Member Info for Sageman

DHC I am in Angus, Alba and UKOG. All I want to know is the truth. Many things have not made sense post the RNS. I looked at the RNS and read the presentation and ended up confused as to the market reaction. I thought that I had somehow misread ,hence my questioning. PV specifically confirms the multiple well scenario and therefore far higher oil flow and cashflow and says that everything has been valued on a single well basis. Multiple well = higher mcap.

I just listened to his interview . Interesting about Angus but also about UKOG. He confirmed the answer to my basic question that I was asking this morning. He specifically says that the market is pricing based on one well not multiple wells whereas both Angus and UKOG will be multiple wells. Essentially the communication has been so poor that the market has misunderstood the RNS . It was clear from the questioning that the interviewer had misunderstood the RNS too and Paul had to correct how the interviewer was valuing both companies based on flow rates from one well as opposed to that flow rate from multiple well production. We should see a rerate on Monday for both companies.

Hi Rusty, when you look at the permission for circa 3600 BOPD and consider oil flow rates funnily enough you end up with circa 6 wells ( depending on the flow from k4). But later there could be more, transportation is an issue as is managing pressure levels. Lots of questions but between us we seem to be drawing some similar answers. What annoys me is that SS does not communicate more clearly. I always remember studying TS Elliot and the professor saying that what made his poetry so interesting is the lack of connecting matter. The same applies here. We are left trying to work it out when a clear communication strategy would make it easier for us all.

Hi Wizard but that is just from 2 wells. The presentation appears to state that each layer will have multiple wells per Matteth’s post and my understanding in which case the flow rates will be considerably higher than what people seem to be assuming. I am not ramping, I am just trying to understand with the help of some of the most knowledgeable posters here. I get the feeling that I am being thick and missing the obvious .

Matteth, thank you that is precisely my point. But since up to now only I seem to have reached that conclusion it has made me ask the question not just here but to the company direct.

Johnny thanks for the link. I have read it. The question remains about multiple wells as asked yesterday and earlier this morning. I have read the presentation and know what I concluded but given the plight of the Sp am questioning my conclusion. Sadly no one has commented on my conclusion they just post the link! Given the 2016 flow rates they would have only needed permission for circa 1500 BOPD if it was just 3 single wells for each layer. So why apply for 500 tonnes per day (3600 BOPD)? If each well is sustainable ( depending on depletion of pressure) in theory one could drill numerous wells into say K3 or K4 thus giving far higher initial cashflow. Projects lie these are all about cashflow. Oil in the ground is worth nothing. The value is all driven by commercial extraction rates. What I get out of the presentation is questions. SS needs to answer the questions instead of sitting on his big fat salary deploying zero communication skills.

Hi Broca53, I acknowledged your post and said that I too had done precisely that. The material point is that My conclusion is that they can drill multiple wells and thus generate significant revenue. What no one has done including you or SS is to confirm that I have interpreted the presentation correctly. On my interpretation this Sp is undervalued and future exploration can be self financing.

Lots of posters here with claimed technical knowledge but still no one has commented on the presentation in respect of multiple wells and the fact that UKOG have applied for permission to pump circa 3600 BOPD. If what I m reading is sustainable oil per day per well you just drill a number of wells in to each layer to get the desired amount of oil. Clearly 3 single wells would not give enough oil to support drilling plans etc but multiple wells would.

Eranu 342 is what the UKOG presentation states is the "sustainable" flow for K3.

A bit of research shows that in 2016 UKOG planned to pump 500 tonnes of oil per day out of HH. 25 metric tonnes is 173 barrels. Therefore the plan was to produce circa 3500 BOPD. What I do not yet know is whether Portland and K3 could produce this given the intention for "multiple wells" per the presentation. The sustainable production is 220 -240 BOPD for Portland and 342 BOPD for K3. I believe this is per well. Any thoughts?

I have just contacted UKOG regarding the presentation. it says 220-240 sustainable bopd for Portland and 342 sustainable BOPD for K3 .My understanding is that this is per well. It then talks about the concept whereby there are multiple wells at HH. I have asked them to define multiple. Clearly less than 600 BOPD would not sustain current mcap or pay for further drilling. However, multiple wells is a different story. How many wells are expected?

