Member Info for Sageman

I have posted on III for GFM for over 10 years. Sadly III have just ruined their discussion boards in the last week or so. I have kept the same handle of Sageman ( not because I am old or wise but because I was at one time part of an investment company calle£ Sage). GFM is my largest single co holding and I have done an unhealthy level of research over the years. It will be good getting to know you. Hopefully some of my former III co posters will join us here.

Over recent months I have done a lot of research into oil wells and fracking but am no expert. From what I have read it is like playing with a box of matches around dynamite. The pressures are enormous and much skill is required. They are therefore treating this with great caution. The fact that all is going to plan and that the game is in play is a massive relief. The SP should have risen on this RNS not fallen , hence why I have increased my holdings

There was nothing in this RNS to justify a tree shake IMHO. Just bought 500,000 and another 1,000,0000. Didn't expect to get to buy at these levels again.Lots of get rich quick merchants going off half cock. GLA

George I totally respect your position. Personally though I just ignore the drivel and read the chart. Do what you have to do.

ROSSO I know we have discovered oil I saw the stuff myself. But we discovered some oil but is it commercially viable? What we do not know is whether the "some oil" is 100,000 barrels or 3bn barrels. As I say the oil we haven't discovered yet will make a big difference to the sp.

George I too totally respect your opinion also. Lefty's comments irritate me but not his charts. I am here to make money and I will take any edge that I can get. This is the AIM casino and pretty much anything goes. High risk, high rewards. I tend to build a hefty stake over time by trading then derisk. But only a liar always buys at the bottom and always sells at the top. This game is about making money, if you get to exchange ideas with a few decent people (as I have with GFM over the last decade) it is a bonus.When I invested this was 1% of my portfolio so I can afford to be very relaxed and just play the game.I feel for those here who are heavily committed and need this to change their lives. Good luck to all - traders and long term holders alike.

Hi Learning, IMHO it is impossible to place a value on oil not yet discovered and flow rates not yet known (plus farm out and Yukon). DW is closer to the action and has made comments that suggested an sp considerably North of here. On a 50/50 2.4p to buy does not reflect enough of the potential upside. Mathematically it makes little sense so there is scope for considerable upside pre flow results. But this is AIM so who knows!

George Lefty's comments may irritate but he does not drive this SP. The service that he provides is to publish charts that professionals use. They are having a party buying and selling this share. A party that PI's are often not able to gatecrash. As we wait for an RNS Lefty's posts are actually more valuable than another post from an oil expert telling you that this will flow. DW says 50/50. DW did not cream the curve but sold 9% just in case it didn't flow at 2.1p. I believe that this will rise pre flow solely because the 50/50 odds are not reflected in the sp because not enough upside is currently included.. I have 7.25m of these and want it to flow.

Following on from my post a 50/50 is normally double or quits. This is currently a situation whereby a poor flow result would see us down in the 1's but with further chances for other flows plus Yukon (so downside 60% but chance to still make money) and upside of 10x plus. The current sp is therefore nonsensical and where money is involved such scenario's rarely persist for long. On this basis alone I have not top sliced any of my holdings.

DW says that this is a 50/50. On that basis the SP should eventually trade like another poster here suggested per the TV show deal or no deal when there are 2 boxed left. If one box had �1m and the other �1 and you are the banker what would you offer the person to take some cash and walk away? Here you can currently pay 2.5p on a 50/50 where the upside is 30p, 50p 80p �1...? Logic dictates that the rules of gambling must eventually apply before flow testing news is known.

Spice, Technical analysis is just another tool which you can use or discard as you choose. I spent 10 years arguing against it and the last 5 years reluctantly accepting it has a role. I have made more money in the last 5 years than in the previous 10! I have almost come to believe that the charts are a pile of rubbish but because so many traders use them they become self fulfilling because people believe they need to sell at 2.9 and do. This years stocmarkets flash crash in February was caused by traders believing that when the US 10 year bond hit 3% the market would fall and so many people sold out in the high 2%�s. In the aftermath people then said what is so significant about 3%? The market then rallied. I take it all with a pinch of salt and just add it all in the mix. Talking about salt , enjoy your Sunday roast!

Hi Stocklife My expectation is that the next RNS saying that we have started flow testing will take us up over 3 but it is just a guess. Prior to the placing the consensus on this board was that pre flow news we would see circa 4.5p. With an extra 9% shares issued that should be closer to 4p. Like many people I have a B/e in the 1�s and lots of people will try to top slice and lock in some gains whilst lowering their B/e on their resultant holdings. There is thus substantial selling pressure but FOMO will intensify which combined with positive news flow should make the 4p a reality this month - but this is just my expectation. I accept that I could be wildly inaccurate but my low b/e allows me to be relaxed.

