Member Info for SmartyP1

Apologies, I suspect the former not the latter. Back to the G&T. Cmon Casper, let’s push through 5p tomorrow .

Nothing wrong with bottom feeders and yep, I did have a few rude not to moments :)

Somm,

Careful, you’ll hurt yourself carrying that ego around. New nickname for you, KIA , I’ll let you work that out ;)

It bounced hard today on lowish volume, great to see and hopefully more of the same tomorrow as FOMO probably kicks in.

Come FY accounts, we’ll get the divi update and I’m still hoping for a surprise declaration or worst case a slight delay. I’m hoping they reward the loyal investors and not waive the last 3 months but not long to find out. FY 22 accounts will be healthy and will be good to lift the cover in H1 operational detail and the CAB as of now.

Another strong sp push tomorrow or another retest of 4p, I suspect the latter.

And 4.58 as the last trade, provably Somm panicking to get back in ;)

Not a high volume day but as stated, the sp can move considerably in a thin market.

Good luck to the bottom feeders and it looks likely that this northward trend will continue to news and maybe exacerbated by those who’ve sold out and good old FOMO kicking in.

Kheldar,

Chancers…..lol, let’s hope those chancers are right with their timing g and make a shedload of cash whether trading or buying to hold longer term.

I don’t believe we’ll see the $15 from Isatay if CE deal concluded. Appreciate the Isatay deal was pre 50% sale but I believe that the $15m is likely to be shared, have asked the question.

The 4.2 buy was a little hasty at 4.2 when 4.07p achievable in smaller chunks. Current market 4.02-4.07 and last trade at 4.07 was a buy not sell. Can sell 700k do bid healthy, just need to see sone more buyers :). Hopefully the 4p shoulders are the support, need strong shoulders to be invested here !

Nice to see buying 870k v 130k sells but bid still weak at 300k. I suspect we have an overhang, either from yesterday or more sellers averaging down or getting out.

Much that it looks unlikely we get divi, we will get one if CE deal concludes so we’re likely to see a buying spree pre likely declaration. 13.5% return at current price but yet again, that's only the case if they pay every quarter.

I’m hoping for a surprise divi declaration, even if it’s reduced with the commitment to top it up when CE cash hits, rewarding the loyal holders.

PIs are the only ones trading this and those selling now and looking to buy in cheaper ? yep possibly could add a few more to the portfolio by averaging down bit if this was the strategy, surely should’ve done that at far higher prices, a big risk to do it now as downside is limited.

We haven’t seen ‘capitulation’ ie huge sell volume and that would only happen on a ‘news disaster’ outcome but I don’t see that happening. If peeps have sold higher up with a view to averaging down then there should be loads of cash sitting on the side looking for a reentry point. Those peeps obviously had a crystal ball. The other selling is obviously forced as leverage getting squeezed but as stated, volumes have not been huge.

Can’t believe it’s below 4p with c 5/6 days til news and we’ve seen a 50%+ drop on minimal news. Crazy stuff and imo, will take very little to move this north at pace.

Some serious money to be made from this entry point but we’re all in the dark re the true situation on the ground. I’m focussing on the fundamentals and unless there’s been sone drastic changes, the prod is 2k bopd as of late, was c 2400, oil sales ratios are at 50:50 but I suspect more being sold to MRs, we’re getting a minimum of $15m net from CR, obviously more with Stepping Stones deal and all assets are in play. Soon find out what’s changed materially and whether adding more or entering here was a good idea.

Yep, more chunky sells than buys and sadly retrace continues. No idea about TA but the chart looks self fulfilling Head and shoulders and we’re back on the 4p shoulders, I’m sure a TA player could give their view . Bid was weak this am so obviously they had the chunky sells in the pipe ready to go and some bottom feeding continuing.

55% decline ? You’d be expected to see horrendous news to justify that outcome ! Lost 3-400 bopd from shallows , 802 ongoing and no divi news. On the positive side, the CE deal but yet to be concluded and drilling 803 ? The company have forced this retrace by continuing with shoite comms but they’re not the losers, it’s mostly PIs that are probably leveraged and the divi investors who have/are jumping ship.

Been looking back at the volume over last few weeks and been very low, won’t take much positive news flow to turn this slide around.

Miserable for sone forced to sell whereas a great buying opp for others.

Somm, you need to reread your posting history !! actually all the posts over last 3 months !

Sanctions, Covid, riots, our Caspian has Navigated through sone pretty rough waters snd now the sp is still receding but without company ending threats in play. The bid is weak and looks like this could visit the low 4s or even lower but I believe we see strong buying as this is so oversold. MMS probably aware of leverage opportunity as the bid is weak but the volume has dried up as of late. 50% decline from recent high, who would e called that !

True mid price 4.35 and buys at 4.39. They really are taking this down on tiny volume and will bounce on the same. Looks like there could be sone really bargains if this trend continues.

