Member Info for sittingduck11

Haha now now.

Back when you bought Premier Oil, you actually had something to cry about. Now you're holding a monster, you should be counting your blessings that you've managed to stumble upon a golden ticket and filling your boots. Bringing down that dirty PMO average price. But surprise surprise, you haven't even noticed.

You're not cut out for this game boys.

Peter Lynch "There's always something to worry about, but success in the stock market depends on your stomach, not the brain."

And some of you really don't have the stomach for it. I don't blame you, it's a brutal game we're in, but tbf you should know that by now. Come back when Harbours at a fiver. Whenever that might be. In the meantime go and buy Palantir or XRP, they've gone up 100s of percent, much more your sort of thing. Buy high sell low.

What an awesome share this is - cash rich, chunky dividend, 19 years reserves and all at a fire sale price. Lets hope it falls a bit more.

Well it is irrelevant isn't it...

Oil and gas is getting hammered, so the share price for ANY mid or small cap will be getting pummelled. What is relevant in this scenario is the strength and health of the business, that's all that matters here. Expecting £5 a share or a strong rallying share price in an environment of falling oil and gas prices is not only totally illogical, it's bizarre. You're not going to sell while the WHOLE sector is getting spanked, so stop whining about the share price that isn't even plummeting, it's holding steady. And what's really weird is when people start running on like Harbour is the only oil and gas company underperforming?! Seriously, what is that about? Almost EVERY single mid and small cap oil and gas company in the world is performing in a similar or in many cases worse way than Harbour, yet people seem to be oblivious to that fact. That makes me think you must be trolling, because it ain't normal.

If you want to buy, then the share price is relevant, and you want it as low as possible. Failing that, who cares.

Rant over.

Yeah after reading that back, on reflection, did sound a bit muggy didn't it. Sorry about that.

I just mean that before the last update, we were exposed, massive debt, falling oil price. But after the most recent update, i've not lost a wink of sleep. We are sitting on a monster cash cow.

I take your point on oil, but none of our peers have done anything noteworthy either. HBR is def undervalued, but that IMO will only be realised when greedy piggy's come sniffing back into the oil sector, and that will take a bigger movement in oil, a massive set of results, or a takeover bid.

I might eat my words and you can say I told you so, but i believe this company will reward our patience.

Something completely unrelated - I bought £10K of Deutsch Bank in 22, got impatient sold at a modest profit in 23... look at the chart. I bought £25K of Fresnillo in 21/22, got impatient, sold in 24 at a loss, look at the chart.

Both had i thought compelling earnings stories but i lost my nerve, or patience. Harbours earnings are way way way more compelling than both of those. So i put way way way more into it. We're gonna do fine.

Why is there so much whinging.

The last update told us all Harbour is in a great position. The share price is irrelevant tbh. With Brent above $60, Harbour is in such a strong position. In the current scenario there is almost zero downside, and yet so many seem to be disregarding everything they know and having a cry that Harbour is not behaving in a way that is completely uncorrelated to every other O&G company. Perhaps you don't have the stomach for it.

Harbour isn't Harbour of 5 years ago, or 4 or 3 years ago. The recent update was a game changer, and sooner or later when oil has its run, whenever that might be, the market will recognise what we all know. But expecting the company to start exploding to the upside based on what? Sentiment drives markets, that's a fact, so there is no reason whatsoever for Harbour to go on a mega run without a significant catalyst (which i happen to think is coming), but in the meantime, investors have nothing to worry about.

Simple. BP and Shell are supermajors. Like Exxon, Chevron etc they have massive investment worldwide from pension funds etc.

It would be like comparing Apache to Exxon. From the 24 highs Exxon is down 11% while Apache is down 45%.

Similarly BP is down 25%, Shell down 9%, while Harbour is down 40%. Totally inline with a similar size producer in Apache.

It’s an absolute joke this share................ Why is it?

