Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

One to watch, in my opinion, is crude oil prices... they've been creeping upwards and just hit around $85 a barrel... a surge in oil prices could do some damage, though hopefully the prices will remain in a sensible range.

Respectfully disagree Hexam - I think these results are slightly better than it may at first appear. Whole travel sector being on an accelerating rising limb could well mean great things for the year end results down the line. The rising tide of inflation has done exactly what I anticipated, in that it's lifted all boats!..

"Revenue rises to 5.3 billion euros: +19 per cent compared to previous year (4.4 billion euros)" - Soaring revenues help make paying off debts considerably easier (as I've mentioned before).

Rhodes and the UK economic outlook are the flies in the ointment. Yes, Germany has some economic woes with it's industrial sector but the recent results there were MoM which are subject to far greater variability than quarterly results are.

Results right here - released this morning: https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2023/ir-news/20230809

Definitely plenty of manipulation ahead of and following these results today. Glad I held back (I listened to my wife's sagely advice haha!)

I've topped up, anyone else?

Remember to take account of inflation when making comparisons to 2019 when the results land tomorrow morning:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator

Agree with you Mike... far too much sp manipulation going on today for my liking! I opted to just hold (as I have been doing for a while now). I reckon best off holding my cash back for time being, ready for when them market makers drive it right down again. Best of luck all

Big stack bullies are inevitably going to behave in a similar way... Little can be done about it really - aside from spotting it + calling it out as you have rightly done. It's looking like it'll be a bit of a roller coaster ride ahead yet :-/

Because everyone's jetted off for an all inclusive TUI holiday ;-)

Bit misleading there I feel... as both EZJ + Jet2 suffered significant sp falls lately and are currently recovering. Whereas Tui has bobbed down and up but overall has remained at a similar sp price (around 590-610) for that whole time.

More economic weakness on show today > UK house price falls (with LSL Property profit warning), UK Gov Bonds (mostly inverted now) selling off again, £ selling off, German Industrial Production down...

I'm not doubting Tui results will be good on Wednesday but... somewhat difficult to ignore the fact the wider economy appears bound to overshadow this. Many recent positive results for others in the travel sector have seen sell offs on results day... Hoping that doesn't happen for us but fearing it could do. What do others reckon?

More falls tomorrow, perhaps, as gravity of these dreadful forecasts for UK economy sink in:

Anaemic growth, higher bank rates hammering debtors (of which there are many with plenty of debt), high inflation for another 2yrs and yet barmy cries for pay restraint...

Insolvencies, unemployment and foreclosures set to ratchet upwards. UK PLC's Business model is completely broken.

Hi Avocet, IMO They need to get on with it and either trigger a correction in the housing market or, a correction to inflation rates. Since leaving inflation raised until 2025 won't impress investors in UK PLC, similarly allowing property prices to sit way above means for many (down only 4%) just encourages buyers to wait it out...

You say "halfway house was probably the right decision" but more stagnation and kicking of the can down the road doesn't really help with confidence, and ultimately economic confidence is everything.

0.25% Rate Rise... With Inflation not back to target until Q2 2025...

Arguably the worst decision BoE could have made > exposes borrowers to both higher loan + mortgage costs but also to inflation well above target too! Meanwhile investors tipped off that holding £'s will expose them to prolonged high inflation...

IMO the bank needed to have gone bold today, either for 0.5% to choke off inflation, or for a hold to prop up the markets & property. Todays decision feels like it just prolongs the agony for all.

Hold on to your hats! What do you all reckon for BoE rate decision?

Further to fall yet?

Not sure of the reason but it disappeared from there sometime around April/May earlier this year.

UK Gilts selling off again today...

Yields now inverted for 2yr, 5yr +10yr - just the 30yr left hanging around yet to invert (gap closing with each passing day though). £ selling off heavily. Markets look to be at least locking in no more than a 0.25% rate rise, though increasingly appear to be leaning towards a cheeky BoE rate hold?!

Interesting observing sp surge yesterday. Nice of course although, I'm remaining cautious for the minute >

Major western economies look to be a mixed picture with Germany + UK standing out as struggling the most.

UK house prices in significant retreat (4.5% below the August 2022 peak), company insolvencies up (57% higher than 2021), yet CPI inflation stubbornly high at 7.9% (yr to Jun 23)! Economic growth looks to have been consigned to the history books...

BoE faces a v.tough choice...

Hold rates at 5% > £ likely to fall, inflation + Sp's likely to swiftly ramp up! Borrowers green lighted to scoff lots more debt.

Raise 0.25% > might not tame inflation, £ stagnates, Sp's see small gains while businesses and debtors fret about debts.

Raise 0.5% > tames inflation + bolsters £, could well drive indebted business into the ground and trigger market sell offs.

- I reckon a tactical hold is the best option here for BoE... put them printing presses to work! Who cares about inflation and debts anyway?... one for mañana!

Good news about the IAG update and on the back of increased volumes and profits across the board in Travel sector. Nice to see deals done to avert the majority of the Gatwick strikes too.

Though I spotted crude Oil prices have crept up from ~$70 a couple of months back to ~$80-$85 today, hopefully they remain in a sensible range this autumn/winter ahead.