Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Today's sp drop feels more down to news on average Mortgage rates now being above 6% threshold. With many having such large nortgage debts concerns on borrowers meeting their repayments are no doubt up sharply... with context that few thought rates would get this high so rapidly. Could we see sp's stagnate for next 2-4 weeks?

Purchase of 99,168.80 EUR at 6.86 EUR on the RNS - Good signs?

Hi MikeS02 - thanks for sharing this. Curious strategy for them to have opened a new short - aside from the odd bit of turbulence I cannot envisage there's any real mechanism for a prolonged sp fall right now. Surely SP set to hit ~680 within next week/fortnight?

Stupmy: "I've taken a risk. I've dropped a small percentage of my position at a small profit in the hope that the price will fall back to 525 area." and "Without a wider market crash or unexpected TUI specific news, I think this will rise strongly when it's released from the sellers".

Impeccable timing perhaps? What with many shares now on their way downwards, thanks to this mornings bad news in Ukraine...

Is it possible the depressed prices the last couple of weeks (due to news on US debt ceiling causing turbulence) may have prolonged the offloading process?

Could a meaningful bounce still be a few weeks off yet? (Short of Tui reinstating dividends?)...

Most oil blends way back in early Jun 22 were trading at ~$115... whereas today many now trade for ~$68-72.

No doubt bound to help a recovering travel sector.

Source: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

MikeS02 - where you said "core inflation reading coming in hot" - that's not necessarily a bad thing for Tui longer term... As I've pointed out before this high inflation climate will see revenues soar, comparatively to the size of debts (even once interest is added). It's quite clear central banks are talk and not enough bite! We're likely to see another 1-3yrs of raised inflation levels and that's why every time these stories cause the share price to dip I am scooping up some more Tui.

Agree with you MikeS02 - I too invested for similar reasons to you and looking around I don't think enough attention has been given to the current 'high inflation economic climate', which stands to turbo charge revenues relative to debts...

Tui board timed this RI very nicely, I think > it draws a neat line underneath pandemic (and post pandemic) losses, their pro-active action to reduced debts, should only amplify what I expect to be successive quarters of soaring revenues (and hopefully therefore plenty of profits too).

I don't know how others see the travel landscape... but right now personally I feel there's a flurry of friends telling me they've booked, or are looking to imminently book, holidays abroad.

No such thing as bad publicity... else Ryanair would've folded many years ago!

Thanks for sharing the Rights Issue Prospectus information. Very insightful stuff! If there was to be a further RI personally I am prepared for that eventuality, I'd intend on fully subscribing to purchase, should that happen at some point down the line. Fingers crossed, let us hope it does not come to that.

@hash - Similarly to you I bought into Tui after consolidation but Pre-Rights Issue... one motivating factor was this RI being a little different to how a typical RI would usually run it's course > as every shareholder, except for Mordashov, stood to exit the RI process (presuming one took up all of their rights) with a slightly greater shareholding, respectively speaking. To me it seemed an opportunity to enter as a brand new and potentially quite long term Tui investor.

Given RI had strong uptake (I forget exact percentage but recall something in high 80's% early 90's%) I'd imagine it cannot be long now for all rump shares to have been sold off. Like many others on here I've been snaffling up more each time the sales peak and the prices dip. Definitely prepared for a long road to recovery.

Does anyone here think the board may go for a further RI down the line? Perhaps to dilute Mordashov some more?

Revision (see RN) shows Alexey Mordashov as having been diluted from 34% down to 10.87% - means the rest collectively see a respective increase from 66% up to 89.13%.

Oil considerably down from 12 months ago... now apparently trading steady around $70 - more sensible prices for airlines/travel to cope with: https://oilprice.com/

Small top up on the dip today, who else has joined in on top ups?

Part of my post here on 26 Apr 2023 16:28...

"As revenues soar ever upwards on the shoulders of high inflation this makes even fairly hefty debts super easy to pay down > since total debts will still grow more slowly than revenues will. So long as companies plan for gradually rising rates over time, they'll find a path to manage the change."

Todays results in RNS > Revenue up 55.2%...

Glad to see this aged well :-)

Perhaps a mug of 'milk in before tea', left out a few days for extra brew time?

Trade may well have only got going proper from mid Feb 23 onwards. With bookings so strong Q3 bound to post solid results so during this sp dip there's good buying 'opportunities'.

Oil down again 2-3% today. Means a drop of around 8-12% (depending on grade) over the last month and a drop of around 30% over last 12 months.

Oil prices coming down a little... bound to support further travel recovery via reduced input costs: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Start-The-Week-Lower-As-Bearish-Sentiment-Builds.html

Made great use of this filter today :-) - lovely!