FD,

Can’t disagree, they are the hokey kokey squad with every excuse in the book. Time for them to change and hopefully sone direct questions are posed at AGM. Need to see the FY results so we can ask the pertinent questions. Hopefully they have sone positive info to release before the day :)

Looks like PI trading has fizzled out, both buying and selling. Probably 5 trading news pre news and hopefully we get the clarity needed on all fronts.

I believe they were way to premature with the divi plan and they should have sorted the main priority first ie building production. I believe we see that in the accounts but the lack of operational success has obviously compounded the cash flow pressure hence the sale of 50% of CE.

Will we see buying or selling pre news or are peeps in the Kheldar holding pattern ;)

We’ll get a comprehensive update on all areas of the business.

Time span of an oil company and development, not wishing to be rude but that’s nonsense. It’s all an out success with the drill it and after 16 years, Casper’s performance has been shocking. They could’ve delivered A5 in 2014 and then continued to appraise the other A block wells and exploit the sea of oil that they believe is there. The timeline depends on success and this company could’ve been a billion pound company and all the infrastructure requirements would’ve come from those successes. 10 years on and we have moved the shallows forward but even that has proved difficult for Casper. Success = income= profit = acceleration of projects and field development = sale of business to a multi National possibly. If they don’t start turning things around, oil and gas will be on the decline and they’d have missed their slot. Success is key and that is the key ingredient re timescales and as stated, after 16 years, the lack of operational success is the reason we’re still waiting !!

Huge opportunity as it was in 2007, will they ever deliver it

Edit, 10 or so years. Another one for the to do list, new glasses !

Aggregate production for 2021 was 533,857 barrels (2020: 545,667) . H1 22 414,048, averaging c 2275 bopd and will be higher for the second half so 22 will look very healthy compared to previous years, probably 900k for the year and a 45% increase yoy, the best performance since inception. Oil prices were very high in H2 so profitability should be best ever and hat includes the 3AB impairment.

2023 H1 ? Hopefully prod volume in line with 2022 at c 400k and will be interesting to see prices received and the domestic/ mini refinery split.

If you look back over the last 20 or so years, production levels were at an average c 450k and oil prices far lower. No CE barge cash and far less progress on the deeps but to date still no cigar. If I compare the sp v fundamentals, this is the strongest Casper has been financially since incorporation. Paying a divi @ c 12%, I say paying but maybe we wait a little longer but we will get paid, I’m hoping they declare next week and only miss will be a month if paid in July.

The CE deal needs to be concluded, payment received and sale shares registered in the UAE, hopefully in the very near term. This ensures divi paid and that they are funded to continue operations with any dilutive fundraisers.

Good vale at 4.6p ? it’s a yes from me :), must be creeping up the ramp list ;)

Looks like they’re going to wait as long as poss before publishing FY accounts, wouldn’t be surprised if it’s on the 29th giving PIs less time to digest info,

Looks like there will be little operational progress if 142 being sidetracked but don’t know how that’s achievable if why’re playing hokey Kokey with the crew, used to be the rigs ! Hoping to be surprised but worst case, we need clarity on everything plus a divi dec :)

Badge,

Can’t argue with that but like most majority owned AIM Cos, you either lump it, challenge them or move on.

Let’s hope that their H1 summary and future guidance is more detailed than the last RNS !!

From last divi update in March. It’s pretty clear as to expected plans and maybe declaration with FY accounts and payment in July so a slippage of a month and maybe CE cash makes that call a lot easier ! If so, you could see buying between now and declaration as peeps get back involved, who knows ? All I know is that this is oversold and all the assets are still on play although progress is painfully slow or many could argue, going backwards ! Not without risk but I’m hoping for a chunky quarterly dividend and an active Q3/H2 helped by CE cash ;)

‘Dividends

The Company has now declared four monthly dividends each of £1 million, demonstrating the Company's clear commitment to make and maintain dividend payments.

We are now moving to quarterly rather than monthly dividend payments. This change is related to the practical considerations of making dividend declarations and payments and is not intended as a signal of a change in the overall dividend pay-out rate. It will also bring us closer into line with other dividend paying companies and allow the better management of significant receipts and payments, which do not always follow a regular monthly pattern.

The next dividend announcement therefore is expected to be made with the publication of the 2022 audited accounts in May 2023, with payment expected in June 2023. For the avoidance of doubt the dividend declared on 20 February 2023 remains due to be paid on 23 March 2023.

Contd

Shallow Well 142 has been a top-performing well and it has consistently produced at strong rates following workovers; therefore, the sidetrack drilling of a horizontal lateral well from Well 142, we believe, has potential to contribute meaningfully to Caspian Sunrise’s production.

For reference, Caspian Sunrise’s oil production in Kazakhstan is supporting a dividend payment of 0.5329 pence per share per annum – yielding a generous 9.7% yield.

We have a positive outlook for oil prices for 2H 2023 and believe that Caspian Sunrise and its shareholders are better placed than ever to gain from a strong oil price environment.

The unexpected conditional sale of the Caspian Explorer for $22.5M is a materially positive and unexpected outcome, which, we expect, will have a commensurately positive market impact.

Let’s hope that positive market impact starts to materialise next week !