Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

RNS just posted reveals BlackRock reduced their holdings, helps explain a part of the story behind the recent falls in the SP.

Primetime51 - Link for summary of Mar 2023 price rises, for all the main telecoms providers: https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2023/january/april-broadband-price-hikes/

I bought a small holding of BT shares a couple of months ago... Given BT raised monthly prices for almost all customers by around 14.5% back in Mar 23 they'll have been generating rather healthy revenues recently and ongoing too. Not long until Nov 2nd results and BoE bound to hold rates at 5.25% when they announce on the same day as the interim results... I see SP being £1.40 pretty soon (albeit the standard Oct turbulence until then).

It was either OSG, Shakineven or downbutnotout I think?... Great SP for buying up more. I'm pleased to see oil having dropped nearer to $90. Can't be much more of a fall to go now, maybe down to 410-420, beyond that buying pressure will rapidly ramp up with results now only a matter of 10 weeks away!

CAA conclude decision (for landing charges at Heathrow) on 17th Oct too, looks bound to be a little boost:

https://www.ft.com/content/b4665839-3d29-4567-b2f4-686a7390cc44

Masaimara - Could you please elaborate? E.g. by suggesting what may possibly be wrong? Perhaps you may have some suggestions? - I ask as throughout travel sector, and within finer details of many travel company trading updates and results, there appears scant evidence of any systemic issues in the travel sector at all. Not only that but many other companies, less directly involved but which are beneficiaries of travel activity, have also failed to report any sector specific issues. The travel sector has not only returned to profitability but is widely reporting record breaking demand and healthy cash revenues. In my opinion the markets are in a panic and are applying old economics models to a brand new economic world with a totally different demand focus (i.e. retail is out of fashion - replaced by travel/experiences and making memories with family/friends is in fashion in a big way).

Great buying opportunities today, especially with oil prices now in retreat! November BofE rate hold looks near to a certainty and perhaps even a small climb down to a flat 5%. December Tui results forecast as 'Significantly above expectations'. We'll easily be back above £6 by early November.

Brent Oil having peaked last week around $95-96 looks to have dropped significantly back towards $90 today, maybe we could see some weeks ahead of falling oil prices? - Could be great news for TUI ,as although supply is hedged eventually the going rates filter through to the whole economy and especially travel sector.

I think the travel sector has clearly diverged away from the performance of many other businesses elsewhere in the wider economy. Travel is enjoying a huge boom, on the back of spending habits by over 55's (demographic least impacted by raised interest rates). I don't see this changing any time soon, as UK fiscal policy is significantly benefitting jet setting boomers & Co! There's potential for massive windfalls here, by December TUI SP will be flying towards £8.

With the notable drop in house prices now rather baked in, due to BofE rate rises over the last year or so, it seems more evidence is emerging which could support an revision of rates at the Nov 2nd rate decision downwards to a flat 5%? Could the bank shy away from a simple pause in an effort to signal to consumers they can resume their spending? 5.25% and the fear of higher could have panicked the public into cutting their spending just that little bit too much? What do you all reckon? - A small cut could deliver a nice bounce/mini bull run in SP's market wide!

Very interesting how markets apparently had expectations CCL would clear its entire debt holdings in these set of results... All in all yet another business signalling travel demand is insatiable. Many question if that'll continue, if the west enters recession. Meanwhile I still think there will be contraction for some sectors, as the economy shifts into this new era and model, with huge growth for those sectors now favoured in this post pandemic world.

I make it 3pm? - UK currently BST, not GMT: https://www.worldtimebuddy.com

Yes, hopefully good news and may well ripple out for TUI?! - Webcast for CCL results here: https://www.carnivalcorp.com/events/event-details/carnival-corporation-plc-hold-conference-call-2023-3q-earnings

In other news... ONS released Apr-Jun 2023 UK GDP quarterly national accounts. Amongst the noise these stated the following: "household saving ratio is 9.1% in Q2 (Apr to Jun) 2023, up from 7.9% in Q1 (Jan to Mar) 2023. This upward movement was driven by a rise in social benefits other than transfers in kind of £10.2 billion, together with increased wages and salaries of £6.0 billion." - I think this is v.interesting, strong evidence general public have heard the messaging and have reacted doom/gloom news and to Bank of England rate rises by aggressively saving whatever they can spare. Now at some point these savings will be spent and I wonder if BoE could very soon tweak the Bank Rate downwards a notch, as a signal to General Public they can spend a little more (via less interest reward by hoarding cash in savings accounts). The risk of a rates reduction of course being it may weaken the £ (which has already significantly retreated against $) and aid inflation to resume an upward direction again. Link here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2023