From the lows of 2025 :

BP up 22%

Tullow up 28%

Harbour up 36%

OXY up 30%

Apache up 45%

Talos up 48%

Weekly chart is coiling up. I would wager within the next 14 days we are going to see a break out.... Whether that's up or down is anyone's guess.

Technical analysis:

Bearish case - long term downtrend.

Bullish case - Reverse head and shoulders / bull flag.

I could be wrong. Lets see.

"I don't know about yours but my plants grow noticeably every week" Haha Touche

Well not in the winter they don't. Perhaps I should have said "crop". And we are in an oil winter.

Take a look at the Harbour daily chart, very similar to BP, Shell, Chevron, OXY charts. We're in the same boat as the big dogs, but we have the kicker of being much more undervalued... assets, cashflow.

The comment someone made the other day about BP etc buying BASF shares is a potential concern. That would be dirty.

Oils down, oil producers are down, sentiment is low, Harbour is trending up for now. What's the problem? We are in the same position as yesterday. Look at the facts, buy more.

Why get frustrated every day? Its like shouting at a plant because its not growing fast enough.

Madness Mike - A buyout now would be terrible for us, because it would be a low ball offer. We are not desperate, anything but, we are sitting pretty. If you need your funds, then yes a takeover might help you out, and anyone else who needs the funds, me included. But the odds are very high we'd regret it.

Harbour is undervalued based on the earnings, free cash flow, reserves etc. That is a fact. But the market might not reflect that for years, however in the mean time you will be paid large dividends, safe in the knowledge that they will keep on coming.

If you want to know how mad the markets are look no further than Palantir. PE ratio over 600. Market Cap of around $350bn, projected annual REVENUE in 2025..... $3.8bn.

Let that sink in.

But up it goes.

It has formed nicely on both the daily and the weekly. There are no certainties but forming on both timeframes bodes well.

The price target, should it play out, is around 268p ish. And would likely be quite a fast move.

But who knows.

Well there you go.

Another reason not to sell. Failing an offer we can't refuse.

Sit back, relax, max out your ISA (and maybe even your wife's) and let those dividends compound.

Yes i've hastily looked at $ FCF and £ Market cap.

Point is Harbour is valued much lower than all of them. Despite all those i mentioned also being undervalued in their own right (when looking at FCF).

I actually think the worst thing Harbour could do right now is sell out. If oil stays between $60 - $80 for the next 3 years, there's no reason why they couldn't be debt free once again, sitting on a mountain of assets.

At which point Harbour should bid for BP, that would be more their style.

They would cut the weeping wound from their respective companies to form a new standalone entity, 50/50 owned by BP and HBR.

That i could get behind!

Why would HBR merge with BP?

Why would Harbour sell to BP?

I think looking at a sales valuation based on $65, would be pointless. It would be a complete waste of Harbours time. They haven't done all this good work to sell out for a "reasonable" price at $65 brent. That makes 0 sense. Harbour don't need to sell. And so if i was negotiating for them i would make that clear from the off.

Even with oil in the gutter Harbour are currently valued at 3 x FCF.

BP who posted terrible results last year trading at 5-6 x FCF.

Shell around 4 x FCF.

Apache around 8 x FCF.

OXY over 7 x FCF.

Appreciate some of these don't have the debt levels of HBR however this debt is temporary. It will be gone if not substantially reduced in a few years at most. Like always.

Again, it makes 0 sense for Harbour to sell when they have at last obtained a position of significant strength. That is unless it's a reasonable offer taking all into account. £10 per share puts a valuation of around £15bn. Give or take. That would be a reasonable offer. That obviously won't happen. So i'd suggest BP keep on walking.

I really hope HBR don't roll over, if indeed any of this hypothetical role playing plays out.

Ah what the hell, given there's not much else going on... Can we speculate on what one might bid for Harbour? Knowing BP they would go in at 360p. When really, i think 1000p is where we should be at.

Harbour have no reason to sell and BP have every reason to buy.