Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

CCL RNS results on Fri 29th. Definitely one to watch for further signals on market conditions! - Link here: https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-and-events/events-calendar/upcoming

Correction to my typo: that last sentence should have read "Debt purism makes zero business sense, just as bingeing on debt makes zero business sense too."

Previously Stupmy I thought we'd see drops today PM and tomorrow PM and that'd be the end of the drops. Increasingly though I agree upward momentum is winning out the battle as it's crystal clear travel is booming and cash revenue is filling the coffers of all the big travel firms, of which TUI is one of the biggest carriers and so stands to benefit the most from this market trend. Pretty soon I think there will be a sharp upturn and though it's undulate it'll not drop back to these current lows. Bull run here we come!

50k RNS director buy - Seb Ebel - good vote of confidence signal.

OSG... On your return from your next SAGA holiday do share with us the demographics of your trip ;-) - Call me sceptical but I'd put money on Av.age being at least 65!

Stupmy... Yep, in my opinion SAGA will unlikely register any signal of the economic turmoil currently facing the working and aspiring middle classes. The Boomers Boom days are still full tilt! SAGA SP bound to do well.

Stupmy, I'd argue we're already in that lonely future where contact with other people will primarily be via electronic means... Self Service checkout/courier home deliveries/smartphone's with social media viewing portals into a completely virtual world.

Except simultaneously we're also not at all in that 'lonely future' at all - Since with more free time now made available to pursue other things (via the mundane being made quick and easy) we (as in everyone, not you and I) can now holiday with friends and family more frequently because we can wield the axe to that second car (and to the fuel it used to guzzle for the commute) which we barely use any longer. With solar panels and battery on the rooftop plus insulation fitted the bills for many are now lower too. I'd argue business conditions for travel/tourism, the arts and culture are all ripe for a monumental boom, that is once political decisions are made to share out national wealth just a little more fairly than they are currently.

Having read your point I remain in disagreement:

1. EPS range was quoted at 7.0p-7.5p - bottom end of that range suggests 7.0-7.24p. The update did not say below the range so 7.0p appears to be the floor.

2. £305 million still respectable as is £280 million. For 2024 forecast, we'll have to see how that looks come December update... much economic turbulence means that could shift upwards imo as forecasts proving far more pessimistic than reality of company results at the moment.

3. Yes, shorters currently opened up bets on SP falling. Doesn't mean they're correct though. Markets seemingly obsessed with debt reduction but SSPG's debts are already within sensible ranges. Aggressively paying down debts isn't always of benefit (reduces availabile cash to invest for business growth). Also inflation erodes away debts, and a raised level of inflation looks embedded for next 24 months. SSPG can just let inflation erode away a proportion of the debts.

4. Yes, £ falling back somewhat will probably benefit SSPG but be careful on advocating such extreme debt pay downs as manageable debts are no bad thing. Debt purism makes zero business sense, just as binging on debt makes zero business sense too.

City centre woes sadly only a problem for people who venture to them... meanwhile SAGA and results of other travel firms aptly demo many spending their spare cash and time jetting abroad. With home delivery couriers and weekly food shops direct to ones door its true many now opt to totally shun decayed town centres completely. Probably going to be this way for a while until Councils and businesses completely rethink how our towns and cities function.

This was completely inevitable, given cost of living crisis proportionally hitting under 55's the hardest. Conversely, over 55's have majority of their mortgages paid off, ample savings banked, own their car(s) and other home goods outright with cheaper monthly outgoings like insurance and genrally lower 'need' for credit too. The pension uplifts with inflation mean they're hardly aware of the hardship that younger working people are experiencing and are instead jetting off on plenty of holidays. Saga results just reinforces that economic woes elsewhere in the economy are not felt equally by all.

Situation bears similarities with 'Blockbuster' and later on 'Love Film' they imploded spectacularly but it didn't end the movie business. Things just evolve and commercial real estate will be little different, as buildings will go through a decades long process of being repurposed (albeit for immediate years ahead prices will be held right down, due to significant oversupply of floor space). Just like Blockbuster and other major sector crises it doesn't mean contagion is inevitable and there's also opportunities too.

