Member Info for sittingduck11

155p would be a gift. I just hope that if that happens it's on the 6th April.

I doubt we'll get that lucky.

If i had to hazard a guess, i'd say the capitulation point in oil is very close, an aggressive fast sell off that wicks back.

I must admit, since gold and silvers epic run (and even copper), i am more confident than ever that oil will follow. For so many years i bought into the silver investment case and around 2023 i lost faith and paitence, man that has cost me a pretty penny!

Well, that is not going to happen twice, the investment case for oil is even more compelling, Trump and his cronies will do everythig they can to keep the price down and they are succeeding for now, but there is no stopping whats coming IMHO.

We've seen it with gold, silver and copper. Oil has convinced the world, this time its different... History tell us it never is, no matter how sweet the pitch.

I would welcome that. When the industry is struggling, thats the time to be aggressive IMHO.

Wishful thinking perhaps.

I remember a few weeks/months back we were discussing the best way to allocate the companys FCF, and the debate was between BBs or dividends or pay down debt, and I said, why not make another acquisition? Why not take advantage of the low oil price and the pressure being put on smaller oil and gas companies? Well turns out they were thinking the same thing (smug face).

HBR used to be in that brackett, but after the WD deal they are a long way from that now, they are a UK Apache, people who say we overpaid for WD, who cares?! The price we paid compared to the value we got is not even close, and its because of that value that HBR has now not for the first time, waited until the oil price is in the gutter and swooped. The UK is probably the worst place in the world to invest right now when it comes to O&G, which likely means it probably offers the best value. Sooner or later the government and the policies will change, and if HBR have spent some of those hard times (fully supported by the WD deal/assets) hoovering up struggling minors, thats great business in my book.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ7Nz81TgGQ&list=RDnQ7Nz81TgGQ&start_radio=1

Completely agree.

Something else to add. An observation I made recently. In the second half of 2019 into 20, Gold doubled (give or take), for no real reason. It's like it "somehow" knew what was coming. COVID came, Gold consolidated and then came a massive global stimulas surge and inflation. Well, it's done it again, in recent months, Gold has doubled, again for no real reason. Well my guess would be inflation is coming back and a very interesting chart (link below) gives some remarkable similarities between today and the 1970s.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/021325-Charts-updated_v2.pdf

Food for thought.

Either way, oil is going to move in a big way. And we are set.

I've had mixed success in short term trading, i think i was just doing it for the buzz tbh. But i think you hit the nail on the head, the stress and mental capacity it takes up, is just not a reasonable trade off imo. It is in the end impossible to fight off your instincts of greed and fear, even if you keep them at bay for 80% of the time.

On the other hand, buying Harbour when it's in the gutter and and watching my dividends pile up, is so much more rewarding.

But good luck either way, I hope you can make it work.

In 10 years at a couple of brokers, i've never come across one successful day trader. Don't get me wrong, some have success, but they all blow up in the end.

Swing traders, shorter term, say weeks and months, much higher success rate. But nothing beats buy low, buy lower and wait.

Just my 10 cents.

Well lets hope so hey. I'll be there to hoover them up.

Shhhhhhrrrrrrrrrrp!

Oil price/Oil shares divergence. The transfer is happening - we are close.

Look at the divergence between the oil companies shares and the oil price.

Oil is still in a downtrend albeit not gone below April lows. Oil companies bottomed in April. I'll hang my hat on it - THE BOTTOM IS IN for oil companies.

Sentiment is in the toilet. Oil gold ratio at 67! Madness. At $60 oil these companies are doing just fine. Shares moving higher across the board. The supermajor shares are climbing, the mid caps are climbing, funds are quietly moving into the sector. Gold is telling us inflation is coming. Gold is always the leader, oil always follows. This time isn't different.

We are so close IMO to a MASSIVE move in oil, wouldn't be surprised to see one last brief shakeout and then the uptrend, 3rd wave, whatever you want to call in will begin. Breaking out of a 16 year consolidation. An all time high in oil is the minimum target but much more likely will be IMHO between $160 - $250 per barrel. When we touch $100, shorts will swarm the sector, and then be crushed when the oil price rips higher. Wouldn't that be a sight..

Spare a thought for Y11-shx who sold out 100K+ shares at a 209p average for a small profit. Not sure we'll see that price again for a while, but who knows.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

Since April lows.

HBR up 57%

BP up 39%

Shell up 25%

Talos up 62%

Apache up 72%

Food for thought. Have a good one.

There are no guarantees of course. However, as someone who studies company earnings as (part of) his day job, and with the risk of looking like a total wally, I am supremely confident in this one. What is not to like? The WFT of course, but that has nothing to do with the business as such, it's a suppresser for now, and in fact was a good thing in that it might actually have encouraged management to get the WD deal done, overpaying slightly or not.

Ultimately we are betting on the oil price. If oil dies then so will Harbour.

But the growth trajectory this company is on (since 2021) is as far as I can tell unmatched in the sector. The assets, reserves, management, financials, acquisitions followed by debt reduction, shareholder returns and so on have been excellent.

RE PMO, i'm not sure, i never studied their earnings of business model.

The share price of Harbour is the only part of the story that hasn't performed. I personally expect that to change massively in the future.

But hey, I could be wrong.

Talos up 3%

US oilies on the up

All in all, debt has still been reduced since the the end of 2024.

To be honest i'm more comfortable with Harbour throwing a little bit of caution to the wind post WD deal. They are in a considerably stronger position to do so and have plenty of runway should markets turn dramatically south. We've seen how this company behaves regarding debt when oil prices rise, they attack it fast and hard.

The update in my opinion was not great not terrible, but overall, very happy with the direction of the company. Still way undervalued IMO, and when the oil price finally reverses, we're all going to be swimming in cash.

"Fingers crossed the market likes it ."

Indeed.

A good omen?

"Apocalyptically undervalued?, and what price if the WFT is significantly reduced from April 2026 ? What price then"

Thats the million dollar question isn't it.

Personally I feel the WFT is more psychological for investors now, it just doesn't have the same impact following the WD deal. Obviously it's still a significant drag, but no where near as severe.

My price target hasn't changed - 1000p. Obviously that hinges on a much higher oil price, but that will come, even if we have to go lower first.

But it also rests on the earnings, if we are at 450p and earnings fall off a cliff then i'll re evaluate. Likewise if we are at 1000p at FCF is at $3-4bn then i'd raise my target.

Oh go on then, i'll bite. I really have no idea, but here is my 10 cents.

I still expect oil to go lower, however the Harbour chart has been showing uncharacteristic strength for a good few weeks now. Surely something is cooking. We must remember this company is apocalyptically undervalued. So with that in mind, I'm going 300p +

Shell plc reported strong third quarter 2025 results, with Adjusted Earnings of $5.4 billion and $12.2 billion in cash flow from operations.

Even at 2881p a share, looks great value.

RE EIA reports info, much appreciated.

Elaborate chaps. I'm not on twitter.

Thought you're all in on Gamestop y11-shx?

So you advise to go all in on GameStop for a couple of weeks?