Member Info for Sageman

Firstly you only make or lose money on a share when you buy or sell. I hold 8.25m at circa 2p and thus far have not lost a penny! I held 500,000 ukog at 4.5p. I now hold 3.5m at 2.09p and am looking to make money next week. I will sell some into the rise. I got caught on 88e expecting 3.5p with sells set at 3.25p. The IW2 drill results were more negative than expected. Where to now with 88e ? Well I am not expecting news on the drill until late July. But there are other plays afoot. My rule is to invest in companies with enough cash not to go bust - so the game continues. Then buy on dips and sell into spikes. I bought this at 0.9p and sold the tranche at 1.6 to derisk - hence current position. If I see 1p again I will buy another 8m. This is just a game. The game is about making money. The rest , including the majority of what I have read here, is utter rot.

I took advantage of the sell off to top up under £1.30. With Zinc and warehouse stock levels seemingly stable I think that the mm tree shake has gone too far. I asked Roger if he knew any reason for the sell off and I received no reply. Just an observation whilst reading the posts here. The license is not for a new mine it is for an additional zone for this mine. This will allow us to double production (per RNS). The price of zinc remains critical to long term profitability but as a debt free player with zinc and gold at current prices GFM are enjoying good times. Roll on August and the dividend.

I sold a tranche just below 2p expecting resistance. Bought them back again just below 2p after we went sailing through 2p and dropped back. Now that 2p has been broken decisively I added another 2m shares. The 2p barrier was a risk, it isn't now.

The fall in the Sp is clearly due to Panmure and the sharp fall in the price of zinc over the 2 weeks. However, my view remains that below 1.60 there is nothing in the Sp for dividend or license. The license would see production double without a corresponding increase in the magnitude of costs. This half year ends on 30/6/18 with GFM having had a good trading period with zinc at one point circa 20% higher than now. GFM are debt free and very profitable. I expect a dividend. I also expect little communication from the BOD - things don’t change. But our BOD have shed loads of shares and their objectives are aligned with ours. Unlike most AIM stocks there is no dilution and few tradeable shares. If the Sp falls GFM just buy up the small amount in circulation on the mm books. We have seen tree shaking earlier in the year with falls of this magnitude but always followed by a bounce. With results expected in early August any falls are a buying opportunity.

I said that the RNS of 22/6/18 meant that things were delayed and we now have confirmation. I am no expert on fracking but it was very clear that this was progressing far slower than expected by DW. Also it was clear that the team were treating the well very carefully so as not to impact long term commerciality. DW is no longer "pleased to announce" and is talking about a potential farm in. His fund raising at 2.1 now looks astute since cash = options. My view is that this is far from dead and that one way or another oil will flow. I said on the weekend that i did not expect results until July and that has not changed. Luckily this is not a one trick pony and I still believe that 3p is attainable this year. In the meantime I will put my shares in the draw and look to trade and de-risk as always. I hope that the rampers feel ashamed of themselves and that people who scoffed at Lefty now feel somewhat foolish (and probably poorer).

MM for my part I am just trying to understand and learn. I also want to have reasonable expectation and don't want to be waiting impatiently for "expected" information that won't arrive for a while. I would rather chill as would others I expect. The flow rates in the RNS clearly show that news should not be expected for circa 2 weeks (and that is if they double current flow rate back and return to the average). I find this knowledge useful . At this stage though I do not believe that the delay will have a material impact on the final outcome but the delay impacts the the short term sp.

MM I am a big fan of DW but if he gives a projection of 14 days it means that he expected 1658 plus 1100 barrels to have flowed in that time = 2758 barrels vs 1100 in 11 days. He has stated reasons in the RNS for the current position. It is clear to anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of the English language that this is taking at least twice as long as expected thus far. It is thus NOT as expected! I now understand why the SP has fallen. I also now understand why people have backed off. It is clear that there remains plenty of time to climb on board. As I say not ramping not deramping just plain old number crunching based on an RNS using numbers in plain sight.

MM I have just read your post about growing up etc. All I did was some math based on what DW put in an RNS. It is factual. It is not deramping. Just plain cold fact.Your comment was uncalled for especially since I have 8.25m of these!

MM the reality is that what it means is that everything is not as expected. DW expected this to take 14 days!! Clearly things have been far more difficult than expected. That may make no difference to the end game but it means that all the "as expected" tripe is wrong. I am happy that they are managing the situation and protecting the well.

further to my post based on the 22/6/2018 RNS. 6652 barrels= 24% therefore 8290 = 30%. From 12th to 21st we pumped 1100 = 122 bpd. Current RNS says 50 BPD. Therefore we are 1658 barrels short of DW 30% target which based on the above means 14-30 days. I remained surprised that no one else has mentioned this.

