Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

"new laws will force people back into office space to save the economy" - Have to be frank and disagree on this one... Mass disobedience will be the result as office working is inefficient. WFH simultaneously improves the environment and frees up more discretionary spending... For transparency I'm WFH pretty much perm nowadays. Hugely more efficient, I spend more time working now, far less commuting stress, less nasty diesel fumes inhaled, less travel expense and far less CO2 emitted. Helps free up road capacity for those who really need to be on the road for the nature of their job. Cash saved aimlessly driving around and parking means I can direct it to Tui holidays and doing up the house instead! Yes, commercial property is destined to drop like a stone, stranded assets really unless they're converted into housing to save us from sprawling housing estates decimating the countryside!

Dropping such a significant volume, mid holiday season (with generally reduced trading volumes), will no doubt move the market more than during busier times too.

Nice to see that RNS appear as yup, does appear to explain the source for significant proportion of the sell off. Not sure if that equates to them shorting though, hexam/stupmy what do you both reckon?

Honestly cannot recall, could have been OSG or perhaps me? However, I definitely had been expecting this recent SP drop, albeit I mis-judged the price point for the floor, which I think moved deeper on this wider global turbulence having amplified the situation.

I still think developed world central banks will be pleased to see these market drops, they'll be of the view they've regained control somewhat and I wholly expect them to pivot with ever stronger language on rate pauses to further demonstrate their grip has resumed.

SP's in the 470's - absolute bargain! Nice buys Stupmy. My loan application from 'bank of wifey' was declined... else I too would be buying up more today! Considering my other options...

Superb additional context/analysis there Hexam, thanks for sharing. I've said many times I'm not worried about TUI's debt levels, despite interest rate rises. As large revenue growths locked in from significant inflation these last few years, it's not going to suddenly switch off... lots of cash still sloshing around in the global system. Rate rises only impacts a proportion of the whole economy (yes, that draws more in with each passing day but there's a long lag time).

Strikes no longer happening this Bank Holiday at Gatwick Airport:

https://news.sky.com/story/threat-of-bank-holiday-strikes-at-gatwick-is-lifted-union-reveals-12946358

"sketchy history" plus these crazy mad comparisons to Cineworld and McColls... - what will be thrown out there next? Woolworths/Wilko analogy??! - Spending my evening looking at various ways I can raise some more cash! Tui's a top recognised, quality and well trusted company. Dedicated staff, decent aircraft and coaches plus offerings to suit all budgets.

With the currency conversion commission my RI shares purchase price was £4.93, via Hargreaves Lansdown.

Yep, the rate rises have done their job now of delivering the market falls required for a correction and to tame inflation. Expecting to see developed world central banks pivot and calling time on the rises with language to suggest holds for Sept. I don't think they'll let falls run for much longer, great buying opportunity to fill the boots whilst it lasts!

Not long to wait for the Pre-Close Trading Update (19 Sept): https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/financial-calendar

Well I didn't, I booked in a week of AL immediately ahead of when the lockdown was implemented. With zero vaccines back then and such a high infection rate it was clear authorities would quickly lose control else. Lockdows were already in place in other countries and super obvious UK would be no different.

We are however now in a totally different climate as vaccinations and lots of baseline immunity out there.

Except that's simply not going to happen... utter codswallop.

With current SP I'm now pondering digging deep, to buy up far more TUI than I'd previously considered...

Potential rewards for a bold approach are looking increasingly likely to outweigh risks of going too deep. After all what are the true risks in play right now?

Sure, general economic slowdown may well trundle on but... given already reduced carrying capacity of the whole travel sector out there the real terms impact of an economic slowdown on travel sector might prove to be hardly felt?

Positive seeing oil prices have eased back towards $80 and other factors lining up behind to imminently support a widespread market rally.

Zero chance of travel restrictions, since most are already vaccinated nowadays which at least offers some baseline protection for the vast majority and even against new strains to a degree. Perhaps vulnerable could be advised to take precautions and consider wearing facemasks but that's about as far as I could see things going. Many will have zero tolerance for the prospects of yet another ruined Christmas and all the costs/disruption.

90%+ load factors with huge revenues pouring into the company coffers of the largest pan European travel company. Travel is booming and TUI is the best placed market leader out there to capitalise on that in a big way.

507p is a good price and when the mini bull run kicks off, pretty imminently, you'll be glad you bought at that price. Anticipating language on Sept rate holds is about to get much louder! Recent market wide SP corrections have almost bottomed out now.

I opted for a top up at just above £5.10 - felt it's a sensible price. Yes, perhaps next two days may see drops for great buys but as holidays come to an end + many return to desks the trade volumes will notch up and calls for action on the economy will grow louder too. Wanted to lock in a reasonable SP rather than hold on for too long.

0% odd of TUI going bust and close to that are the odds of TUI having a takeover bid made too. I do reckon we'll be sub £5 for a short while though (which i've already said before), as general market gloom, no divi and the next results being a number of moons away mean there lacklustre support for the SP right now.

Lots of resistance around that £5.30 level... if sp only manages to rise up to £5.50 it could be looking rather likely it may fall back, perhaps even right down to £5 or below, later on this week ahead of the bank holiday?