Member Info for sittingduck11

"You muppets I actually told you lot to sell also. Tomorrow this will open at £2 or less ……….."

"I am right always have been."

Wally.

'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.'

So y11-shx you've nothing to back up your previous statement...?

Averages (approx)

Last 100 years 16‑20 barrels/oz

Last 50 years 15‑17 barrels/oz

Last 10 years 22 barrels/oz,

CURRENT RATIO - 57

When oil eventually reverts back to the mean the price would need to rise to (thats assuming that Gold doesn't move, which obviously won't happen) -

30 barrel ratio - $123

20 barrel ratio - $185

Gold is no doubt due a correction, but the fundamentals on gold are very strong, global currency debasement, minimal retail participation etc, so as has been the case throughout history, these ratios will correct, they may even overshoot.

10 barrel ratio - $370

Food for thought.

"I sold at £2.40 but today will be a good time to sell if you haven’t already."

Why is that? I mean that would be ideal for reinvesting my dividends and bringing my average down, but i'm still curious why you are so sure?

Yes well shame on me for allocating even a shade of credibility to SWS. I have usually found that side of things, shareholders, sell buys etc to be somewhat accurate on there. But yes Bots I should have known better tbh.

Simply Wall Street

I took a screen shot in April this year and according to SWS he had just over 78m shares 4.63%. Now he has around 75m shares 4.5%. Unless none of its accurate, there is that possibility.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-hbr/harbour-energy-shares/information

Haven't checked for quite a while but as far as I can see he has chopped his holding by around 3m shares. Now holds 4.5% approx 75m shares. He was around 4.63% / 78m shares, i believe.

Trump will do what he's told. Just like Biden, Obama, Bush, etc etc ....

RE my previous post on this - "Something to add on WTI and Brent charts. I have been trying to pretend its not there and that these gaps are not 100%, but the reality is gaps on monthly charts always fill relatively quickly and there are unfilled gap on both monthlys at 62.62 brent and 60.40 WTI May/June. I'm confident these will now fill which means a bit more short term pain."

Much closer to filling these now, needs to close lower on the monthly and there is still some time to go in September. So my guess is we will be visiting the $50s range, albeit briefly. The lower we go, the stronger the reaction to the upside. I know we've said it before, (although in the past, in hope rather than expectation) but for the New Harbour, (considering how the share price has been reacting to a falling oil price) it'll be a glorious buying opportunity.

Pay day on the 24th if you don't want to put your hand in your pocket.

Fair point Rookie.

That actually bodes well for us, the fact that when the winds change and sentiment swings back to oil and gas a significant re rating will likely take place. The point I was making that since the WD deal, Harbour shares have acted in line with their peers, potentially even better. But yeah, definitely still massively undervalued compared to them also. Fill your boots while you can.

Listen to the webcast here: https://cc.webcasts.com/barc002/090225b_js/?entity=13_KVOTXCO

Interesting interview. And there we have it, from the horses mouth.... A direct comparison between us and Apache from the CEO.

So next time you are getting frustrated with HBR and think it's the only O&G company doing x or y (or not doing it as the case may be)... Compare to Apache.

Drop from the highs of 2024 :

HBR -32%

APA -37%

Rally since 25 lows :

HBR +52%

APA +67%

Dividend :

HBR 8.6%

APA 4.4%

Debt :

HBR $3.8bn

APA $5.5bn

Listen to the webcast here: https://cc.webcasts.com/barc002/090225b_js/?entity=13_KVOTXCO

Nice one.

Oil down over 2%

HBR up over 1%

The new HBR can't be bullied like days gone by. I still expect another sharp selloff in oil (hopefully i'm wrong), but HBR is now much more resilient and robust enough to weather it.

Pay day on the 24th, lets hope for a good price to buy more.

RE the HBR chart, long term downtrend is still in play, but looks like a strong reversal and potential bottom in May, a close above 245p - 250p should confirm that, personally i think its the best the Harbour chart has ever looked, Bull flags, reverse H&S, coupled with strong earnings and a quick recovery from ex div. So far so good.

RE Reform. I'm with DK on this one, i used to rate Farage, back around 2010 watching him tear up the European parliament, the reality is he's full of bs, it's all just the WWE but politics. If there was any chance he was going to do the right thing for the people, he wouldn't be there. Look at what he did to Rupert Lowe... Also... i read that with the German elections coming up, 4 ... yes 4! of the so called right wing party members up for election and expected to win have all miraculously died in the last 2 weeks.

So, my friends, we cannot rely on these fraudsters as they are all bought and paid for. We will need to find our own way.

Long term bond yields are exploding -

Japan - https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkjp-30y?countrycode=bx

UK - https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkgb-30y?countrycode=bx

Germany - https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-30y?countrycode=bx

Breakout in US 30 year is inevitable - https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd30y?countrycode=bx

Starting to look very serious.

HL do that for me, albeit on a set day each month, not on the div payment day (the 24th), which is annoying. But no dramas, this ship has only just left the port.

I've a feeling there will be a final sting in the tail with oil taking one last sharp leg down before beginning a long and significant uptrend, but who knows.

And thats not including divdends

I'm with you tiger. It's all good. With any luck shares stay depressed until i've reinvested my dividends on the 24th.

There is an element of impatience amongst this group.

Definitely a frustrating day, however, since the lows in April/May -

HBR is up 54%

BP up 32%

Shell up 21%

OXY up 38%

Tullow down 8%

Apache up 68%

In the long term, HBR is only going one way.

The short answer Morgan - Up.

Look at the charts on the oilies. Breakout on OXY, breakout on Apache, breakout on Talos, breakout on PBF. Harbour reverse head and shoulders target 270p region, BP chart turning. Obviously this can change quickly, but the correlation of charts playing out across the O&G companies is super positive.