Member Info for sittingduck11

What i mean is, America print the Dollar. Everyone buys US debt and they build a massive military and basically say to everyone we'll protect you, just keep buying our debt and we'll keep printing.

Obviousy there is a lot more to it but thats the basic premise.

You've got it backwards Dan, America doesn't fund anyone. Everyone funds America.

Judging by previous bullruns in oil. It will play out over a good few years. It started in 2020.

But who knows.

Difficult to say exactly, so many determining factors. But in simple terms, my bet is on a much higher oil price and HBR is my vehicle to ride it.

I would exepect 1000p as a minimum, with the potential to go beyond 4000p.

I did a victory dance on the day the LLOG deal was annonced. And I really hope the share price stays low for a few months. Better yet, I hope it goes lower. But, 150p.... i don't see it.

Tbh when it finally does turn, none of you negative nellies will make much money anyway because you're all gagging to get out at 240p, 280p or 300p. Only the ones with the stomach will make life changing money, because we know what we have here.

I think the chances of 150p are so slim. There would have to be a total collapse in the oil price.

The HBR technicals (for what they're worth), do for the first time in years look bullish. The fundeamentals look super bullish. On top of that i'm not sure there are many sellers left. Why sell? Why short oil or energy stocks? Where is the value?

There is a clear divergence between oil price (trending down) and enery companies (trending up), indicating money is moving IN not OUT of the sector.

The odds on 250p are much higher based on the above. My 10 cents. Hope i'm right.

Same

Trust me chaps. We're in the clear.

Forgive my spelling errors. Fat fingers.

Why priortise debt repayment when the repayemnts are cheap? Not to mention the overall value of that debt is being inflated away?

When oil is on its backside, take on as much debt as reasonably possible in order to make acquisitions at low oil prices. Keeping a constant pace of buybacks has been a shrewd move, given the new shares created due to the acquisitions. When oil goes back to $85, thats when HBR will if they want to, pay back all the debt in good time. Its what they did before lets not forget.Persinally i think what HBR have done in the last 18 months has been nothing short of spectactular imho. Obviously i'm biased. I started investing in HBR in 2021 and right now i think we are past zero barrier now chaps, HBR is too big and too strong to fail now, there is no way we are not going to make a fortune now. The LLOG deal was it, we're there, don't sweat about the debt, now just put your feet up and wait. 

The most salient point here is that Harbour not only overpaid for Wintershall, but timed it poorly too just as the oil market surplus was worsening. Now it appears to be heading for a full-blown multiyear glut. Then what did Linda do? She gobbled up another company...

Make it make sense.

When has an O&G company not overpaid for an acquisition? That's the first question.

For WD we almost had to overpay because there were big boys bidding and at that point HBR was small fry, they had no choice if they wanted to land what was a transformational deal. And as for LLOG, for the sake of repeating it for the 100th time on here, SHELL was ready to pay the same, so it was the going rate.

Ask yourself this, how much would HBR and paid on both deals if oil was in the $100 range? Surely the best time to make these acquisitions is in a falling energy market, not a rising one. I think its reasonable to assume a company will almost always overpay (when buying good assets) at that current oil price, the seller is under no pressure to give it away, when the market turns and it always does, it should hopefully then look like great business. Thats my take anyway, I could be wrong.

The way i see it is HBR must grow, it must be bold, make acquisitions and seize the momentum it has created. And do it when oil and gas are floundering. 

Please do elaborate for the dunces amongst us

Sentiment on this share is still bounding about near an all time low. Oil is trending lower, sentiment there is also in the gutter. And yet HBR is holding around 200p. Could of course go lower, but to me it looks like sellers are running out of juice. The talk on here of people buying and selling in a 10p range (or something to that effect) to scrape a buck hoping to avoid the impending drop that we all have PTSD from, might be more signs that we are at the bottom?

IMHO this is the time to be buying, not selling, this risk to the downside is significantly lower than the potential upside.

I've added just before Christmas, and now i'll hold out for ISA season and hope we are still down here. Something tells me we won't be though.

GLA.

Unless it was all a ruse to get a higher price. Seems unlikely. Who knows..

Hang on. I think there some confusion here -

Harbour has over "19 years 2C and 2P reserves: 3.2 billion boe".

And as for LLOG, Shell were in advanced talks in early December with LLOG on the verge of completing the deal for quote "over $3bn", so unless the people at Shell are stupid enough to get ripped off by LLOG, then Harbour paid what one of the worlds largest oil and gas producers were also willing to pay.

"Ok no more research from AI on board, dyor as always"

Hi BP, please don't be put off by these miserable old sods. I for one have enjoyed reading your AI analysis, it was all useful opinion, whether human or otherwise. There are no conditions to posting (except the obvious), if peple don't like it they can disregard it or counter it.

Keep it coming. 

First things first, thanks to all you whiz-kid thundercats who intrinsically dissect the acquisitions, etc. It's as impressive as it is helpful to the rest of us simpletons.

There has been a lot of talk here about HBR overpaying on this deal and the WD deal etc. and the now significant debt pile. However, here's my 10 cents. 

1st. Overpaying on the deals.

Whenever oil and gas companies make acquisitions, don't they usually "overpay"? Did Chevron overpay for Hess? Did Exxon overpay for Pioneer? Probably.

I wonder how much HBR (and co) would have had to pay for WD, LLOG and Waldorf if oil was at $100? Maybe 2 or 3 times as much? I remember hearing some time ago that acquisitions in O&G tend to happen at the top or bottom of the O&G market cycle, rarely in the middle. For whatever that is worth. The point is we all believe oil is going higher in the long run—that's the bet—and we have chosen HBR because we want to take some risk, as opposed to just buying Shell, but we don't want to be reckless, buying Tullow. If oil goes back to $100, Harbour will be a long way from 200p.

2. Harbour having too much debt.

We have been here before, Chrysaor bought Premier Oil (potentially overpaying!) when oil was in the gutter and Harbour Energy was born. Oil was around $60 and Harbour had 8 years reserves and a nice new $3bn debt pile.

Back then 90% of production was in the UK (albeit with a more favorable tax rate) and HBR produced 200K bpd on a good day. And what happened? Oil went to $100 plus, HBR shares went to 540p and that debt disappeared.

So where are we now?

HBR now has a debt pile of $6bn (is it?) give or take. And once again oil is at $60.

But this time Harbour produces 450K barrels on a normal day. It has closer to 20 years of reserves, a foothold in the American Gulf, 30% of production is now in the UK, significant production/holdings in Norway, Mexico, Argentina, and now the US.

And if and when oil goes back to $100. That debt will be gone. And as for the share price, one would expect it to be significantly higher.  

Food for thought!

Have a good one. 

Were****************************

It's because of a desperate company that pays 78% on its UK production. Harbour probably needs 90usd per barrel of Brent oil to break even on its UK production. They have to sell some of the production in UK.

We're Shell desperate too Viking?

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/shell-advanced-talks-buy-llog-exploration-more-than-3-billion-sources-say-2025-12-09/

This is huge no?!

Harbour really are making moves. 2 acquisitions in 2 weeks! (announcements), and one from under the noses of Shell, who if we believe reports were about to pay around the same price. A foothold in the Americas, i'm shocked to be honest. In a good way.