Member Info for Sageman

We worked out some while ago that it was unlikely that Solo would be sold out circa mid November in the absence of stellar volume caused by an RNS. I would expect that SOLO have a sell program that triggers at a certain pricing point. This morning the SP needed to climb to reach it. Also remember that it is not just SOLO selling given that it took 10 days 60m when volume was high. There are traders operating too. I find it perplexing that PI's find this hard to understand.

I am happy holding both. UKOG have 5.5bn shares and a mkt cap of 100m whereas Angus have 382m shares and a market cap of 41m. They are linked so good news on one is deemed good news on the other. Thus far Angus has risen on UKOG's coat tails whereas UKOG is paralyzed by sales from forced sellers. UKOG should catch up the %age rise of ANGUS once sellers stop (=4p). I can see money flowing from Angus in November in Anticipation of the UKOG rise and then back to Angus late November in Anticipation of Angus news. Both interesting shares no need to knock either.

Darko this remains a high risk investment. SOLO need cash for Tasmania and it is not guaranteed that this will rise. Also you can only sell what the market volume will let you. Solo have been de-risking and will probably retain a holding - perhaps 50m ? But if it took them 10 days to sell 60m when volumes were high it is unlikely that we will be clear of them until November unless we get a stellar RNS. All you can do is take an educated guess but if you assume that they will sell circa 120m from 15th October they should be done by mid November. In the meantime Angus rises. Expect profit taking at Angus early November to roll back to UKOG. All IMHO

Argus now look at the buys and sells - sells = just under 160m. Also remember not all the sells are solo and it took them 10 days to sell 60m from 2/10 to 12/10.

Wassells, everyone is entitled to their opinion. However, some people never allow facts to get in the way of their opinion. The reality remains that if you totaled up ALL the sales since 15th October they would not equal SOLO's holdings. Trying to search for some deep dark reason for why the sp is not moving is pretty pointless when the answer is in plain sight. Solo will be done in November and the RNS's will dictate the sp.

Seadoc you are clearly shorting and looking for every avenue to talk down the SP. However, you need to read SOLO's RNS's. read UKOG RNS's regarding SOLO holdings and then look at volume of shares traded this month. I will make it easy for you THE SP CAN'T GO UP BECAUSE SOLO HAVE MILLIONS TO SELL. They will be done in November - doh!

Simple question if it took SOLO 10 days to offload 60m shares (on high volume) and on the 12th they had 162m. So do you think they are still selling? To make it easy assume that they may retain circa 50m. The self evident answer to this question tells you why this SP is static whilst Angus is rising and therefore that this is now probably better value then Angus. It also tells you that sometime in November SOLO will be done.

FJ - ok I get it but on the 18th we had 164m shares traded. The volume is healthy what is not healthy is the lack of patience. What few people understand is that SOLO selling at this time has created a very rare buying opportunity. Angus has doubled on the back of UKOG RNS’s. We have not moved. Whilst we can all guess at what level the Sp should be what is clear is that some rise is justified. the lack of a rise = a discount

F.J you do the Math - 162m on 12th per RNS. Then consider total volumes since as available in public domain. It isn’t rocket science to work out that SOLO are still selling. Also consider the broader market as UKOG does not operate in a vacuum. Basically DYOR. Almost everything you need is in the RNS’s with potentially a further 5% here.

Mick2 you seem a sensible type of guy so please do not embarrass yourself with special dividend nonsense. UKOG ( In the absence of JV or takeover) will need all the cash they can get to develop the resources - drilling is very expensive even onshore. Why would they pay a dividend only to then need to borrow or do a placing when the BOD have a duty to drive up shareholder value ? Think about it!

I posted earlier and it has been removed?! FJ you have to consider that we have traders selling ( because they do), volatile markets AND SOLO. Then you have to do some proper work rather than post in the dark. Thus if on the 12th Solo had 162m and it took them from 2/10 until 12/10 to sell 60m shares how many do you think they might still have on the 19th given that 2/10 to 12/10 included a period of high volume and from 15/10 until this am only 132m in total had been sold in the entire market? Institutions are busy elsewhere given what has been a poor month for portfolios so with a heavy seller it takes time to process the volume. If you really want to help yourself try reading SOLO’s Rns’s . In the meantime those looking for a smoking gun are likely to be disappointed. So let me make it clear. We have a forced seller currently unloading in the 1.90’s as quickly as markets will allow. Hope this helps.