Should be a Friday buy-day today for TUI, 480p ish might even prove to be easily achievable as the wider market looks set up for a rise. Sure, I'll check out those other platforms and would be good to discuss ideas. Speaking of which SSPG I mentioned just had another director buy RNS (deputy I think) their SP should rise up nicely today, as their results were strong and shorters blatantly trying it on look bound to be forced to close.

There we go! Huge Director buy on the RNS of £149,475 - Massive vote of confidence in SSPG

Huge Director Buy for SSPG of £149,475 of shares. Massive signal of confidence in the travel sector when considering the TUI director buy earlier this week as well. A sign that board members are putting their money where their mouth is despite the media doom and gloom and hopefully the shorters will soon be flushed out more widely across the whole travel sector.

Thanks for sharing your trading experience Stupmy and interesting you mention many who you had got to know virtually have ended up exiting, due to booking significant losses. Sensible you're advocating a steady approach and I'll certainly take care to stick with that sound method to remain in business and learn more and more! I still think there's big money in a long hold for Tui, fundamentally I see no causes for alarm with their business model, or their leadership. Yes, many were upset by the RI but... it's positioned the company very nicely to remain ahead of the choppy waters which those less well run companies now find themselves caught up in. Whilst many investors may be sorely disappointed (even angry) with paper losses (or real ones if they sold off their holdings) there's also opportunity through staying the distance as TUI quickly recovers. I'm glad I bought into Tui post Consolidation and Pre-RI and I plan to keep on buying tranches at a steady rate over the autumn/winter months, as and when I'm able to afford to and where I spot dips for taking advantage of.

Meant to add that I don't short sell as haven't the experience or cash to burn though in taking such risks. Just quality companies, with a sensible business model for me at the minute.

Interesting you built your knowledge up through years of trading experience, learning on the fly. I've observed the markets and economic news from the side-lines for a long time. I figured I could hoover up info with a view to get involved in trading one day, when I was ready to. I did buy into a fund in the distant past, for a short time, made a small bit of cash (but relatively good for the investment size). I planned to never invest in one again after later seeing many scandals (Neil Woodford for one). Then over Christmas 2022 I just decided to take the plunge and buy some shares. Timing was impeccable, as Dec 22 was a major lull, snapped up some beauts between xmas and just after NY, sold them all out early to late Mar 2023 (also bought into Tui for the first time, post consolidation, after doing extensive research). Headed off Skiing (by chance with TUI) on the winnings from my share sales, which I knew was beginners luck. Got back and BAM! Rights Issue fun times... I happen to think the RI was good btw (with Russian not able to take part respectively everyone else benefitted). I'm also invested in some others as well as TUI, lots of opportunity out there right now (in my opinion) if going long, as share prices on the LSE very oversold. It's only small fry for now, Rome wasn't built in a day! Still... better off investing in shares during times of elevated inflation, as cash diligently saved in a bank account will more than likely be devalued.

That's cause your superior experience trading and your larger pot to trade with means you probably have lower trading fees than I do. For me, thanks to our illustrious Gov it's undesirable to buy a house, as wages respectively low vs houses costing 12-15x earnings... but instead I can buy up shares in a company that's inevitably going to profiteer off those 50+ with disposable incomes. With a little luck hopefully my profits via divi's and share sales at a higher SP will get me my deposit to buy me a house down the line (3-5yrs time) once residential property has stagnated for ages and ends up back in some normal buying range.

Valid point about the Insurance arm of SAGA. Yes, they attract a loyal customer base, though unsure how that factors into the decisions those 55+ make in signing for their insurance packages. As for travel I just do not see a mechanism to deflate the insatiable demand right now or in the foreseeable future. Precisely why I did my research and chose to newly invest in TUI with intention of building up my holdings and selling none of it in the short term.

Shorters gonna short... All the meanwhile SAGA et al. will simply crack on with filling up their coffers with the soaring revenues rolling in thick and fast!