitulation needed.

CC,

I don’t bother to regurgitate your posting history as it’s laughable and you talk about trading and hindsight, that is a cracker…..lol

Peeps don’t want to read our bickering, so no more from moi, more important things to do :)

Tony,

Yep but who are the Directors, that was my point .

Looks like selling continues so maybe more weakness and opportunities for bottom feeders with appetite for risk.

Fickle Fecker,

Yep, I did communicate with Clive but took it no further, neither did anyone else. They are company directors and need to act as such but hey, this is AIM and the wild east casino.

Same as going to the AGM, important that investors make their point and be heard, minority or not !

Well said OD. A very profitable outcome for the white elephant. I was a doubter, especially after the 3AB deal but happy to see the deal and the cash. We’re never going to find the identity of the purchasers but always worth asking the question at the AGM. Could be the Al Marris who joined the party for the Divis and maybe this deal is another way of squaring the circle if Divis were delayed, who knows. We can all look at the conspiracy angle but what’s the point, the deal will be done and great news for investors. It wasn’t that long ago that they conditionally agreedthe BOCO funding deal with considerable dilution yet this deal has cost the company KO share allocation only. Mustn’t forget that KO has also exercised the debt for share swap do he’s obviously ‘all in’ this game.

Providing no shenanigans we’re not aware of, the penny will drop here and peeps will say the words’ why didn’t I add’ but hey, there’s no guarantees in this game.

Adrianz,

Just fyi. I didn’t communicate with Nomad or any other organisation and know of several investors who certainly wanted to but didn’t as far as I’m aware. I’m only aware of one person writing and I don’t know the gentlemen personally but he openly disclosed on the boards that he’d written. If the poor comms continued then it’s every investors right to contact the governing bodies, that’s their prerogative. Whether it does any good, that depends on the noise level, class action etc but hopefully we never have to go there !!

Moving on, sone serious money to be made :)

Current divi yield is almost 12% at current pricing but are we going to get one ? The CE deal brings in the cash to facilitate continued dividends, maybe a ‘special’ divi but yet again, that depends on conditional becoming final. I believe we get payment but timing unknown but I’m happy to accumulate knowing that they will probably resume in the near term.

Operationally, it’s confusing as we have no info. Been working on 142 for sone time and now crew going back to 802 ? I assume that they’ve completed the work on 142 or are they doing another sidetrack as per BICO ? Are we going to get positive news on 142 in the near term, the best producing well at c1400 bopd.

Wasn’t long ago, ie during Covid, that Casper were only getting c $12 for their oil and production was c1300 bopd and they still survived. They are in a completely different situation today. Production much higher, net prices achieved are higher, have the CE cash (hopefully) and ongoing charter rental.

The sp has retraced but I believe it’s way oversold and we see a recovery very shortly. Bottom feeders topping up, re-entering or entering the game at this level. Could it go lower ? It can but I believe we see see strong buying as FY accounts and H1 guidance is published.

TT

TT,

It’s your money and nowt wrong with binning your holding here if you’ve had enough of Carver comms, can’t blame you.

If you’ve been in this a long time, you know the trading cycles. At 8.6p, the sensible move was to sell down, especially as news dried up . Not many sold at the top as it was taken down into the 7s very quickly on little volume. Personally I didn’t see it breaking 5p on a poor news outcome but they excelled themselves this time.

4.6p and £80m m/cap wiped off the stock. What’s the main change ? 400bopd gone awol and an unexpected barge deal. No idea as to true situation on 142, Block 8, new rig and Divis. The divi is the big news to turn the tide here and maybe some clarity on operations in little over a week, that will help too.

As far as I can see, none of the assets have disappeared and the upside is still intact BUT they certainly haven’t covered themselves with glory with progress and reporting it. I can understand why most of the divi hunters have sold and Casper have scored an own goal with losing those investors. I’m hoping that they propose a special divi from CE cash, that would make amends for a shocking H1 performance.

Un,

I asked several questions at the last AGM specifically re cash flow and ability to pay Divis but the answer was a resounding yes.

By my sums, profitability should be better in H1 if the variables are as they were as last communicated. A net number of c$32 v discounted export at sun $30. Add in the additional $5-10 per barrel and they should be more profitable. Obviously revenue will be down but let’s see what the true situation is in a couple of weeks.

Who’s definitely going to the AGM ?

I don’t get the leverage plays but hey, each to their own. Spread betting doesn’t attract the Divis and currently at c10%, and a depressed sp so the opportunity is possibly a win, win ie capital appreciation and regular income.

Buying at this level, I see it as a huge opp but understandably others don’t. I’m hoping that our WCP are still wanting Divis and we’ll soon find out whether that’s the plan.

Investors being squeezed as a result of poor comms. Our Casper made the statement that they wanted new investors and the divi process was a means of doing that. Not to communicate effectively since pulling monthly Divis has created a wobble and hence the sell off. Great for those who are solvent and an appetite for risk but this shake was coming but the stick will get picked up and hopefully divi resumption is stil on the cards for those invested.

K,

FY accounts are important and we should get a comprehensive update as to operations on the ground inc, price of oil, volumes, split between MR

, domestic and CAB position.

Un,

Urals is currently trading at $53 but they were being taxed at gross Brent prices. The net prices being achieved as a result we’re in the high $20 region whereas they ‘WERE’ getting $32 for the MR/Donestic split plus the additional $5-10 if they are doing the trading. I took the last update as being positive re oil prices achieved but we’ll find out soon enough

I’m filling my boots as this is very silly.