Member Info for Sageman

Santamaria, I have been buying on dips but with a trend going downwards short term trading is difficult.I could very easily short it but I believe this to be a very high risk strategy with an RNS due soon. The charts say short but nearly 40 years of experience tells me not to with an RNS due especially because they are drilling something which is known to flow..

As Stockopedia shows, this currently fits shorting criteria and will do until the trend is broken. With Solo pretty much done now there is significantly less selling pressure on news. The shorters will continue until we get a stellar RNS. If that happens they will get taken to the cleaners. So trolls do your worst. I am long and believe that K4 will do fine. If it doesn't I will put it in the draw and wait for Portland and K3 production to drive the SP in 2019/2020. For me the high risk play currently is shorting. Time will tell.

Darko, that is one thing we nearly both agree on “ we are all mugs to be on AIM”.... I would add one word “probably “!

Santamaria I am not sure why you mock Rodgers. Much of what he posts is actually factual based on what we are told by SS and in RNS’s. Yes he believes in UKOG but based on research not blind love. As long as SS has told the truth the losers will be the shorters.

Hi Darko, forgive me if I m wrong but I believe that the production from the Portland was independently verified. I told you earlier today that on top of the Solo selling we have the likes of Stockopedia saying that this stock fits their shorting criteria. So we have Solo plus shorters creating a perfect storm. Shorting needs technical analysis which is based on trend lines. UKOG shareholders need something that those trend lines can’t forecast....an RNS! You can bring all the bile and carp you like to,this board but if the K4 RNS is stellar shorters will be burned. There is a reason why the so is falling and it has little to do with fundamentals.

Chaebol, you say that "the smart money" disagrees with me. Traders and shorters rely on graphs. They get caught out by RNS's particularly in small under researched companies like this. Whether the "smart money" was "smart" at all will soon be known as the RNS's flow. My view (per the SS presentation) is that the current sp and Mcap is 100% supported by Portland and K3 (irrespective of short term movements). Accordingly given other potentialities this stock offers one of the best risk/reward ratio's on AIM at this time.I can afford to sit on this for 2 years albeit would like to see the sp rise far sooner!

Hi Boyzee if you look at the mcap of Manu and that of Man City a decade ago you will see that the analogy is not a bad one. In the meantime (keeping the analogy alive) would love to see UKOG become a Premier league oil producer. In the meantime I look forward to RNS about K4.

Boyzee, I have checked out HUR and prefer UKOG. I saw a post from you before about this and their 17000 BOPD. But market cap is circa 8 times higher. Then divide BOPD by 8 = circa 2126 BOPD per day for comparison. Then look at Portland, K3 and K4 and multiple well scenario. A bit like comparing Manchester City with Manchester United before City got the cash rather than Barcelona with Gateshead. UKOG's "train is just leaving the station" - the potential is huge.

Chaebol, at least you admit to being a deramper! There is only one thing wrong with your post. You said that this IS a dog with fleas. You should have said that i WAS a dog with fleas.If you just look at the charts and do not do the research you fail to keep up and lose money. Things changed with Portland and K3. However, helped by SOLO the shorters didn't need to take notice. K4 if commercial will i believe see massive volume,a re-rate and a shorters bloodbath. The bulk of my position has been built post Portland.

Subito, shorters tend to use charts and algorithms. Whilst those charts suggest that shorting will be profitable they continue. MM's can widen the spread to discourage it. However, what would most likely stop it here is a stellar RNS that leads to a sp break out. Shorters would then lose money but more importantly the sp would no longer qualify for shorting due to the chart break out and they would move on to easier prey.

Will I saw that but mine was definitely a buy.In terms of the short term sp I am not sure how many people here subscribe to Stockopedia but UKOG qualifies for James Montier's unhealthy trinity for short selling. Thus shorters are definitely out in force. BUT the algorithm does not take into account what is going on at the company regarding Portland, K3/K4 etc. I am thus unconcerned and am treating this as a buy in opportunity

Just topped up another 1m. Couldn't resist sub 1.60

Daltry, Will may or not be a financial genius, I have no idea. In contrast we can all work out where you are positioned in the financial literacy world.I wish you well but remain happy with my UKOG holdings.