There is no fool like an old fool eh older and wiser! I will whisper it quietly K3 and K4. Are you really called rick spelt with a silent p?!

On the 12th of Oct they had 162m. Cumulative total sells from 15th are circa 133m. If we guess circa half could be SOLO that means they still have circa 100m. Note it took them from 2nd to 12th to sell 60m. It follows that their selling continues to hold back the Sp. With K3 and K4 to come I think that downside this year is 1.5p and upside this year is possibly 5 times today’s price (if K4 is good). The risk reward ratio gets better with each RNS and SOLO selling gives the enlightened a chance to buy. Today’s RNS was independently verified so the Telegraph has just proved once again that their financial journalism is dreadful.

Stocktaker I think you need to look again at the maths. It is doubtful that they have been able to sell more than say 50-60m since 12th as my 10am post proves. Forget conspiracy theories and trust the maths and the RNS. SOLO are giving you the opportunity to buy at these prices. Just bought another 1m, it would be rude not to! I can not believe that we are being presented this buying window due to a large forced seller. IMHO this is a very rare opportunity.

It took SOLO from 2/10 to 12/10 to sell 60m shares. As of the 12th they had 162m with probably around a further 100m to sell. Total sale volume 15/16/17 = 60m and total today is 40m so far. That is 100m of which SOLO may be say 50%. By the end of next week SOLO should be gone. Their selling is the sole reason that this is not racing ahead and giving PI’s a massive opportunity to buy. Today’s RNS was what I expected from K3. We have k3 to come plus K4 ( plus others). SOLO are making this Best Buy I have seen this year but I do not expect the institutions to stay away for much longer given this RNS.

Lejjb the definition is correct regarding control of the co and voting rights etc. However, for a PI the dilution is more relevant in terms of the value of each share as a percentage of NAV.

SB is correct about dilution at this the point of share issue. However, what next? If the cash is raised to drill a duster the money is lost, NAV does not rise and you get more shares for the same NAV. Take a look at 88e for a prime example where they have a guy called DW who is what Mourinho would call “ a specialist in failure” running the company. He raises money to pay himself and drill holes with no resultant commercial conclusion just endless dilution. In contrast we have UKOG - enjoy the ride.

The BBC have become a disgrace infiltrated by some pretty dreadful people. They give us the likes of Saville and try to make the news instead of reporting it. Grenfell Tower was a prime example May turned up to check that the emergency services had what they needed. In contrast Corbyn turned up at what he saw as “the gig” for a photo shoot and the BBC made him the good guy. License should be abolished and status downgraded to reflect the shambles that it has become. Too many people with serious issues allowed into a position to spread their bile to the detriment of our wider society.

I read some of the posts here and scratch my head in disbelief. We worked out some days ago that SOLO had a B/E of circa 1.5p ( less now due to selling above that level) and that they were forced sellers due to Tanzania. They will probably retain some per their own RNS about future participation but probably still needed to sell circa 100m at last UKOG RNS. Look at the volume and remember that other people will be trading too and it is clear that in the absence of a major RNS it will take them time to reduce their holding ( end of next week?). In the meantime all is well at UKOG but the share can’t rise until the selling stops or new buyers emerge. I await k4 results and the arrival of the institutions in the meantime Pi’s are lucky to be able to buy at these levels. Angus is already on the climb whereas this is temporarily being held back by factors that are nothing to do with UKOG.

Hi Tymers the 10% for clients is very hard. Remember that FTSE100 started this year at over 7600 and China is down circa 35% and the fixed interest sector is negative this year. Then remember that a medium risk investor would expect to have only 60% in shares. The other 3 asset classes are cash, FI and property. Then remember that charges apply and then you realise that 10% is a massive ask. Realistically any positive gain for the year for clients will be a good result. In the world of regulated financial advice we simply do not gamble with client money unless the client has an extremely high risk profile. In reality most clients have a conservative/ balanced core and wish to beat inflation and cash.