Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Thnx for sharing AimMaster2018 👌 - fair enough, and glad to read you're not significantly underwater 👍 - esp as on the way down you'd made some decent calls with the drops and closing SP's too.

"See the signs,"

Yep, the signs AimMaster2018 is sitting on a big paper loss here with CPI

After Day 4

Points:

VOD - 3

CAPITA - 1

Avocet123 - Nil

Savage - 3 (VOD up / EZJ down / CPI Down)

avocet123 has indeed been wrong, yet again

Primetime51 - you raised the topic of the substation £1bn bill - I hypothesised that it might have an additional risk pricing for many airliners - Stille has explained why that's not the case and I accept that - However, the many other points I've previously made about EZJ still stand IMO - it's overbought by speculators IMO and the fundamentals haven't supported the previously elevated SP's, which is why it's now correcting.

Anyways EZJ is now languishing in the 450's and is still trending downwards IMV- there may be some mini-rallies by speculators but I think the fundamentals will see to it that this stock continues to drop in alignment with the opinion I've shared on here for a long while.

All IMO - DYOR

If no negative consequences for LGW then that's certainly positive news - No doubt other airports may have had a level of disruption & costs due to the LHR outage though. Anyway the real reasons for EZJ SP weakness are little related to the LHR substation fire.

So Stille - does this mean you're saying there would be £0 impact for airliners operating from LGW, if LHR was to experience a full power outage and 14hour shutdown?

Stille - and what would the financial impacts be for those airliners operating from LGW in the eventuality there were to be another outage occurring at LHR within the next 9months?

Primetime51 - Not convinced that'll all be about the £1bn bill... Until the issue is wholly remedied there's going to be an ongoing risk of power interruptions, and therefore risk for all of the potential knock on consequences, for all airliners operating.

DrMaze - Yes, fully aware as I read the results - doesn't change my stance mind you.

Those heights of 570p was driven by much speculator buying... I stand by my estimation that EZJ is fundamentally not worth a great deal more than 400p in the current climate.

Yes, airlines have seen recovery but... traffic is still not yet above pre-pandemic levels yet and what's more all the operation costs today are now significantly higher than pre-pandemic. That's why a correction is ongoing for the SP, and there's further to run yet IMO - DYOR

It was also pretty obviously going to be the case the SP would struggle here:

Too many shares in circulation

Much investment cash required for future growth

Poor EU & UK macroeconomic growth figs

High (relatively speaking) interest rates for UK (yes, lower for EU but the positive effects of rate cuts still yet to be felt)... meaning many will favour safe havens of bonds/gold/asset purchases.

Elevated inflation rates

Weakening job vacancy rates for UK

Then atop there's that Orange ManBaby causing fear, chaos & turbulence for all stock investors.

EZJ will fall a fair bit more yet before levelling out - IMO - DYOR

"Savage has been wrong about ezj again and again." - Quote by avocet123

Really...🤔💭

Towards 15.5p in the coming weeks IMO. I think we'll see some gains here, ahead of the consolidation.

For transparency: I'm not invested, and I will not be investing here - I still think CPI is a steaming pile of 💩 but... equally I want to give my honest view here.

All IMO - DYOR

Primetime51 - I can only guess that your aggression is a sign you're likely to be underwater with this stock.

Sadly, I think there will be further drops incoming over the weeks ahead. Next stop 447p IMO - DYOR

I couldn't be sure of precisely when... but the writing has been on the wall for a good while now.

Interestingly your post below oldtrader as... a couple of week ago (post early March results) I did a rough calculation of possible takeover offer price per share...

I arrived at 27p

Avocet123 - if you reckon VOD is going tonbe a poor performer then why not sell your stake? 🤷

TerryM1 - I see you've advocated offshoring due to high energy prices in UK... There's a downside to such an approach though when it comes to GOV contracts and that's because the data has to be held on UK mainland.

Thanks for the recognition there burgeseb.

On the Gas Safe matter... Someone on here was privy to insider info (info which I am not privy to) - Without such insider knowledge it was looking dicey at the time as to whether or not CPI could pull off retaining that contract. It's clearly not a flaw that I did not have such insider information. My guess at the time was CPI would not pull off that contract renewal and yes, I was incorrect in my forecast at the end of the day.

However, CPI has meanwhile lost other more valuable contract due to it's poor service standards, and lack of costs competitiveness e.g. the army recruitment contract (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/serco-awarded-forces-recruitment-contract-in-blow-to-capita/) and the teachers pension service which lapses Oct 2025 (https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/24/teachers-launch-legal-action-over-the-pension-delays-stalling-divorces) - there are other examples too.

Crunching the combo of current Macroeconomic issues, together with considering the forward fiscal situation for CPI I am currently estimating the FY2025 revenues will dip a little to book ~£2.2bn when those results are due to be published in early March 2026 - That's my current analysis, although as & when trading updates and the HY2025 results arrive then I'll review my forecast & make an update which I'll share on here.

I don't think the turnaround is yet close to being complete as AdamWoodman might believe is the case... and I don't believe CPI will even manage to achieve flat revenues within this upcoming FY2025.

All IMO - DYOR