Brombard . There is an old saying “ show me the money”. The only money seems to come from placings. Lots of progress per your posts but no oil and no money. The response of Pi’s to the “discounted” placing speak volumes. Lots of talk , lots of promise but thus far nothing that generates hard cash. People can talk about doing business all day but commercial value ultimately depends on results. I can put data in to a data room all day long but it doesn’t mean that I get any resultant cash. This is currently not an investment it is solely a gamble.

I am not selling and cross my fingers but I compare and contrast this with UKOG and hope that DW will achieve similar redemption as SS. 18 months ago UKOG was failing Today their mcap is only 50% higher than 88e. The difference is they have struck oil with 2 commercial wells with results on another o/s. They have cash coming in and a B/e of $17 per barrel. SS remains untrusted and the Sp reflects that. I see good things for UKOG in 2019 and have genuine hope for a multi bag. It is actually the UKOG experience that gives me some crumbs of comfort here . Their Sp went from double digits to sub 1p. I cross my fingers that with farm outs , good fortune and perhaps a JV that 88e will find their mojo. I would like to think that in spring 2019 things may turn but I am resigned for the long haul and can only hope that whoever 88e pairs with they have the skills that DW sadly lacks.

Hi Brom, what has changed so much? The Sp for one, more fund raising, continued inability to move the projects forward with real solid jv or farm in partnerships. Is that enough for you! You can also add that comments regarding IW2 and what a lot we learned etc are pretty meagre crumbs compared to what was hoped for. In the meantime we keep paying the incompetent fool who continues to talk a good story but delivers nothing but failure , excuses and delays. I cross my fingers and hope but with no confidence.

Brocal, most people here will keep/build a core and trade the balance. Given the current Sp any other strategy would probably be one that is a losing one. I made my 1st purchase at 5.5p and thus without an active trading strategy I would currently be substantially underwater as opposed to just about breaking even. Ultimately this is about making money so each to their own. The only people I can’t tolerate are the deceitful posters who say one thing and do the opposite.

I only check in here from time to time. Like many others I am trapped not wanting to take a hit on my holding and kicking myself for listening to DW but crossing my fingers that perhaps after all there was something worth investing in. My hope is that in the spring things pick up and some shareholder value materialises. Thus far all I have witnessed is abject failure and comments about creaming the curve are wearing very thin as evidenced by the legions of PI’s who did not take up the kind offer of the placing. I await action not words and so does the city. DW needs to actually deliver sadly I believe that he is so incompetent he would struggle to deliver a pizza!

FWIW If you buy a share at £3 and it rises to £4 it is the same %age rise as if you buy at 1.5p and sell at 2p. I think that too many people here are obsessed about making a fortune and belittle those who take a bit of profit as they go along thereby progressively derisking their holdings. I agree that this may be holding the Sp back short term but each to their own and if in x years time this is the “gusher” we all hope and cashflow and profits are stellar it will make no difference. I have been here for circa 1 year and the only reason I am sub 2p is by trading the heck out of it in common with many others.

We can all sit down and push numbers in to a spread sheet based on multiples of wells which we hope we will appear and success with K4 and other projects but what should the sp be now? SS said very clearly that with what we proven already the market cap should be £200m plus based on DCF and NPV. We are currently less than £100m. It follows that the sp should be 4p. Then it is down to sentiment and the potential value of other projects. It is currently a bit like buying an Investment trust where negative sentiment means that it is trading on a 50% discount to NAV. As I have said before unless SS is telling lies this is a rare opportunity because K4 should be commercial and is clearly not priced in. Sentiment can turn overnight. In time we may all be grateful that SOLO dumped and depressed the price thus allowing us to build our sub 2p holdings.