Mike the current sp has absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals. The Sp has everything to do with sentiment. By definition sentiment is emotion which is illogical. The chart will simply show you how that sentiment ebbs and flows and gives you trading ranges and resistance levels. It is an inconvenient truth that entirely as predicted 2.9p was a resistance point as will be 3.5p. It is also an inconvenient truth that those people who sold at 2.9p and bought back at 2.5p would have 14% more shares. There was no RNS due and the chart was clear. I have learned over time that whilst I may dislike the charts I should both be aware of them and respect them. For the record I hold 7.25m of these and did not sell any at 2.9 because I thought that the last RNS would take us to 3.5p last week. We broke 2.9 and hit 3, hence why I thought we should consolidate in the high 2�s and push on. As I say you look at all the information and make your own choices. It doesn�t mean though you always get it right!

Following on from my post. Personally I dislike charts but I have learned to accept that many other people use them. It could almost be argued that the very fact that some people use them they become self fulfilling. With investment it is a game and you need an edge. If someone has information that you do not they have an advantage. So I am as grateful to the person who takes the trouble to post a chart as I am for the person who has excellent knowledge about oil. How I use that information is my business. I will of course be most grateful to DW if he brings this baby home. The timeframe from here is circa 1 month and depending on the resultant RNS we could multi bag or be at 1p. GLA

I know very little about the oil industry and am thus grateful to the posters here who do. My specialisation is investment. Over the years I have had many spats on these boards with Chartists. My conclusion is that all the charts in the world are useless in the face of a very negative or very positive RNS. However, where they are useful is both pre and post RNS. If you are just working on your research and are happy to let DW enrich you then fine. However, by the same token there are many others who trade in and out and the charts are invaluable. In recent weeks we have had price action from circa 2.1 to 2.9p. That is a near 40% price swing and some people are making money from it. You can get annoyed by Lefty�s posts or you can use them. Personally I use whatever I can to make a few quid. Ultimately our sole objective should be to make money. Everything else when it comes to investment is just hot air.

Hi Garrym, love your posts by the way. What I was getting at is that if a gambler was offered a series of 50/50 bets where each bet paid out 5/1 the gambler would always win over time. In fact for every 2 bets placed on average he would get a 400% return on his money. DW says that this is 50/50 and the returns here are greater than 5/1. It follows that professionals will move in but that they can wait a while.

Given that the placing was at 2.1p and we reached 2.9 there was a chance to make nearly 40% in a month. At current prices there is still good gains. So lots of people with profits and a range of investment objectives profit taking and investing. I know nothing about oil but a lot about investment. We still have 2-3 weeks before flow results so lots of time to take positions so this June 11th nonsense is just plain silly. In a casino people place money on a roulette wheel red/black. Double or quits and there are takers all around the world. People put large bets on horses etc. Well this is a 50/50 where if it flows the multiple is much better than double or quits and even if it doesn't there will be further drills and Yukon so you will get your money back. It is very clear using nothing but the logic that applies to gambling that this SP still has potential to go higher prior to drill results. A few days back people were predicting 4-5p there is no reason why FOMO can't do that but there is no hurry and the tree shake is irritating but understandable.

Yes - so why say just believe?

Mcivorv2.0 I think that you should give LEFKOSIA a break. If DW just "believed" he would not have done a placing at 2.1p! The reality is that whilst we all hope the 88e will be "the big one" it might not be. Therefore rather than just blind "belief" a number of investors employ strategies designed to enjoy the ride whilst mitigating risk. Charts can be a help. If you choose not to use them so be it but a number of investors value them. DW knows that if it doesn't flow the sp will tank so placing 9% when he did was a very pragmatic and shrewd step. Investing successfully takes a lot more than just belief.

Silver trader whilst ultimately the flow rates will do the talking the sp movements in the meantime are very relevant. A 0.2p movement is 10% on a 2p share so for someone who invested �20,000 that is �2000 and a 0.5p movement is �5000 enough for someone to change their car and so on and so forth. Also I don't know why people are getting excited by June the 11th. That is when flow testing starts. I am not expecting results until late June/early July. The point being is that if you are fixated on June 11th it is non helpful. The good thing is that we have had an RNS today and are unlikely to get any further news until next week other than to confirm flow testing has started. Thus we have a period for FOMO to build with a low probability of negative news flow. We got to 3p today but could not hold. I would expect fresh assaults during the week with Friday making it stick. But who knows, after all this is AIM!