Member Info for sittingduck11

So bizarre.

Not gonna lie, the oil company charts and the oil futures charts look bearish (short term anyway). Really looks like oil is going lower.

It just doesn't make sense. The fundamentals are screaming higher prices. Very odd.

Food for thought.

The ceasefire is a farce. It will never hold and is being used to play for time by the US while the US move more troops and equipment into the region.

The USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier strike group is currently on route to the ME.

The US will likely conduct a ground invasion of Iran.

UREA aka fertiliser prices have continued to rise.

Once it becomes apparent to the market what the US is about to do, the oil price will move significantly higher.

The world will probably experience food and fuel shortages. Significantly in Asia and Africa.

Harbour short/medium term price targets 360p/440p

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I hope i'm wrong.

Lets pray for the innocent people caught up in this madness.

There is no going back for the US now.

Looks like their actual goal is the destruction of all ME oil production. Forcing the largest US debt holders to continue buying US debt due to over reliance on US for energy and food. US and Russia will be the winners of this war in the end.

Thats after the collapse of the western economy. If you hold tech....get out while you still can.

Always having 7 days worth of food probably isn't a bad idea either.

$140 oil will be here by May IMO.

Harbour is up around 58% since January lows. Energy has had a strong move up across the board.

Makes sense for a period of consolidation and or correction. The charts (for what they are worth) indicate a new bull market/uptrend in energy. Pullbacks are common but the trend is up.

Remember all the 150p talk? 400p is now more probable.

The US is probably going to try anything to get a grip on the oil price, so likely there'll be some volatility ahead of us.

Just do it already!

It'll happen with a thunderclap.

Speaking to clients over the last few weeks, the main consensus, from my perspective anyway, is that most people are expecting this to pass. None are piling into oil and gas stocks, many are punting oil with leverage but few if any are building positions in energy stocks.

Which is another indicator that this has only just started.

The war sucks. And we could all do with seeing the end of it.

But the reality is that owning energy is an insurance play, in case these lunatic/ satanic whatever you want to call them billionaires starting pulling stunts like this.

And at $100 brent, Harbour is printing money. Morning noon and night.

After the stampeed of responses i decided to sack off waiting for the ISA date and opened a x 2 leverage spreadbet to add to my growing pile of HBR shares.

Wallop.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAer-Mqe7tQ&t=352s

Agree. I'm in the same boat.

And when i think about how risky that is i remember what Andrew Carnegie said -

"The way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."

Anyone thinking of topping up on HBR on the 6th?

I'm heavily exposed to HBR but am struggling to look past HBRs value tbh...

Any ideas or input on ISA allowance allocation would be welcome.

Thought yesterdays plunge protection team were brought in to plug the bleeding out in bonds.

Keep an eye on it.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?mod=mw_quote_switch&countrycode=bx

...whatever it is exactly Trump is selling.

Despite WTI down over 10%.

Exxon, Chevron, XLE, XOP, OXY, are all up or flat on the day.

I'm not sure the forward curve means much tbh.

Energy was the best performing sector up until the war started, it wasn't the catalyst. There were breakouts across the entire sector... Exxon, Chevron, XLE, XOP etc etc etc, all time highs in companies at $60 oil. Money has been moving into energy for months before this war started. Berkshire Hathaway increased it's position in Chevron in Q4 making energy its 3rd largest holding.

All the fundamentals and technicals make it very difficult to look past the energy sector. If there is a peace deal then of course there will be a short term reaction. But personally I see a significant shift in the entire sector. This has exposed countries vulnerabilities to an energy shock which is far more likely to cause an overreaction to make sure it doesn't leave them as exposed in future. And my opinion on the future oil price hasn't changed at all, we will go through $200 and no one will quite believe it.

And RE the war, for Iran it's surely a case of one bittern twice shy, if they trust the US here for a third time then they deserve everything they get.

If you needed any indication Iran is winning, i think this is it...

Trump is under HUGE pressure, if you were Iran you might take this as the US is floundering.

Halted all hostilities for 5 days apparently. Not sure where Israel stand

It's coming Jeffrey..

US said they want unconditional surrender. Which is never going to happen. There is no off ramp for Iran other than driving the US out of the Middle East.

This war will destroy the US empire.

I don't think people realise just how strong Iran is (in a defensive capacity). To conquer that country, it will cost America everything.

There is almost zero chance that Iran will throw in the towel. For Iran, at this point this is about survival.