Member Info for Sageman

SB and Tymers we are clearly on the same page. Bring on the RNS’s. Love the action on Wall Street tonight. My “proper” money has been in commercial property all year . I moved a decent percentage to shares at the end of last week in ETF’s. Looking forward to a healthy rise tomorrow in Japan, Eurostoxx and FTSE100. Would love to see SS justify my decision to move profits in GFM in to UKOG. Dream scenario is FTSE100 back to 7500, UKOG 10p then roll half UKOG holdings in to GFM at 87p. I nearly forgot , 10% gains for my clients this year would be the icing on a very large cake!

Tymers my “herd” are the institutions. The money they have make PI’s look like welfare cases and SOLO the small time operators that they truly are. As an example in just one fund INVESCO have over £10bn.....

SB I agree what is happening but to a large extent we have a catch 22. Buyers aren’t buying because they are aware of SOLO. My view is that the RNS’s will do the talking and institutions will buy in happy that SOLO selling is keeping the SP down. PI traders are often looking for the quick buck and can’t see it currently. I have used this as an opportunity to double my holdings. I believe that fellow professionals will follow but as I said at the weekend they currently have other fish to fry due to stock market volatility. In contrast I was already here for gambling rather than investment purposes but the latest RNS is a game changer. This is now an speculative investment. I await the real herd to arrive. This could 5 bag by Xmas or lose 25% in that time. There are Rarely investment opportunities with those odds. GLA whatever your trading strategy ( all IMHO).

Seadoc as a holder may I say that I hope that your shorts don’t just make you lose your shirt but also your trousers! Lol couldn’t resist. SB May I say that in general I enjoy your posts however your rule of thumb regarding UKOG doesn’t really work. We have had some very heavy volume just not everyday and not enough for the Sp to rise when SOLO are offloading millions and traders are selling on to spikes. This will pass. Angus is pushing forwards reflecting what this Sp should be doing in view of the potential oil production. Agree with your post that you would rather be long than short...which brings us back to Seadoc!

Solo need cash and have a B/E of circa 1.5. Their own RNS’s confirm that they will keep some ( possibly circa 50m as those would be free). Happy to see that as we all expected Sp has not risen due to traders and SOLO dumping ie nothing to do with UKOG.

CB I will make this easy for you , but only once. SOLO are selling because they have a B/E of circa 1.5p and need the money. They can get their cash back and hold 50m shares free and thus be 100% derisked. Markets are falling. Pi’s have been selling in to spikes as pure trading strategy. This has allowed people like me to build large holdings with low B/E ‘s ( mine is 1p). The point is that this action has nothing to do with UKOG fundamentals. The last RNS was actually a game changer to which the market has yet to act due to systemic factors above. When serious calculations are done reflecting cash flow from the oil the institutions will start to invest. As they have other things to analyse especially with current volatility UKOG will not be high on their agenda. This gives PI’s a short window to buy. This will always be volatile but the flows from Portland combined with K3 let alone K4 and additional wells turn this from being a money pit to a cash cow. It is onshore so the time to production is short vs offshore. There are I’s to be dotted and T’s to be crossed and it is thus not a done deal but IMHO this is now the best reward/risk investment on AIM. It is worthy of being part of the speculative portion of a balanced portfolio. The last RNS turned this share from being a casino gamble to a speculative investment ( again IMHO). The market has yet to reassess thus making it a PI opportunity.

FWIW every now and then PI’s get lucky. Last year SXX decided to move from AIM to the main market which meant that it entered the FTSE250. At that time PI’s held the shares and the institutions were forced buyers. The SP went up circa 50% and it was a very. I have been heavily trading this share and was happy to sell a tranche bought on the morning of the latest RNS for a quick profit. However, further research and price action has led me to double my holding. This RNS was released at the wrong time - SOLO selling, PI ‘s dumping into every spike and global markets tanking. All of these things are systemic and nothing to do with the company itself. When things settle and the dust clears sober calculations will be done regarding cash flow. Yes UKOG has a good MCAP but with decent cash flow KIM 4 and other self funded drills the Sp has a long way to go. The last RNS substantially derisked the Sp but the Sp has not gone up. The reality is it must. It is now just time before the real money arrives when markets calm done. For my part I have 10m at a 1p B/e. I am not going to ramp I am happy for the RNS’s to do the talking and for sentiment to change in due course.

with the assistance of another poster we worked out that SOLO had a B/E of circa 1.5p. The math was very ballpark. If they want to get their cash back and hold free UKOG shares (note their RNS's say they want to hold some) I estimate that they will retain circa 50m shares. They have thus been happy to sell in to this RNS and would be looking to sell in total circa 170m. I am not sure if they are done. The timing of the RNS was unfortunate given the broader market and SOLO selling. However, the RNS was excellent news. I expect more good news and when things calm down and SOLO is done that the SP will move forward. The £1 club would be nice but I have a more modest target of 4-6p before Xmas .GLA

Thanks idespair I got distracted. The principle is the same though albeit that it means they would retain less shares.