Looking at the presentation I can see why the sp is falling (apart from SOLO etc). It is the lack of transparency and detail. What is required is detail. How many wells we will have at HH on Portland and Kimmeridge. It looks like 562 BB combined for Portland and K3 (with k4 on top). But are they going to have 1 well or 20 or another figure? Once one knows that we can work out cash flow and ability to finance other drilling. Currently the market is thinking placing. However, potentially it could all be self financing. More questions than answers = sp falling. We need a detailed RNS

Financial sector fell generally today due to limited access rules under Brexit agreement. I have been watching this share for months. The company has made a horlicks of its investment platform but is at last getting sorted. Ultimately it pays a good dividend and is at a 2 year low. I think that the correction is overdone and have bought as a core holding for my portfolio. Taking a 2 year view I believe that this will work out well albeit I expect short term volatility.

I think that having shifted the bulk of their holding Solo et al have been selling heavily this week and particularly today with the heavy volume. Traders have been selling too but SOLO have sold lots well above their 1.92 B/E and can thus sell with greater freedom. They no longer need to protect the Sp for further sales . I have monitored this closely since the October RNS. It is impossible to be certain but it would not surprise me if they are done , if not they have few left. Once this persistent selling has gone I expect the Sp to stabilise and recover. Each morning this week their has been heavy selling early doors such that sales outnumber buys by circa 10-15m by circa 9.30am. Today that figure was closer to 20m. Later in the day the buys catch up and the Sp rises only for a second bout of selling early afternoon. It has happened everyday this week.

Rusty, Solo,Gun and Prim have merrily sold into numerous spikes at a profit thus lowering their B/E on their remaining shares. It is thus very possible that they could indeed sell at these levels and be making money. Selling this week has made confident that they are nearly done. When you have a large holding you need to tip toe out so as not to crash the Sp. I would estimate that they are now pretty much done so they can sell more aggressively with less regard for the prevailing price.

Baz, I wish you well but the fact is you only lost when you sold. Up to that point you had a number of shares which had a fluctuating value. If you chose to sell them on a day when the Sp is low you will crystallise a loss. Unless you were forced to sell it is classic PI bad trading strategy sell the dip buy the spike! Professionals buy dips. Only a liar always buys at the bottom and sells at the top. However, if you never over commit and buy dips and profit take you will over time make money. Since mid October I have been buying all sorts of things most of which have fallen further but all of which were considerably more expensive earlier in the year. Roll on K4 ,a broad Xmas rally and a conclusion to Brexit silly season.

Yanis, the slide is due to poo falling, lack of RNS but mainly persistent selling by SOLO et al. I watch the trades as they happen and it has been the same every morning. Incessant selling then the 2m sell. Then a bit of a rally then more selling . Today we had 3 2m sells ( there may have been more but I went out). It is clear that the sellers broker is acting on instructions not to crash the price but to keep selling above a certain price. The original B/e level for sales no longer applies because they sold into spikes. They are thus happy to sell lower. The good news is that once sold they can’t be immediately dumped on a decent RNS.

There is an assumption that as soon as the EWT is finished an announcement will be made. What about independent validation and rigourous scrutiny. Without this an RNS would lack credibility. Hopefully we will see something soon but in the meantime people need to calm down and be patient.

allthatguff, I too was once up in the 5's but i traded the living heck out of it. I now have a B/e of 1.3 on half my holding and circa 1.94 on the balance (where I have topped up recently)..

The SP is currently struggling due to SOLO, POO and the general market but look on the bright side. You only make money or take a loss when you sell. Paper profits are meaningless. So is UKOG about to go bust? NO. Will there be news flow from UKOG over the next 2 years? Yes. Will there be speculation surrounding that news causing SP fluctuations? YES. Will UKOG make you rich? Who knows. What I do know is that I have not lost a penny because I haven't sold and if I am patient I will get plenty of time to sell above my buy in price (sub 2p). I am very patient.