Great Results!.. Where are we now?19 Sep 2023 10:44
Cracking results today and having invested post consolidation but pre-RI they're in line with my expectations (for transparency I've not made a single sale to date, currently holding my lot). My thoughts on where we are now:
Oil - Yes, TUI hedging was inevitable and confirmed by todays statement. Nevertheless oil prices remain my top concern as high oil prices have a whole economic system downside impact (unless you're an oil company, or oil rich nation). Further Bank rate rises and a China slowdown may yet bring prices off the boil, medium term but... eventually even those hedging will feel the rising prices.
Interest Rates & Inflation - Despite media doom and gloom narrative it's not true that rising rates negatively impacts upon everybody. Those without large debts and who've paid off their mortgages wont be feeling pain, and may well have also had a ~10.9% state pension uplift (note now less than rolling 12month inflation rate). Plus those with large pots of cash in their accounts are now earning more too, thus mitigating against inflation to allow them to keep on booking holidays... Expect your TUI holiday to be boomer busy!
The markets - Shorters have been majorly capitalising on hesitation/reluctance/fears to drive down many stocks recently, with much success too! However, hard evidence from company results appears starkly different... many companies have seen their incomes swell, on the back of high inflation, with boards opting to make debt pay downs and issue dividend increases too. Yes, a select few companies have struggled but they're in the minority when you examine the bigger picture. We could well be about to witness a mini bull run, as the last of the price dips play out?
TUI SP - I'm going to be bold here... I think we'll see £7.50 rather soon (mid-end Oct) and perhaps even £8.25-£9 immediately before/after Dec Q4 results.
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