Member Info for sittingduck11

HBR is up over 16% in August. Up over 50% since April. Last results were, as expected, fantastic. Let's hope the share price remains here so we can reinvest dividends sub 230p. And if it stays down here, i'll sling some more cash in the Mrs ISA and buy more, given I maxed mine when HBR went sub 200p, a price i'd be surprised if we see again.

Turns out my intel on the grape vine from the oil and gas CEO was quite accurate.

Something to add on WTI and Brent charts. I have been trying to pretend its not there and that these gaps are not 100%, but the reality is gaps on monthly charts always fill relatively quickly and there are unfilled gap on both monthlys at 62.62 brent and 60.40 WTI May/June. I'm confident these will now fill which means a bit more short term pain.

Also - i heard on the grape vine from someone party to an oil company CEO that exploration is becoming a priority and reserves are actually very low across the board. This will start to become evident in 2026 and all emphasis at this company is going to be on oil and gas exploration and accumulating more reserves. This particular CEO expects the price to fall in the short term and then rebound dramatically when the situation regarding reserves becomes apparent to the wider market. I tended to agree with all of that.

But who knows.

Chart still looks very good. The reverse head and shoulders pattern that is playing out is still in play - price target 260s

Also a new bull flag is developing on the weekly with an optimistic price target closer to 280p.

That said, price is under pressure and the short term charts, specifically the hourly, doesn't look great, head and shoulders that could mean a drop back to the 208p region.

AKA.... could go up or down!

Just my amateurish view. Open to counters.

All Harbour enthusiasts (and anti enthusiasts as you'll see) are welcomed here with open arms.

But to come on here and accuse someone of clogging up the board with "nut nut" politics and then proceed to clog up the board with nut nut politics significantly dents your credibility.

If there is one thing we all agree on here its ALL politicians suck, and the majority if not ALL government policies, regardless of the BS micky mouse party do not have our best interests at heart.

So, back to Harbour.

Most people's HBR crystal balls have been sent back for repairs :)

Mine is working fine.

Sold out at 237p didn't you Rookie?

Sorry Rookie $60/$70 and the dividend is covered at $50.

Harbour is trading at just over 3 times FCF at $60 oil. With 19 years of reserves.

Not only that, they've reduced the debt by 20% in about a year after a huge acquisition. They are paying a large dividend that is comfortably covered and are buying back stock. All at $60 oil.

Thats it.

Add in the adversity that HBR has faced particular in the UK and the way the company has navigated that and previous acquisitions and debt burdens and what do you have? Analysts/sites etc selling subscriptions will be looking for problems or controversy where there is none. Excluding supermajors, oil and gas companies are getting slapped right now. There are few to no exceptions.

The picture is crystal clear to see IMO as far as Harbour Energy is concerned.

Invariably UK ex Div dates/days are always a Thursday.

"Does anyone have any take on my previous post?"

Not sure tbh

Am i being a flid or did I just a see some very large transactions, made on Friday? £52m in total...

I'm not sure if he is aware that Harbour reserves are now 19 years.. Or did i miss that?

Anyone who is able to invest in a stocks and shares ISA and is not doing it needs their head examined.

This and all the other filthy thieving governments will always have their grubby little hands out after a piece of what's yours, and another piece, and another and another.... So there is no excuse. Its about the only thing we get here in the UK and I know it's only £20K which for some isn't much and for others is a lot, either way, USE IT. And if you fill up yours I suggest you then fill up your wifes as well.

As for the share price dropping, ultimately if you are buying dividend paying companies then ideally you will be holding them long term and letting those dividends compound, preferably in your ISA, if you are buying solid businesses the short term price movements of the shares should be of no consequence. It takes patience for your dividends to compound in your ISA but compound they will, and these bandits in government bank on the fact that people do not have that patience to take advantage of it, and it most cases they are right.

If you are trading, well then I have no idea, flip a coin.

"Suppose herd instinct is better than the dartboard."

Well. Thankyou for making my point.

If anyone ever needed definitive confirmation that SWS and other so called experts haven't a clue what they are talking about, then that article is it, in black and white.

And thats typical behaviour from (i'd guess) over 90% of people. Nearly every client i speak to these days, buy stocks based on everything BUT earnings. I wouldn't believe it if i didn't know it was true. Earnings don't mean anything to people anymore, case in point, crypto..there are no earnings. It's all social media, herd mentality nonsense.

Thanks. Going to watch this over lunch.

The good -

The technicals (for what they are worth), reverse head and shoulders still in play, on hourly, daily, weekly, price target 260p region.

The fundamentals : the strongest they've been since Harbours inception, cash flow machine at $60 oil, low production costs, diversified regions of operations, a mountain of reserves. Where as in 2023 Harbour was a compelling risk reward punt, that is no longer the case. Harbour is a now a cash generating powerhouse.

Extras - Insiders buying. Many random insiders picking up shares sub 200p, more activity than we've seen before.

The bad -

I'm struggling for any negatives ..... The price of oil.

This is the best shape the company has ever been in. Some of us have PTSD from Harbours volatile journey, underwhelming earnings days, unexplained selloffs, but don't let that distract or intimidate you from the facts of what the company has become, there is only so long the market will give you a wonderful business on the cheap.

Tomorrow is going to be a good day either way, if it drops, great news lets add sub 200p, but what is far more likely is we are going higher and the days of sub 200p may be gone for good. Appreciate we have said this before but the fundamentals have never been this strong.

But what do I know! I am so confident because of the numbers. And unless Harbour are fudging them, this will only go one way.

Whatever everyone decides to do, I wish you good fortune!

There have been a few people on this board that have been bold/stupid enough to compare and in some cases promote Tullow Oil as a better investment than Harbour.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow, Tullow Oil has been slowly bleeding out for the last few years, while Harbour has got stronger in every way in that now to even compare the two is like comparing apples and oranges.

BP profit beat - raised dividend.

A good omen for Thursday perhaps..