Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Has the time arrived to resume buying? - Could it soon be the case that the only problem you'll have is you didn't buy more TUI?

Kiwi, it'll be rallying on inevitable Bank rate pauses (either decision next week or Oct rate decision) and Tui December results are inevitably going to be very positive, as every other travel company has reported very strong results so far, with strong forward bookings for next year too. Only you can decide if you're able to wait though, since depends on personal circumstances.

I fear you're right about another dip. High oil prices and no decisive language on bank rate pauses yet.

Interesting discussion on extreme weather, climate change impacts and geological natural disasters. With extensive coverage and easy video content sharing, piped straight to your handset, it's no wonder many feel global situation has become 'biblical'. Good context there hash about warning systems, tech and awareness. A timely reminder that when a simplistic hypothesis is proposed it's nearly always the case there's far more than meets the eye.

I reckon there's v.good odds on imminent mini bull run: Browsing many company results its seems all media doom/gloom is in fact very limited, to commercial real estate and partial retreat steps by housing/construction sector. Few firms posted massive large scale losses, and certainly nothing out there to indicate risks of knock on contagion or systemic economic trouble on immediate horizon. The worst I spotted out there was Synthomer (consolidation and RI announced) and they'd looked to have made bad choices and to have taken on some big risks (I reckon they'll go bump some way down the line, administrative process will pick apart whatever remains). In a nutshell yes, rate rises are having a drag effect but currently nothing that well run companies with sound business models cannot handle. Of which I believe Tui is one of.

Sensible call to drop back a little and see what happens, I think you'll get a chance to buy in at a lower sp later on this week but after that I feel momentum is building in favour of a mini bull run.

Upcoming Ex-Dividend on 14th Sep:

https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/food-producers/bakkavor-group-plc/dividends

I see you... and I raise:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/08/heathrow-will-have-to-cut-passenger-charges-in-2024

This could be pretty awesome news.

Hexam, always happy and it's insightful to be corrected on the financial details, appreciate that watertight clarification!

Apologies Diceman22 - I was speaking more generally, and not targeted at you personally when I exclaimed 'get over it' I mean that many people out there hyper-concerned about debt should 'get over' such heightened fears. Completely recognising though the general narratives out their currently are exacerbating such fears which are always present among investors to varying degrees. Again, sorry for any offense unintentionally caused.

Correction to my comment - Tui Annual Revenue for 2022 was 16.55 billion euros not $ (typo). Great comment Hexam, always good to read your posts, and yes I'd missed that element of plane leasing out of the frame. Also the fact profits are reported AFTER debt repayments have already been made, so it really pays to read the detail in the financials released because its also not the case that debts can only be repaid during times of healthy profits, debts are constantly taken out and repaid across the business landscape and they're paid off via generation of revenue.

Debt is a fact of life... Many in media/politics/economics appear to have recently become totally obsessed with clearing debts down to unhealthily low levels. Yes, too much debt is bad (e.g. Cineworld) but... too little debt can be equally as destructive for a company, under some circumstances (when inflation and demand is high, and set to remain high). This is because if a company uses swathes of its cash to pay down its debts, rather than invest in its critical systems/tools/infrastructure, or to generate new business, it can end up with competitors taking advantage of a period of high demand whereas the risk averse missed out... the economic world is not so simplistic as debt equals bad all of the time. Companies have to constantly re-evaluate market conditions and manage their debts, to ensure they're appropriate levels for the times they're operating in. The 'rules' and economic model a business applies has to adapt. Personally for me Tui struck the right balance, well done to the board!

Not worried about net debt personally. Tui Annual Revenue for 2022 was $16.54bn and 2023 Q3 results showed Revenue growth of nearly 20% for that quarter... i.e. inflation is easily outpacing the growth of the debt pile. With Tui having returned to making sizable profits the debts are easily serviced. What is it with this mad obsession whereby inappropriate economic thought is being applied. It makes zero sense to make a futile attempt to clear debts down to £0... The whole economy is based on debt... get over it!

He no longer owns ~31% btw - The Rights Issue earlier this year diluted them down to around 10-11% max. So I don't agree with what you're saying here.

Recognise why it is that others are keen to take advantage of the current bargain SP, though I'm holding for the minute... as with Goldman Sachs forecasting $107 oil and prices now at raised levels I question if that'll damage profits as we head from the busy summer and into the quieter winter trading months. I do want to buy however, I'll see how things pan out these next 2-4 weeks first I think.

Bailey could have stayed silent and the result would have been the same... What I mean is it's kinda obvious rates have peaked, unless BoE and No.10 want to see everyone made homeless then they can't really raise them much more. It was also acknowledged by J.Hunt that inflation will not get to target for 12-18 months and will only fall to around 5% by End Dec 2023... i.e. Inflation is here for a long while yet (aka buy stocks!)

Haha! Probably the case that we've got used to frequent natural disasters by now. Enough for the next one to barely move the SP?!

Given a quick scan of your posts reveals a vast array of posts all about selling up I'd say you're the delusional one here.

Undervalued imo - Yes, true that profits have reduced but with such a challenging economic climate to still be in healthy profit is a brilliant achievement. Revenue and growth both significantly up, yes there's slightly more debt but this will easily be eroded back by inflation over the next 12 months ahead and WAG should emerge from these turbulent times all the stronger.

Just an outsider view here (I'm not invested). A Consolidation & RI on this magnitude is an 'Unforced Error' imo because the board appear to be targeting debt at 1-2.0 of EBTIDA. Board appears to be applying logic for 'normal' economic times i.e. a conventional/conservative narrative which says 'large debts' equals 'huge threat to solvency of the business'. However... We're not in 'normal' economic times and therefore imo you need to account for that, by adjusting the logic/model which you opt to apply to the situation. Bank Rates are set to imminently plateau and most Central Banks of the big western economies have acknowledged that inflation will not shoot back downwards to target... SYNT board could have and should have conducted a much smaller consolidation and RI here imo (and they should have done it 6 months ago and not now but that's another thing, since signs of rising rates were so obvious)... What I mean by that is SYNT board could have allowed the raised inflation rates over at least the next 12 months to eat away at some of their debts for them with Zero effort and by this action announced today they'll miss out on that. A big mistake imo because in 12 months time many other competitors will have benefitted from a proportion of their debts being wiped out by revenue growth... it's the equivalent of an individual with a fairly big mortgage reading the daily heil and reacting by raiding their savings accounts in a futile attempt to aggressively clear their mortgage... and then having to explain to the entire family why they cannot cook or eat tomorrow because there's no money for the electric of the food shop. Instead they could have paid a little bit off and continued to get by