A bit of math reveals that 30% target is 8290 barrels and we are 1658 short. We have averaged 122 bpd and are currently pumping 50 bpd. It is clear that we remain 14-30 days away from the 30% target. This is not necessarily a bad thing but means that things have been harder than DW expected given that we should now be only 3-4 days away.

PI's are currently being made fools of here. MM's know that news won't arrive until the 25th at the earliest (per DW). There are lots of people with stop losses to protect profits b/e's etc. So MM's drop the price, collect stock with a view to then pushing prices up closer to end game on FOMO. What I like about this stock is that whether it flows or not there will be other opportunities to get your cash back (3d, Yukon, conventional). But also that DW is keeping it real. He knows his limitations. He wants to make the discovery and sell to a big player. The nightmare is when a tiny explorer makes a discovery and then wants to develop it. I am very happy here and have seen nothing in the volumes of shares traded or in the RNS's to concern me.

In terms of trading there are the chartists and there are stop losses neither of which have anything to do with the company. There are also the active traders happy to pick up 10,20,30% in a few days on their punt and move on. I expect proper news late June/early July and I believe that the professionals will be in place at that time. They always are!

It is clear that the SP move has nothing to do with fundamentals but everything to do with trading. 2.1p to 2.9p is a 38% move. Buy £100,000 at 2.1p and sell at 2.9p means you make £38,000 not 0.8p! There are many people who purchased this trade. Possibly they sold half on a double already and are now on free carry. Don't know if the well will flow so why not sell some free shares to lock in a profit? Lots of other scenario's where people have top sliced and are sitting on profits with B/E levels under 1p. No one ever got poor taking a profit and that is what is occurring. ultimately though if one takes the risk and it flows combined with good 3d figures the reward will be far greater. Every one has their own agenda and the current sp , whilst annoying, will be irrelevant oce results are known.

Hi Lefty. I used your chart but since 2.9 was mainly a resistance level because That was where the sp was when the placing was announced I ignored it ( to my cost) and instead focused on 3.5 as my derisking point. I was happy to buy more at 2.1 such that I can now derisk at 2.9 with the same profit as 3.5 previously. I will hold the bulk of my shares long term. I find charts useful but you do need to wind it in a bit.

The SP dropped immediately the RNS was issued and has continued thereafter mainly on technicals and people derisking and taking profits. At the time of the RNS there could not have been additional unknown information IRO the flow testing. It follows that it is unlikely that continued falls have anything to do with IW2 and everything to do with trading. We are still only 5 days on from beginning the flow test. DW said it would take 14 days to get results and we know that initially all we would get was frank fluid. I await an RNS update which will hopefully confirm pressures are fine and that hydrocarbons are present which would be encouraging but in the meantime am very relaxed. Like GARRYM I topped up my holdings because the RNS itself represented a substantial derisk. When they restarted the flow an awful lot could have gone wrong yet the RNS confirmed that all was going to plan. Th SP reaction has been disappointing and a surprise but this is AIM and we are dealing with sentiment. As sentiment has never been logical I am not wasting my time looking for answers. The answers will be contained in RNS’s. GLA and try to ignore both the tampers and the derampers. Investment is about research, diversification and patience. You will never win them all but with a sound strategy you should win more often than you lose.

DW said we would expect results in circa 14 days from 11th June. I expect to "know" around the 25th. In the meantime we have had an RNS saying all going to plan. I remain mystified by current SP action. It just goes to show that lots of people bought at low levels and can top slice and derisk even at these levels. Ultimately that may be a good thing for the SP once news breaks. In the absence of an RNS speculation is pointless and a complete waste of time and energy.

Hi Creator III also have discussion boards. These used to be excellent but their recent “ upgrade” is a disaster. Posters like me are deserting in droves. The Chubster was notorious re 88e and then his son the Chimp took over. I have kept my same identity so that anyone can check me out. I am a wealth manager and have a simple rule that I would never write a post that I would be embarrassed about if a friend or a client read it. Sadly too many posters think that anonymity gives them an excuse to indulge the depths of their personality and display their ignorance and intolerance.

Bizzie just hope that you haven’t come over from III and that daddy is the Chubster and you are Chimp.!?

Garry with the absence of Brom Imfind your posts to be by far the most helpful and am reassured that my reading of the RNS was in line with yours such that we both bought more thereafter. We still do not know if this will flow commercially but for my money our 50/50 just went to a 60/40. Having traded Aim for years I often find that the sp has little correlation to underlying value. This may still turn out to be a poor investment for me but of the companies I have researched it offers the best risk/reward ratio. Even if IW2 fails there will be other bites of the cherry and a chance to come out unscathed. I remain puzzled by the SP but happy to buy on dips.