Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Oil price drop these last couple of weeks will help out airplanes/cruise ships/coaches (albeit they travel firms tend to hedge) with their input costs a little:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Head-For-Second-Consecutive-Weekly-Loss.html

Wife bought some, as a totally new Tui investor... meanwhile I'm pondering another top up...

Cheers Graylady - Filter option has improved my day by at least 60% - No more 'C'

Totally agree Sageman. We hit the slopes with Tui in Mid March. Tui flight and coach absolutely jam packed and the hotel too. Skiing much more niche, harder to sell to the masses. I like the company, had been thinking about buying shares in them for a while. Plus with them being such a big player I cannot fathom a world in which they go bust... they're efficient with their processes, sharp but not ridiculous with their pricing and customers respect them as a company to book time and time again. Has none of the hallmarks of a business about to fold. Covid hit them hard but the bounce back is only getting stronger each day!

I agree with others who've said the supported price appears to be around 510p at the minute. Possibly a small rally/dip ahead of 10th May but most now wanting to view some financials. Given wider positive trends in travel sector I see there being upward momentum immediately ahead of 10th May, with a strong rally from 10th onwards. Anytime it dips prior to 10th May I'll be hovering over the buy button.

Cheers for the tips there Stupmy, i'll bear them in mind - I had been eyeing Tui up for a while before taking the plunge to begin buying some shares up.

Nice! Spotted your trade Stupmy. My Tui holding is tuppenny-ha'penny but starting small and building it up :-)

"heavily indebted" - it's a relative term c2645sg - with inflation running super hot at close to 10% meanwhile debt interest currently still around half that rate... turnover 100% guranteed to be grow faster than debts. Just watch how turbo charged inflation will gobble up the headline debt figures over the coming 12-18 months ahead. The financial update on 10th May will give you a flavour of what is to come ;-)

Fully aware c2645sg - as I said... my initial purchase (post consolidation) was small, the RI small too... I'll be stuffing my Portfolio with as much TUI as I can buy, incrementally, for the foreseeable future. As being a new Tui investor I'll be buying it up and holding it for 20yrs+ - looking forward to when they recover and restore the Dividends as hopefully by then I'll be holding a lot of Tui shares.

c2645sg - Russians previously holding 31% being watered down to 11% - Obviously means everyone else goes from ~69% up to 89% - kinda simples really.

You make me laugh c2645sg - Firstly I purchased post consolidation (before the rights issue)... the small holding I purchased before days ahead of the RI gave me the option to buy a fair number of the 'discounted shares' which in a normal RI is a bit rubbish... except this RI was diluting the Russians holding 31% (down to 11%), so shareholders set to get a small added benefit as the RI favours everyone except the Russians respectively. Plus now I get to hoover up more discounted TUI shares too.

The only thing I'm going to regret in 12 month time... is not buying more ;-)

Topped up on seeing the RNS ;-) - so much for those saying it'll be in the 400's

Completely agree avocet. Tui have been really good with well trained staff. Equally though they have to ensure they have clear/sound/proven strategies for politely turning down very demanding requests from a proportion of 'self-entitled' people. As alternatively Tui staff would find themseleves pandering to every last minute and difficult demand out there, for next to no financial reward.

Certainly come accross travellers with unreasonable expectations of the travel company, who fail to consider how their last minute demand might seem quite simple but can in fact be quite difficult to execute due to admin/practical constraints.

What I have seen from Tui is if you make more reasonable requests with a little bit of time they'll make it happen for little to no cost.

Alans55 - "My mate goes to Cape Verde with them today. They tried to change hotels yesterday"

Issue here is Customer having expectations they can just switch hotel on a whim last minute. Aka in business terms your mate colloquially labelled a '10% er'... 10% of Customers waste 90% of the time/effort/energy of the business.

Have you paused to consider why Tui might not be able to easily accommodate a switch so last minute? Perhaps it's because the hotels are already jam packed, perhaps making a move tricky? Also Tui seemingly spotting the '10% er' customers and managing customer expectations...
I.e. certainly Mr Smith... We can switch your hotel for you easily (if you cough up some cash to cover the admin and inconvenience of our staff doing so). Basically the cost is a deterrent but if paid/compensated Tui will make it happen.

With Tui holiday bookings at 95% plus load and with 'in holiday add ons' going up in price with inflation Tui, just like many other travel companies, will post bumper results. Easier to pay debts down with help from inflation turbo charging overall revenues for every item sold. As one of the largest market carriers they also stand to benefit the most from this effect but it's a trend very visible in revenue growth figures of all the big global firms (well the ones which pass inflation on to their customer base).

c2645sg - From what I read I understood the German government were insisting cash they'd loaned Tui, to get them through Covid pandemic, was required to be re-paid.

A reasonable ask, given Tui now has ~95% full order books, although... maybe the German Government could have granted a little more time for a more orderly repayment with a healthy quarter of profits partially supporting the effort. Though I think it suited Tui board to dilute the Russian shareholders (from ~31% to just ~11%) by blocking them from taking part in the RI too - helpful the recent RI did mean slightly better scenario for existing shareholders than a normal RI.

Feel free to check back in 12 months time c2645sg...

Debts the world over continually grow ever larger, along with inflation increasing and the ever larger size of the global economy too. It's as guaranteed as the sun rising tomorrow morning - e.g. as your income grows over time you need a larger credit card limit.

For those concerned on the debt front...

It's a totally logical concern to have as no one wants to be caught out by debt monsters. Although, there's a huge difference in the factors currently in play given the global economic context at time...

With many massively indebted countries, companies and households across the western world the key central banks are all talk and no bite. They cannot hike interest rates to a high enough degree, else they'll bankrupt the masses overnight. It means high inflation is here for another couple of years to come yet.

Meanwhile for those with foresight... inflation is fantastic for those whom hold a heap of debt they're able to finance... As revenues soar ever upwards on the shoulders of high inflation this makes even fairly hefty debts super easy to pay down > since total debts will still grow more slowly than revenues will. So long as companies plan for gradually rising rates over time, they'll find a path to manage the change.

Shakineven - I'm sceptical about your theory... I've noticed a growing trend among peers... massively cutting down on weekend catch ups here in the UK (with soaring travel, accommodation and other costs). Instead they're opting for week long group holidays in the sun.

mc-hammer - have you factored in the fact the Russians get diluted considerably more so (30-31% or so, down to just 10-11%), which leaves the rest of us rising, from 69-70% or so, up to around 89-90%... once the RI completes and net debt much reduced, together with strong holiday bookings, the forward may well look a lot brighter?...