Commercial real estate is absolutely in crisis but it's akin to ox plough becoming obsolete upon the invention of the mechanical tractor. Many can work from home far more efficiently and there is no going back to the old days because it's inefficient to commute for the 9-5 office shift every day of the week. Any attempts to go backwards will fail and the Commercial real estate businesses would better spend their energy on repuposing buildings for housing and leisure and an array of other uses. Some real estate companies and cowboy operators have sought to mask or deny the steep decline and with it the financial.losses too.

I may be a 2p trader but the volumes Stupmy is trading prove he's definitely no 2p trader.

Sure, take your point OSG... if one is buying TUI for shorter term gains. However, I'm buying tranches to accumulate a large long term holding, for Divi's once they get restored and though I'll probably overbuy and offload some for SP gains I intend on keeping the majority for a regular income as I believe in years to come people will look back at these insanely low prices and wish they'd bought up far more! Stupmy, presumably your plan to hold some cash back is to ensure the sellers find it that much more tricky to regain any downward momentum, as you can time some buys to trigger on dips?

With Oil now simmering down this afternoon, on China slowdown, I agree it's now time to buy again. USA/EU/UK unlikely to be significantly negatively impacted by China fallout... maybe minor impacts at fringes of the economy though certainly nothing systemic/contagion like. I think the Bull run is about to begin and I'm now imminently looking to buy too.

Highlight Quotes from the latest Trading Update:

"Strong underlying trading momentum is expected to continue through to the end of the financial year, leaving SSP well-positioned to deliver results at the upper end of the ranges previously indicated for both revenue and EBITDA (underlying pre-IFRS 16). - Upper end, why the drop in SP?

"Group revenues are expected to be c.£3.0bn vs £2.2bn in the prior year (at actual exchange rates), representing growth of c.37% year-on-year." - Spectacular revenue growth, now that BoE rates appear to be at, or very near to, peak this growth should be sustained/permanently embedded since no signs at all of deflation (just less inflation, inflation still above 2% target rate).

"pipeline of secured net contract gains is now expected to add over £700m to overall revenues compared to 2019, on an annualised basis, representing at least an additional £75m to the £625m reported at our Interim results in May 2023. We expect these units to open over the next two years, with the normal level of pre-opening costs and maturity profile." - New contracts have significantly added to the business, i.e. increased overall size.

"We expect to deliver these results despite the significant strengthening of Sterling against most of our major currencies during the year." - With £ now having somewhat fallen back, could see even better performance Sep-Dec?

"following our significant progress in sustainability reporting and the continued delivery against our strategy, in June 2023, we achieved an MSCI ESG Rating of A" - Superb PR for SSPG.

Cannot get my head around why the significant fall in the SP last week... Okay so perhaps this quote might be suggesting a part of the reason: "This would represent full year revenue of c.£3.0bn and EBITDA (underlying pre-IFRS 16) of c.£280m with a corresponding EPS (underlying pre-IFRS 16) towards the lower end of the previously indicated range of 7.0-7.5p." - I.e. 7.0p) - However, with the group still more than profitable in what are turbulent times, and given inflation now much lower than the last 12 months, the future is looking very promising indeed. Esp with a booming travel sector (all travel companies reporting record results).

Meant to add that CCL/EZJ have bow drifted up... with markets having been under sustained downward pressure for the best part of 3 months now I'd say the bears are heading in for hibernation.

I think we'll see Tui climb to 518p and higher next week as the markets digest the rate pauses and come to the realisation the whole economy is in fact not about to implode... could we see the usual 2-3pm sell off followed by a rally up to 495p and maybe a smidge above 500p?

Only thing holding me back from making a top up now oil prices... I think I'll be making my move to buy some more if those simmer down below $90.

Hi Stupmy, interesting viewpoint but I'd like to challenge it... in my opinion Home Reit never had a sound business model and investors are grouping to claim against the potentially illegal practices: https://homereitclaim.co.uk/

Rising interest rates tend to cause zombie companies like this one to fall from their perch but... higher rates don't necessarily topple well run companies, with sound business models and a decent board, who can steer in choppy waters to get a quality business through challenging times. The China slowdown may even have a benefit to the west by taking oil prices downwards too. I just don't see imminent threat of mass contagion out there at the minute and certainly not for quality companies like TUI and many other UK and EU well run businesses either.

Yes, probably will be a red day... though fundamentals should deliver a rally very soon, as no mass insolvencies and many companies are doing very well with profits rolling in. Some investors appear panicked on the news but cant see how their knee jerk reactions are justified. I'll be continuing to buy on these low prices.