Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

I broadly agree with your synopsis Stupmy. Although, I don't believe travel will suffer this time around, in quite the same way it has in past economic downturns, because pent up demand will probably take several years to unwind. Phrases like 'I don't care how much it costs... I am going on holiday this summer' have been quite telling. Many who missed out on catch ups with friends/family still haven't yet got around to seeing everyone they intend on visiting. Election cycles have a role to play too, perhaps... e.g. I expect UK Gov to throw the kitchen sink at something 'feelgood' ahead of 2024 GE, which may act to prevent onset of a recession during next 14 months (albeit may end up exacerbating one later on). USA bound to approach 2024 election with policies to stimulate the economy too. I see inflation remaining hot with revenues pouring into company coffers, boosting SP's.

If only...

Https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk

Yields for 2Yr, 5yr and 10yr bonds are now all inverted (10yr tipped this morning). Though 30yr not yet inverted... Strengthens the 'recession signal' for UK.

One of two Gatwick airport strikes has been called off by the Unite Union. The other is currently out for ballot but is not likely to be approved (guess we'll have to see if that situation changes).

Good news one has been resolved though!

Very interesting and given how hammered many SP's are at the minute it's a purchase which makes complete sense. With inflation remaining on the boil revenues across are inevitably going to be monumental. For years property has had it's heyday but it's now time for equities to shine.

Rather nice to see oil prices falling after gradual hikes recently. This should significantly boost profits throughout the travel sector over these crucial months and especially helpful ahead of the December annual results for TUI.

Source: https://oilprice.com/

Correction Bot... "Take money out, Put it in a bank, and get maximum 6% for a year. Minus at least 7% to account for impact of inflation = at least -1%".

Hi DiceM, these are auctions usually held just before market open and after market close too. You can read about them here: https://www.ii.co.uk/help/trading/useful-information/sets-intraday-auctions#auction

Ditto! 552 felt like a good price. Continuing to hold some cash back though, as another dip or two can't be ruled out yet...

Who wants to buy some more TUI?

OSG, might be worth repeating this line to yourself a few times over +over? Maybe then it'll sink in?:

'A share has the value of precisely the amount someone is willing to pay for it'

'A share has the value of precisely the amount someone is willing to pay for it'

'A share has the value of precisely the amount someone is willing to pay for it'

TERP/Overfishing/Underfishing whatever the equivalent buzz word of the day, is completely and utterly irrelevant...

Down we go again... Someone out there is having some fun hitting that sell button today!

Gladstone Capital Management Llp - They'd dropped their Short down from 1.6% yesterday to just 0.88% today (start price of 6.99 EUR)

Current open Short Positions on Tui (German Stock Exchange, not LSE): https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=tui%20ag&land=germany

I believe the 'O' just means that it's a standard trade and not something programmed in automatically to either buy or sell at a pre-specified price point threshold. As for the 'unknown', I've seen my own trades display like this occasionally for both (buys + sales). Easiest way to figure out if it was a buy or sell is look at the price of the next trade immediately following to see if the price is higher or lower.

Correct me if I am wrong but isn't TERP just a standard mathematical calculation used for all RI's?... hence Theoretical (as share values are directly linked to the price someone is willing to pay I.e. supply vs demand).

Thanks for pointing this out Hexham and yep, perhaps given many other travel sector results having been markedly more upbeat then it may well explain why we've not seen the TUI sp rise like it has done for others.

Reason I think the year end results will be great is due to the rapidly accelerating rising limb for the whole travel sector, I just don't see a scenario unfolding in which the travel sector goes into retreat. I.e. its no longer just bounceback from the pandemic, instead there is accelerating real growth on top of the bounceback.

One to watch, in my opinion, is crude oil prices... they've been creeping upwards and just hit around $85 a barrel... a surge in oil prices could do some damage, though hopefully the prices will remain in a sensible range.

Respectfully disagree Hexam - I think these results are slightly better than it may at first appear. Whole travel sector being on an accelerating rising limb could well mean great things for the year end results down the line. The rising tide of inflation has done exactly what I anticipated, in that it's lifted all boats!..

"Revenue rises to 5.3 billion euros: +19 per cent compared to previous year (4.4 billion euros)" - Soaring revenues help make paying off debts considerably easier (as I've mentioned before).

Rhodes and the UK economic outlook are the flies in the ointment. Yes, Germany has some economic woes with it's industrial sector but the recent results there were MoM which are subject to far greater variability than quarterly results are.

Results right here - released this morning: https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2023/ir-news/20230809