I have been trawling through the SOLO RNS correspondence. It seems that when they converted to UKOG shares they had made a gain of 50%. That was with the Sp at circa 2.2p. It follows that if they can sell north of 1.1p they make money. They said they were keen to see further upside at UKOG and benefit from their shareholding. They held 234m shares. A simple back of an envelope calculation tells me that if they sell 134m shares in the 1.8 -2 region they would have their cash back with the 100m remainder being free profit. I am hoping that they have now finished selling. Does anyone else concur with this simple approximate calculation?

Trades do not always get reported immediately. I am hoping that some of the big buys eg 10m, 8m, 5m are actually SOLO dumping. Let us get rid of these people asap so that the sp can rise properly on good news.Make no mistake the RNS is excellent news.

FJones - that is the mid price you illiterate.. . Send me your email address and I will email over the contract note!

we have a big seller (SOLO) plus PI's who have loaded up with extra and are happy to sell in to any spike - including me. I bought extra this morning at 1.86 and sold for 2. A nice 7.5% profit on 1 million shares. Still hold several.

fjones40 you are making a classic mistake of trying to link a volatile AIM shares current SP with fundamentals. The current SP is due to a major holder being a forced seller and out and out speculation. There are numerous holders who have a core for "the big one" and shares that they buy on dips and sell on spikes. Ultimately the truth will out - good or bad- we could see 1p we could see 6p this year. Eventually the fundamentals will be the driver.

At last some clarity re the sp. Many PI's are buying the dips and selling the spikes but the sp should still have risen more last week. Fantastic that Solo are offloading for their own needs, nothing to do with UKOG. Once they have gone when we get the big K news any spike in the sp will be far higher..

The reality is that DW did a sneaky placing whist we wee waiting for results on IW2. At the time I thought it pragmatic since the SP was at an elevated level. In hindsight possibly the institutions now distrust him. What did he really know? I suspect that far from "listening " to the PI's and wanting to give them a piece of the action the institutions told him they were not interested having been previously mugged. I personally wouldn't trust this self serving pilchard to judge a hamster show. Over rated, over paid and sadly running this company for his own bank account.

DW is a legend in his own underpants and when it comes to creaming anything well that's as far as he goes! I hope to get a spike to sell out of this disaster next year and am unlikely to fund his bonus further by taking up my "discounted" rights. I said months ago when IW2 failed that there were posters here that should be ashamed of themselves. A bunch of clueless amateurs who think that they know something. Luckily I learned my lesson here and have traded the living daylights out of UKOG buying every dip and ruthlessly selling every spike. UKOG have the same type of rampers and pseudo experts at work so it is an easy game. GLA

I am fairly heavy here sitting on a sizable paper loss. I am not unhappy with the RNS (albeit not happy with death spiral financing etc). I think that the key to this is wanting to make this mine of huge regional importance which in turn should unlock government grants for road building etc. We all know that funding is the elephant in the room and that RY has spent ages going to meeting after meeting to get terms. I put this in the bottom drawer expecting news in 2019/2020. This is a fantastic resource, electric cars are coming of age and with them the demand should follow. GLA DYOR

lots of comments here about the sp going down on good news. The answer is traders. Investor might want 1m shares but buys 6.5m shares. On a good RNS 5.5m shares get dumped on the spike. Sp then drops to circa 2p and trader buys again and repeats as often as possible. This makes no difference to the end game and to LTH's but in a world where 92% of exploration co's fail and the name of the game is making money, trading makes sense.In the meantime it is impossible to value this share and it is all about sentiment and news flow..

Have bought back the stock I sold at a 2.6p average for under 2.1 today. This is a traders dream my B/E on 2m stock is 0.25p. Professionals know that 92% of these types of co's do not work out and 8% multi bag. Thus traders play the 10-20% moves buying far more stock than they intend to hold and leave a core holding just in case. IMHO it is this that is holding back the SP because on any good news that doesn't include actual production traders happily take their profits.This ultimately makes little difference to long term holders.