Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

As Public Enemy once foretold "Don't Believe the Hype" - rarely has more sagely prose been spoken. Words which resonate especially well today...

For Captain Rishi just pulled off an impressive accounting trick, one worthy of a medal, to be handed out by Lib Dem bar chart designer of the year!... Today he will claim to have slayed the 'inflation deamons' but... what he's not telling the media is the fact there's a heap of public sector backpay owed to many workers... backpay which is set to land in pay cheques over the coming months. This will push inflation back upwards a little.

Stupmy, interesting you're waiting on TUI dropping back some more... as am I. Wise going short on EZJ imo too, I think it's SP will diverge away from TUI over the months ahead.

Completely agree, and although temporarily Whizz SP looks to be down it's hard to see this trend continuing as it keeps raking in the cash revenues on this magnitude! I think it's important to remember Tui is the biggest player in the market, the board got ahead of the curve on the scale of the debts with the RI and holidays are more profitable than just return journey seats on a flight too. Tui with the far greater market share... could we be looking spectacular, knocking it out the park, Dec Yr end results?

Completely agree there's a monumental crisis in Commercial property and bricks + mortar retail sectors. Yes, will mean chunky debt write downs and losses for any creditors. Certainly worrying signs with German economy and construction sectors seemingly suffering worldwide. I think oil prices off the boil will help provide some relief. If the 90's/2000's was dominated by high tech manufacturing + retail mall/out of town shopping the 2010's/20's looks set to continue to be all about online shopping (warehouses/couriers), travel + tourism and green industry/power. One interesting company imo is Teemill: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/07071956/filing-history - it's about to return its next set of accounts and whilst 2022 looked dicey I think it's about to do very well indeed with it's online and made to order/sustainability business model.

I understand why you feel the way you do, on overall economic outlook. However, I don't think we're likely to see an enormous crash anytime imminently. What I think we're far more likely to see is truck loads more stagflation yet to come, and the reason there won't be a crash in my view is entirely down to one person alone... Lettuce be thankful for Elizabeth Truss?! - To explain this I probably need to nurture the ole imagination... Let us enter into a parallel universe, one in which there was 'NoTruss'... Firstly, what a wonderful world it could be?! Well, or so we may well be led into thinking... For, if it were not for Truss then illustrious leaders of 'Global Britain' would have careered somewhat more gradually into total oblivion... Mr Chancellor with his open chequebook, together with BoE ultra low rates would have bubbled up the whole economy for a far longer period of time, and the gigantic crash would probably have just happened in the last month. So back to the world in which we are currently in... The rest of the world enjoyed watching on, and mocking in their droves, as TrussOnomics unfurled with it's devastating consequences but... they had opportunity to learn from our Dear Trussy and alter course... Homeowners got the shocks of their lives and borrowers too, the debt pay downs and reductions in volume of borrowings mean imo we'll trundle on with stagnation and raised inflation for a fair time yet. Growth will remain flat but similarly though the bubble got big, it was stopped from getting gigantic.

Cheers for sharing Stupmy - I fear we may see things get ugly at the weekend with the Gaza/Israel situation stoking tensions and this might cause the market and SP's to dip tomorrow/Fri and next week perhaps?

Stupmy - Call me sceptical but just because those marketing practices were in the King's speech it doesn't mean current Gov will be stable enough, for long enough, to get that legislation over the line... I don't think it'll come into effect anytime soon. Then even if it hypothetically made it... it'd just create a different path through the IT system for customers, whereby flyers with hand luggage only have to remove the bag somewhere in the purchase process to bag the saving... it will add a one off cost for all airlines to amend their IT processes but that's about all.

My losses are zero, I made profit earlier this year, as a new investor buying up a tranche of BT then selling it at higher SP (I made the sale as l felt SP.went too high and was bound to fall, which it did almost immediatelyafter I'd sold). Since it's fallen down to the current levels I've restarted my process of buying again but... this time I plan on buying many more tranches and holding them for far longer.

For what it's worth... I'm with Fleccy ;-) - good SP prices for buying recently and right now... new Lab Gov will put a rocket underneath telecoms sector, as it's an quick win in terms of delivering/contributing to kickstarting better economic growth and improvement in productivity.

Mr Drahi may find out Fleccy is his new competition?

Reading lots of articles lately warning about the threat of $150-$250 oil... Personally I think it'll turn out to be complete and utter rubbish as there's already been demand destruction and with USA the clear world producer now it's true the global West has better energy security than was the case 10yrs ago. I see the forward oil prices being more around $60-$90 for the next 0-3yrs ahead and no odds at all of hitting the doom-monger levels being brandished about in the media!

Not quite Santa but perhaps if Bailey does the Press conference with a beard on there could be some festive cheer on the way?: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/november-2023

Will it be a HOLD? Or could we even see a festive CUT today?! Ho Ho Ho?!

5th December for Prelim Results (Source: https://www.foodtravelexperts.com/investors/financial-calendar) - Given they appear to be trading in a sector with healthy demand I'd agree about the theory of restoring the Divi in the not too distant future, perhaps most likely at AGM on 16th Feb, perhaps?

Taverham - IAG's strong results are very interesting indeed... proof that soaring Revenues are allowing past debts to be more easily serviced. Now IAG has far more debt than TUI does (personally for me I wouldn't yet invest in IAG because very large debts can still be a risk) but... I'm happy to continue investing in TUI because it's debt levels are now way more than sensible, relative to ever growing income landing in the coffers (~€2bn debt to ~€18-20bn+ revenues). With the recent ECB rate hold, plus imminent BoE Rate hold too... I see a landscape evolving in which Travel keeps on bringing in the cash (on back of inflation still running significantly raised above central bank targets). Meanwhile oil has come off the boil, there's cuts to landing charges at Heathrow too (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/uk-regulator-tells-heathrow-cut-fees-win-airlines-2023-03-08/) and a slow climb down for interest rates over the next couple of years (making it cheaper down the line to invest and/or service debts). The forward look for TUI is not only bright, it's going to be a massive boom (in my opinion, DYOR).

ECB Rates Hold - News emerging appears to be an admission ECB has now achieved the peak in rates... Likely path ahead looks to be a long hold, with only small and carefully managed rate cuts. Given inflation is still above target I envisage company revenues will continue to be strong for months ahead yet. Stocks should welcome this ECB decision today!

ECB rate decision later on today. If its a hold that should support stocks nicely ahead of the festive season, some may declare the peak has been reached?!

Lots of US data out today & tommorow, that'll give useful insight info the state of the world's largest economy... IAG and Natwest reporting results tomorrow too.

Foxykiwi - For stocks there's far to many variables in play... depends when you invest, how many tranches at which SP's and when you plan on exiting too... though if you mean buying stocks today vs. buying a Gov bond or savings account deal I think stocks will prove the better return over next 3-12 months ahead.

Utter codswallop, spouted in an act of desperation to save his ailing investment portfolio: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/24/remote-employees-dont-work-as-hard-says-head-of-worlds-biggest-commercial-landlord

The world has moved on significantly, and no longer will workers accept the complete and utter blatant wastage of their time, money and resources.

Strap yourselves in for the festivities! Nov bank rate holds (except USA perhaps) combined with soaring company revenues look set to kick off some festive cheer?! Looks as though we've long hit peak rates now and the forward path is a rather slow climb back down to ~3.5% rates (UK)...

Hi Diceman, Unsure on the sources for the rally there. There's a few on here quite good at analysing pivots like that, perhaps others may know?... Speaking of others... Not heard from Hexam in a long while!

Are we about to have a green light on a Santa rally? A mini bull run does feel long overdue!